BEST of the BETS

The draw. Very important at some courses. And time figures for me.

course winner 6
distance winner 6
class winner 8
trainer stats 7
jockey stats 8
trainer/jockey (combi) stats 5
tissue price 10
form figures 8
draw 8
run style 10
speed fig 9

1 course winner - 7 (higher at certain courses)
2 distance winner - 7
3 class winner - 7
4 trainer stats - 5
5 jockey stats - 7
6 trainer/jockey (combi) stats - 5
7 tissue price - 8
8 form figures - 8
9 draw - 6 (although depends on course and race conditions - Chester / Beverley I would say 8+ for example)

Lots of links between them in terms of how I personally pick my selections. I try and focus on using my adjusted forecast RPRs (not as scientific as it’s sounds) and link in class, c&d preferences and jockey booking (or blindly backing Ben Curtis aw rides at bigger than 5/1 for a month between mid Jan and mid Feb as it’s also known)!!!

1 course winner - 2
2 distance winner - 4
3 class winner - 6
4 trainer stats - 1
5 jockey stats - 3
6 trainer/jockey (combi) stats -0
7 tissue price 5
8 form figures 10

Ratings.

sorry alanb not quite sure if that was a question or a suggestion, if a question, its more just
looking for horses that tick certain boxes and give a shortlist of horses to be studied further.
Struggled a bit puting a figure on the draw element, decided on half the field, first 3 places
if winner plus 1 or 2 places are in the lower half then that would be at least 66% low draw, or
vice versa, if that makes sense, have some of it mapped out at the moment, now for the doing.
hope to finish by the end of the end of the month.

Hi Brian don't know if you was referring to my mention of the draw. Certain tracks like Chester .low Beverley high .Carlisle low Pontefract low .for example those are the place to be.a few years back they changed from low to high or high to low if you know what I mean.take Ascot when it's soft going low tends to fair better. Over certain distances. At York low is another over the longer distances depending on the size of the field.obviously it's not bombproof but it can be a useful guide and worth bearing in mind. Now I didn't mention stables in form but if they are on the cold list I swerve them . Top trainers and top jocks always will win you money.but even they have quiet periods.

1 course winner - 3
2 distance winner - 4
3 class winner - 6
4 trainer stats - 9
5 jockey stats - 8
6 trainer/jockey (combi) stats - 5
7 tissue price - 0
8 form figures - 5

Another excellent thread, Brian, and it’s good to see different opinions and how people give more importance to different factors. I think it can vary for different type of races, and a combination of many of these factors can be useful. Good luck with your project, and if you need any help with looking up any past data, give me a shout.

It’s difficult to put numbers to these as I think they can vary from race to race, but will try.

Course winner - 6.5
Distance winner - 5.5
Class winner - 6.0
Going winner - 6.0
Trainer stats (at the track) - 6.5
Jockey stats (at the track) - 3.0
Tissue Price - 4.5
Form figures - 5.0 (?), form is more important when combined with other factors, but I understood this to mean just basic form figures as in where the horse finished in last few races without taking into consideration class and other factors of those races.

Good spot AKD with the going; on extreme going on the flat I would say this is a 9/10 for me.

Good thread. I tend to make a few quid on stealing a bit of value backing placed Group 1 flat horses dropping into Group 2 and coming up against improving Group 3 and top handicapper. I am happy to take around 6/4 to 2/1 if I perceive their true prices to be around 8/11 - evens. There aren't that many in a season, but they do exist.

not sure about the draw segment, see what you think.
A small segment below of the brighton stalls.

The 1st column is the distance in yards(1 mile maximum)
2nd column number of runners
3rd column the draw
4th column result
i've halved the number of runners, anything finishing in the 1st 3 above that number is classed as
high, below it classed as low.
The full count was high 204= 64% , low= 114 36%,
A draw bias from a while back reads:-BRIGHTON: In sprint races low numbers tend to have an advantage.
I think i will stick with this method for the draw segment, 5 tracks down ??? to go.

1315,8,2,1,low numbers
1315,8,4,2,high numbers
1315,8,3,3,low numbers
1160,7,5,2,high numbers
1160,7,6,1,high numbers
1160,7,2,3,low numbers
1530,7,6,3,high numbers
1530,7,5,2,high numbers
1530,7,2,1,low numbers
1530,9,1,2,low numbers
1530,9,3,1,low numbers
1530,9,5,3,high numbers
1751,8,6,3,high numbers
1751,8,5,1,high numbers
1751,8,2,2,low numbers
1160,7,1,2,low numbers
1160,7,5,3,high numbers
1160,7,4,1,high numbers
1160,8,4,3,high numbers
1160,8,5,1,high numbers
1160,8,3,2,low numbers