BEST of the BETS

I normally look at how the horse runs at a specific time of the year. Never looked at trainers. Interesting all the same.

Good post, it’s another piece in the puzzle isn’t it. As it’s a stat it’s important to check the statistical significance, if your using flat stats then it’s the exp and Archie figures. If most of his runners are outsiders in the betting then it may not be significant, but if a lot of his runners are fancied and don’t run well in a certain month then there could be something in it.

With regards Archimedes I think the drift is excessive and if it’s just due to market forces then he looks a good bet at 20-1. He was 7-2 fav at the off the other day and a line can be put through that run as it played up in the stalls and the blind was removed late, hard to see why it’s 20-1 today, but if it’s 20-1 because everyone knows the trainer stops training them in October and sends them out in the field to enjoy the good life then it’s a different matter. You can get yourself into knots with stats like this, it’s hard to see the wood for the trees, he has had winners in November


It’s a long way from the Griffiths yard and I’m sure there were similar races he could have chucked his two runners (Fieldsman, 330) in at catterick if he is just running them down the handicap. Good luck if
you play.

Nice post. Yes I look at this stat sometimes, and I think it is relevant. My stats say that Griffiths is 3 from 92 in October but it’s because they include Irish runners too and he is 2 from 2 with runners he has sent to Dundalk in October. If you notice that Griffiths doesn’t get many winners on first run of season. Majority of his winners tend to have had between 1 and 6 starts in the season. His best months on flat are July to September, and then his all weather runners start winning from November with better strike rate from January through to March. It does explain the poor October as his flat runners have had enough for the season and all weather runners will probably need their first run.

Thanks, interesting thoughts. Now 25/1 dthe drift does seem alarming.

Really interesting stuff AKD. I have a lot more work to do as I just pulled basic stats off the RP. Food for thought though :chin: :up:

Wotadoll trainer sounded very confident, she’s rated 61, they have her in a listed race on Saturday!

Won the race last year under Winston too :up:

I've done Ask the Guru EW. Archimedes running loose but will run. Wotadoll won race last year looks fancied. Impart was the paddock pick.

Well done Owen 2nd

taken from the adrian massey site

Bit late sorry, address
http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/

Well a big priced 2nd and 1st (Fieldsman) Griffiths certainly has that October monkey off his back in 2018.

Anyone brave enough to back the rest of his?

Massey still going then, brian? Thought he'd stopped updating his site years ago.

Its always been there but no horse ratings anymore.

As most are aware i only back horses that are over 10/1 in the betting as a rule....a couple of factors that are of very little consequence to me are a TRAINERS FORM, i simply don`t believe it has the significant bearing that pundits would like you to believe....David GRIFFITHS trains about 8 miles away from me and in taking 2 horses 225 miles to Brighton on a tuesday is very interesting,hence i was all over FIELDSMAN 20/1 and it duly obliged,probably because its got a good record at the track and ALL its 3 previous WINS were above CLASS 6.....for me its 90 per cent about whether the horse is WELL WEIGHTED and likes the course and ground.,regardless of his trainers record,after all the trainer ain`t riding the horse.

I do this when i have time, None lately tho, But for the start on November i will have a list of trainers who do well that month, At least 20% sr and profit and follow them with another list of present trainers in form,

Thanks for the responses folks :up: Griffiths kind of answered my question for me today!!! haha :lol:

Good thread... with some good and sensible reasoning. WD all :up:

I think a big factor that hasnt beren mentioned is the type of trainer and type of horse. A big trainer may be targeting a certain period/race/month eg a trainer who likes to run his quality horses in the big back end 2yo races or like Channon, will view Ascot in June and stealing a march with his 2yos as they are fitter than anybody else's in March April May. Barry Hills used to almost close his stable for a month for the rapeseed harvest once he discovered thats what was "infecting his stable"...the same with Charlie Hills who is firing again after a lull. Then you get big yards having a clear out of dross in Sept/Oct hoping they may sneak a win or Ian Williams or Pipe buys them to go hurdling.

So you need to be careful with "in form", it can be misleading. Nicky Henderson gears his horses for 2 meetings...Xmas meeting at Kempton and Cheltenham so no point having a flood of winners in October! Skeltons winners will start to die off now the big boys are starting their season, much like Pipe used to until he started getting better horses.

So I think a better method of "when in form" is to deduce trainers plans from their virtual stable tours...you will find a pattern emerging regarding the prep races etc Also consider the stables who "have to win" rather than the ones "qualyfying" for races further down the road. The Twister is a good guide. He rarely sends horses out for the run or place, he wants to win , thus they will be trained to the minute. King doesnt mind losing a few to land a big one later. Also learn about the trainers and their trends. Nicky will almost always put up Nico on his chasers as he is a fine horseman but will use David Bass on some of his more nervous hurdlers as hes got good hands but also a bit of an enforcer! Mcgrath will get used on the lesser horses that nether the less want to win.

King was easy to read. Choc on his quality , Hutchinson on his hurdlers and hcappers and Bellamy on his hidden ones. IOther trainers do the same. Tom o Brien will probably win more hcap hurdles for Hobbs than Richard Johnson.

So as someone said earler its another piece in the jigsaw but not an important one. The more obvious is when a stable just cant buy a winner. Meehan was like that earlier but is now running some nice 2yos he wanted to run earlier but couldnt as the yard was suffering.

Another thread i like is when a stable has had a poor season, it naturally means their horses may be well hcapd the following season when hes back to form. Henry candy proved that a couple of seasons ago when we had a rare old time backing his last season losers at big prices the following season!

Nice thread and hope theres more like this rather than the bland "this will win" or "info"