BEST of the BETS

3:25
RESULT Book Our On-Site Hotel Scottish Trophy Handicap (Class 3)
1st 1. Platinumcard 5/1
2nd 5. Howzer Black 33/1
3rd 6. Whereʼs Jeff 15/2

:wink:

Excellent Write up ivan .thankx

nice write up, doing things along the same lines, i found this very interesting.

I'm pleased that my post proved of interest, although it doesn't always work out as horses are flesh and blood not machines as they are always telling us. An American racing guru, possibly Beyer, was of the opinion that it is impossible to rate a horse in a single figure and I agree, but the higher figures often give an indication where the winner will emerge from. I rated the York 4.10 this morning although I prefer races with not more than about 12 runners keeping the overround deduction reasonable.

York 4.10 with 17 runners so those out to 16/1 are in the true mathematical odds range. In the early market at 10.30 these were no's 2, 3, 6, 7, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 at that time indicating an open contest.
My top 4 ratings came out as:

2. Elysian Flame 84 = 8/1 fair odds (10/1 mkt)
6. Future Investment 86 = 8/1 (12/1)
12. Scaramanga 66 = 10/1 (4/1)
15. Arcadian Sunrise 74 = 9/1 (7/2)

Comment: I am not playing in the race. No 13. Prince Imperial 66 = 10/1 (20/1 mkt not expected).

Quality write ups are appreciated. :up:

York (going forecast G) RP Spotlight selects Improvised (1 pundit agrees 12 oppose)
5.20 Market expected (with true mathematical odds range 11/1) 09.30 no's 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 13 currrently indicating an open contest but I would expect the win to emerge from these on form.

1. 50 = 13/1 (11/1 mkt)
2. 0 + ? (18/1)
3. 72 = 17/2 (7/1)
4. 22 = 28/1 (66/1)
5. 104 = 11/2 (8/1) Rising Star 1 tip
6. 0 = ? (20/1)
8. 104 = 11/2 (4/1) Spirit Of Bermuda 2 tips
9. 87 = 7/1 (4/1)
10. 84 = 7/1 (10/1)
12. 12 = 60/1 (20/1)
13. 90 = 7/1 (4/1) Improvised 2 tips
14. 58 = 11/1 (11/1)

Comment: (I will try to comment later as I am down for gardening now :sad: ). However, in comparison with my top three form ratings this is the ATR form verdict:

SPIRIT OF BERMUDA had Rising Star (second) and Star Of Emaraaty (third) behind when successful in a Newmarket handicap over this trip and a 3lb rise for that success might not be enough to stop her. Sweet Enough won her maiden in good style at Newmarket and was not hard pressed to defy a mark of 80 on her handicap bow at Yarmouth, but is 7lb higher in this.

Top Tip: SPIRIT OF BERMUDA (8)
Watch out for: SWEET ENOUGH (9)

Top write up again thankx

@calvert, you are welcome, after all this is still a work in progress after 70 years trying (now i am y years older than Joe Biden and look at the state he is in!).

York (going forecast GF) True math odds for race 11/1.
4.40 Market expected 09.30 no's 5, 9, 10, 11 currently indicating a win restricted to these. In my experience where less than half the field are in the true math odds for a race the winner will come from the shorter odds.

1. 59 = 9/1MY fair odds (11/1 MKT)
2. 0 = ? (40/1)
3. 21 = 28/1 (18/1)
4. 0 = ? (22/1)
5*. 87 = 6/1 (7/2) Achelois 1 tip
6. 34 = 16/1 (22/1)
7. 30 = 20/1 (33/1)
8. 66 = 8/1 (16/1)
9*. 108 = 9/2 (3/1) Sea La Rosa 7 tips
10*. 84 = 6/1 (9/2) Jim C 1 tip
11. 60 = 9/1 (6/1) Umneyaat 3 tips
12. 53 = 11/1 = 20/1

Comment: I was going to include the VDW (subject to other considerations) but have to go gardening again :sad: ). Hwever, htis is the ATR for verdict in comparison:

Achelois has been in a rich vein of form this season after successes at Ascot and Goodwood and now bids for the hat-trick. However, a chance is taken on SEA LA ROSA, who bounced back to form in a three-runner contest at Redcar and could have more to offer at this trip. Golden Melody warrants respect after her latest success at Beverley but now has to shoulder a 6lb penalty. Declared Interest and Umneyaat also have strong claims in a competitive affair.

Top Tip: SEA LA ROSA (9)
Watch out for: ACHELOIS (5)

Re. York 16.40 - a couple of errors + extra info.

RP Spotlight selection is Umneyat (2 pundits agree 11 oppose)
10* JimC is Jewel In The Crown.
I am 7 years older than Joe Biden (where am I :yikes: ?)

It all Helps toward my placepot picks .I permed 54 x 10p yesterday got £31 ok for a fiver.

VDW aka G Hall from my opinion in 2016.
If you are at a loose end like myself and fancy a read and not put off by the VDW tag, read on:-
The whole VDW saga was 'manipulated' by several parties with vested interests, although that does not imply that the core methodology was poor.
First, C. Van der Wheil was an alias of G. Hall who wrote in praise of the VDW, SCHB correspondence and this was proved beyond reasonable doubt by Dr Alan Bacon, whom I am aquainted with. I have no idea why this misconception was done. It was G Hall that endorsed the ‘key', which caused the initial furore, and I was carried along myself by the impetus.
SCHB and Raceform were keen to promote an idea that was boosting circulation.
Tony Peach, Sports Forum editor and journalist, used the popularity to publish the VDW booklets through Browsers, where he was a sleeping partner. The downside for Tony was that he was not good on the gambling side and often put the wrong interpretation on VDW data, particularly in 'specials' such as Raceform VDW Update booklet. Tony is a friend of mine and having dinner with him one evening, hoping for inside information, I inquired about the most important factor for him in betting, and he replied 'luck', this from a man who worked alongside Ken Hussey, Split Second, also Form Plus, Methodmaker and many others. He also told me that at a certain point the VDW letters became articles paid for at £50 each, where the content to be discussed was proposed by Tony, possibly starting from SCHB, March 13, 1980, 'Flying Dutchman Believes in Consistency'.
What has this got to do with your queries?
In my opinion something that began simply evolved over quite some time into a more complex approach. As evidence I would cite the letter I have been quoting from date 25 Aug 1979, some 16 months along the timeline where to date there is no mention of class/ability ratings or employing commercial hcap/form ratings as part of the 'methodology'. Although at the start of that letter VDW wrote,"although ratings have a value they are not the 'be-all-and-end-all' but should be treated as a guide."
As indicated VDW wrote about rating and ratings and with rating he meant form assessment.

"Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction with the previous method I gave is as follows. The combination of the two usually isolates the probables.

Stage 1. - From the last two placings of each horse mark all those with form figures 1 to 4.
Stage 2. - Select in days the the five most recent runs (include any joint equal).
Stage 3. - Select from above the three most consistent by adding together the last three placings of the respective horses (that is the last three placings where the horse finished)."

(In the example given - Newmarket Aug 4, Cobnut Selling Handicap 3yo, 16 runners - two set of handicap ratings were also included just to illustrate the impact that ratings may have on prices and I included this info in my version of this second 'platform' at the time).
"In March 1981 I suggested,' To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stages of each race."

(and now today this is where we came in when I suggested in my original post on the thread where I opined most commercial form ratings are adjusted OR where the great majority of the field will come out as odds of one less than the true mathematical odds for the race and therefore not a lot of use for punting generally. Also I don’t employ VDW procedures as they don’t give a numerical form rating, which I require to convert to fair odds for a race. However, making a modification to produce rating figures you can go on “ to confirm what the figures say” with odds to compare with the market).

Sandown 5.45 my amended 'second elementary procedure'.

RP Spotlight selects Yagood (12 pundits oppose)
Market expected 16.15 no's 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13 indicating an open contest.

3. Ravens Ark 90 = 5/1 (4/1 mkt) 6 tips. LTO 17, -5lbs, =class, Bri. 1/8 +shd. Kept on strongly led final strides.
9. Praiano 93 = 9/2 (9/4) 4 tips. LTO 14,-5lbs, = class, Lei. 1/6 +3/4L. stayed on led finish ridden out.
13. Yagood 102 = 4/1 (7/1) 1 tip. LTO 12, -14lbs, +1 grade? Not. 2/11 -1/2L. Soon ridden, headway, kept on well nearest finish.

Comment: I prefer no's 3 and 9 with Yagood being up in class.

Sandown 5.45 ATR form verdict in comparison:

OCEANLINE had been steadily progressive before possibly finding the ground too testing at Haydock and with the return to a quicker surface and drop in grade set to aid his cause, he may be capable of bouncing back to form in a competitive staying contest. Praiano stepped up when getting off the mark on his handicap debut at Leicester earlier this month and is feared, while Yagood has been in excellent form recently and also looks a threat.

Top Tip: OCEANLINE (12)
Watch out for: PRAIANO (9)

well done m8 .. :clap:

Usual Monday fare on the UK mainland so generally low-grade racing all round. I have opted for the joint top feature race at Ripon, currently 11 runners so 10/1 is the cut off price for market expected.

Ripon (goin forecast G with some GS) RP Spotlight selects Safran (1 pundit agrees 12 oppose)
6.55 Market expected 10.15 no's 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 indicating an open contest. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, possible contender 5/1, not expected longer than 10/1.

1. 40 = 12/1 MY fair odds (8/1 mkt)
2. 48 = 10/1 (11/2) (Saffran 2 tips (D) D OM'Eara my rting 7/D Tudhope)
3. 18 = 28/1 (14/1)
4. 73 = 6/1 (5/1) Mars Landing 6 tips (DBF). LTO 15, +8lbs, dropped 1 grade*, wdr. 2/2 -1L stumbled ridden no extra held, Stoute my rating 18/R Kingscote.
5. 57 = 8/1 (6/1)
6. 88 = 5/1 (5/1) Challet 1 tip (C&DD2BF). LTO 10, -4lbs, = class, Thi. 3/9 -1 1/2L headway ran on well not reach leaders.
7. 93 = 92 (6/1) Six Strings 3 tips (DBF). LTO 19, +5lbs, =class, Pon. 3/8 - 3 1/4L went 2nd no extra finish.
8. 56 = 8/1 (9/1
9. 15 = 33/1 (20/1)
10. 12 = 40/1 (66/1)
11. 12 +40 1 (12/1)

Comment: Three beaten favs to consider as far as my ratings are concerned and Mars Landing probably the best of them. 1 point each the three just for interest.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
SAFRAN is the type of horse that David O'Meara has excelled with in the past and after threatening the winner's enclosure on recent starts at York and Thirsk, the son of Dabarism could be ready to do damage here. Beaten at shorts odds on his last two outings, Mars Landing isn't exactly one to rely on but he should be in the reckoning once more. Six Strings deserves a chance of luck having filled the runner-up spot on four of his last five runs, while the unexposed Malhoob is also of interest returned to turf.

Top Tip: SAFRAN (2)
Watch out for: MARS LANDING (4)