Agree with AKD. Value is everything and a side issue is that if you are constantly beating the book you know you are on the right track. a 2/1 winner can afford to lose twice before hes ground zero. A 16/1 winner can afford to lose 15 times. So if you are constantly backing 10/1 shots at 33/1 (with luck of course but lucks needed on a an odds on shot...ask Apples Jade!) , well it doesnt need explaining. Yes youve got to win or place but if you are on a 10/1 shot (at 33/1) the chances of placing , mathematically at least, are higher and youve got a fabulous reward, Gambles do win as we know, but silent gambles win more
I usually deal in prices 5/1 plus and they have to be value or i dont bet (or something exceptional like Champ). I imagine AKD is the same. If i think the 2/1 shot is 5/1 in my tissue i cant back it but if i think a 6/1 shot should be 3/1 ill back it. Its not rocket science.
Thats why you take losers on the chin. The bigger the prices, the longer the losing run, but the rewards enable you to build profit rather than just floating around break even on false short price horses.
you can sometimes apply this theory with trainers. Roger Varians for instance. invariably shorter than they should be, so ill target a race where he has a runner knowing there will be value in the rest of the field. he had a big rep runner on Tues (i think) that had achieved nothing but still went off 8/13 so backing the 2nd fav or 3rd fav at 4/1 and 6/1 wasnt too difficult decision as the tissue had the 4/1 shot at 6/4 , then Varians and the 3rd fav 3/1...value, and guess what the Varian horse gets easily turned over 9in fact it was third). Yes, he will also win (good trainer) but the rewards are poor as his stable dogs bark the loudest in Newmarket !
So value is not an exact science, but if your constantly getting value (and with a fair wind), you will make money