BEST of the BETS

Great SF dividend

Griffiths has 3 runners tomorrow, and on paper all 3 look up against it but I have had small bets on 2 of them.

1:45 Southwell - Bawtry Lady (33/1), she is only rated 49 and has to race against a few of these rated in 60s and 70s tomorrow so this is no easy task, but she does seem to like this surface as has outrun her big odds on all 3 runs here including when placed 3rd at 50/1. Drops to 5 furlongs for first time which is probably worth a try, and I have had a small each way on this.

4:25 Chelmsford - Mystical Moon (25/1), yet to place from 11 starts and it seems they are still trying to work out what her distance is, had no chance in novice events last twice but ran ok enough and this is even weaker than her last handicap so nothing is impossible. Tries the polytrack for first time tomorrow and that will need to bring about improvement. Small each way more in hope than expectation.

5:25 Chelmsford - Red Cymbal (33/1), his only win to date came at this track in a novice race, but that’s the only positive I can see as he continues to run disappointingly. This is only slightly weaker than last race, but he was beaten too badly. I have left this one, but knowing my luck this will probably be the one that wins lol.

All 3 unplaced today.

Just one runner tomorrow, and it’s Archimedes trying to complete a c&d hat trick having won the last two here. I haven’t yet decided whether I am going to back it or not, but will put the facts up to help others decide for themselves. He has gone up to a mark of 67, previous highest he has ever won off is 66 so needs to produce a career best. He is clearly in form, against some out of form horses, this is actually weaker race than the last one but that means he has to carry a huge weight of 10-2. No prices available yet. I will need to see the prices and also look at race in greater detail before deciding whether to bet or not.

7:15 race

I decided to leave Archimedes, so it will probably go and win now.

Two more tomorrow

2:30 Lingfield - Tavener, very difficult to fancy on recent form
6:45 Chelmsford - Pearl Acclaim, won for us last time at Southwell, but is 0 from 11 on polytrack (has placed 5 times on it though)

I won’t be backing Tavener, and undecided about Pearl Acclaim

Good luck if backing.

Archimedes lost his jockey at the start, I feel bad for anyone who backed it.

Missed his runner today although it finished 12 of 13.

He has 3 going tomorrow. already taken the 6/1 Bet365 on Warrior's Valley. The 2nd on looks to have a tough task and Archimedes is up in grade but could go close if not tossing the jockey off.

13:35 31/01/19 Warrior's Valley Southwell, 4f 214y, C6 6/1
14:40 31/01/19 Bawtry Lady Southwell, 6f 16y, C6 20/1
17:50 31/01/19 Archimedes Newcastle, 5f, C5 11/4

Thanks, Doubler. I had seen today’s runner but didn’t feel it had a chance that’s why didn’t post. I agree with you about tomorrow’s runners, Warriors Valley looks to be his best chance of winner, down in class and he has been dropped another 2 lbs since last run.

Another winner!

Heavily backed to 5/2, was 6/1 last night. Thanks, Doubler, for posting early.

Two runners at Southwell tomorrow

1:35 - Pearl Acclaim (8/1), poor at Chelmsford last time but all 4 all weather wins have come here, including in a weaker race two starts ago. I am pricing up this race for other thread, so will be able to say more about his chances in morning.

2:35 - Ornate (2/1), is obviously a good sprinter and he should be thereabouts again, and price reflects this.

I have had a small bet on Pearl Acclaim, it has got a lot of positives including being one of the few that have shown form this season. But it is a very open looking race, I made it a 13/2 shot so no great confidence. It is drifting, which may be a negative, and available at 12/1 now.

Really fancy Ornate today. GL

One tomorrow @ Newcastle

5.45 Archimedes looks to have a fair chance, 5/1 taken.

One runner today

Tavener in the 8:15 at Wolverhampton

I don’t really fancy it on form, but there is apparently a bit of early gamble going on this one, over 30% of the money matched in the race on Betfair has been on this horse moving the price from 14.5 to 8.0

Very well handicapped on passed form, now.

Seems to have been fading over 6f but is running over 5f tonight, must be in with a good chance.

You could be right, most of his wins have come over 6/7 though, 1 from 14 over 5f, agree with you he is certainly well handicapped. Money has kept coming for it, and that could be significant, £6,356 out of £15586 (41%) matched on him, which is quite high. I have left it, especially now that the price is gone but good luck if backing.

Griffiths has been quiet of late, but has a couple of runners tomorrow. No prices available yet.

3:30 Lingfield - Tavener, continues to drop down the weights but just isn’t showing enough to suggest his turn is near, so I am not backing him but good luck if you do.

6:15 Chelmsford - Warriors Valley, back up in class after winning last time, but he won well so I think he will go close but will probably be a shortish price.

Made the right decision to leave Tavener, but he ran better than he has for some time to finish 5th in a bunch finish, so maybe next time.

One runner tomorrow

Ornate goes for the Listed race at Lingfield (2:05) but he is rated 14 lbs lower than the favourite on official ratings, so looks up against it.

Tavener is out again tomorrow, as I did say last time I will back him next time. It’s 6 furlongs at Wolverhampton (5:00), last time he ran over this c&d, he won by 3 lengths from 10 lbs higher mark (January 2018), so must have a chance now that he showed signs of return to form last time. Price of 4/1 (Betfair) a bit shorter than I would like though considering he hasn’t won for a while, will wait till other bookies have priced up the race.