BEST of the BETS

2 from 3. Fairyland and Lah Ti Dar both won.

The Trackman:

Friday

Today's action is somewhat subdued compared to Saturday but one horse I want to be with is Ballykan in the 4.10 at Fakenham. Rumours are rife about his current well being and he has had a few entries of late but its worth noting connections take up today's option. He can get the weekend off to a flyer at odds of around 7/4.

There is a decent Group 3 sprint at Dundalk tonight and I am going to be playing All The King's Men each way at around 8/1. His stablemate Lost Treasure is the likely favourite but he looks a little less than reliable at the business end. The selection is thriving on his racing and was an impressive winner last time at Navan. Expect him to be prominent most of the way.

At Newcastle I want to be with Cliff in the 7.15. He always seems to go well at this track and the step up to 7f's looks ideal. He was an eye catching fourth at this track a few weeks back where he was clear of the rest. He has a good apprentice on board claiming a valuable 7lb which leaves him on a very workable mark. Expect him to be played late and fast.

Saturday

First up on Saturday will be the consistent The Tin Man in the 2.00 at Ascot where the conditions are likely to suit him a lot more than most. He returned to winning ways at Haydock under similar conditions battling on in good fashion to land the spoils. He won this race two years ago so the track holds no fears. With the excellent Oisin Murphy doing the steering he looks a strong bet.

In the 2.40 I am going to take an each way punt on the Roger Varian trained filly Pilaster. Connections are rumoured to be baffled by the ride given at Doncaster last time where she was given far too much to do by Atzeni. They have jocked up David Egan who won on her at Goodwood during the summer and that could be good move as he knows her well. She has never raced on soft ground but has stamina in abundance which could be the key here. At odds of 12/1 she is the value bet against the warm favourite.

In the 3.15 I am taking on Roaring Lion with two selections who I can't split at the moment. Laurens is up against the boys for the first time and is set to receive weight from most of the main contenders. She looked in fine fettle at Newmarket last time winning in good style and with conditions likely to suit she has a serious chance. I will be having a saver on David O'Meara's Lord Glitters who will love the underfoot conditions and is also well suited to this track. He wasn't suited how the race went in Canada last time and is far better judged on his effort at York beating a decent sort despite hating the ground.

Capri has been lightly campaigned this year for one reason or another but put up a solid effort to be fifth to Enable in this year's Arc and he is fancied to land the 3.50 at decent odds. He looked a serious staying prospect when winning the Leger in 2017 where he had some serious opponents behind him. This race is the obvious target following on from the Arc and where stamina could play vital role here he could be picking up the pieces at the end.

Catterick stages a very decent card in its own right but most of its races look very tricky. One horse I will be betting is Ice Gala in the 2.25. William Haggas has a very decent strike rate with runners at this track and his representative here has strong claims where on the form book she will be very difficult to beat.

Sunday

The racing on Sunday makes very little appeal but if Elysees is declared at Kempton in the opener he is worth an interest. He was tipped up here last week at Chepstow but was undone by the soft going. He jumped well in the main and only petered out on the uphill climb. Expect that run to sharpen him up and this flat galloping track will also suit.

Weekend Nap

The closing Balmoral handicap at Ascot on Saturday looks a tricky affair but I am playing safe and rowing in with Raising Sands who did us a big favour at this track a few weeks back. The key to this horse is the ground as he absolutely relishes it. He won a shade cosy last time and is well up to defying a six pound penalty.

The Trackman

Three picks and just one second at 7/4 from Trackman yesterday.

Free info tip from Alex Gorrie today:

4.30 Ascot No Raising Sand - £5 E/W Bet (11/2 Sky Bet 6 places)
Loves it at Ascot and on perfect ground, a very big run is expected.

Interesting trainer stats preview for the rest of the week, from Race Advisor. You would have got 4 or 5 winners from their Monday preview, which included a 13/2 shot from Gary Moore.

Tuesday 20th November
Another average day with two jumps cards at Southwell and Fakenham, while Lingfield provide AW racing fans with their fix.

Southwell – the Tom George stable are also worth noting here, with a 30% overall record (21-71) in recent seasons, plus also note any Peter Bowen-trained chasers, as they boast an impressive 44% record.

Fakenham – the popular Olly Murphy yard often do well with their runners here (30%), so are always worth noting – especially over fences, as this increases to 38%. With 25% strike rates, the Oliver Sherwood and Dan Skelton are other stables to note.

Lingfield – in recent years the Archie Watson team have built-up a decent 24% record at the track, and that increases to 35% with their 2 year-olds. Seamus Durack is another yard to have on your radar, with an overall 23% record at the Surrey venue.


Wednesday 21st November
A bit more going on Wednesday, with jumping cards at Warwick, Hexham and Chepstow, plus two AW fixtures from Kempton and Wolverhampton.

Warwick – the champion trainer, Nicky Henderson, is always worth following here with a 30% strike-rate, and that increases to a stonking 57% over fences (4 from 7). Gary Moore (30%), Paul Nicholls (24%), and Dan Skelton (23%) are other yards to keep on-side.

Hexham – Keith Dalgleish (29%), Graeme McPherson (27%), Mark Walford (20%) & James Ewart (20%) are yards to note, but with only 3 winners from 63 (5%), the Rose Dobbin team don’t have the best of records here.

Chepstow – some big yards are likely to be on show at the Welsh track, but pay special attention to any Paul Nicholls (24%) and Tom George (24%) runners, especially if the pair have any runners in NH Flat races, as this record then increases to 46% (Nicholls) and 50% (George).


Thursday 22nd November
Another busy day with jumping cards at Market Rasen and Wincanton, plus AW action from Newcastle and Wolverhampton.

Market Rasen – trainer Dan Skelton always does well with runners here (27%), plus look for any Nigel Twiston-Davies hurdlers at the track, as they boast an impressive 30% strike-rate. Stuart Edmund's runners over fences are 2 from 4 (50%) as well, while with only 2 winners from 46, be wary of Ben Case-trained runners.

Wincanton – Paul Nicholls rarely leaves empty-handed here. He has a cracking 33% overall record in recent years, and that increases to 38% with just his hurdlers. Alan King (20%), and Emma Lavelle (20%), are other yards to note, while the up-and-coming Jack Barber team are already 2 from 7 here.

Newcastle – the powerful John Gosden (38%), William Haggas (37%), and Charlie Appleby (42%) yards are not afraid to send runners up north to this track, and with cracking strike-rates the entries from all three should be respected.


Friday 23rd November
A top jumping card at Ascot this Friday for the first of their two-day meeting. Ffos Las and Catterick also race over the sticks, and Kempton provide the AW action.

Ascot – a 25% record with his chasers at the track, the powerful Nicky Henderson team should be followed. The Robert Walford (2 from 4), and Oliver Sherwood (3 from 9) camps, also do well with their chasers at the Berkshire venue. Harry Fry is another yard to look for as they boast a decent 26% overall record here, but pay special attention to their hurdlers (37%). Finally, it’s not been a lucky track for Dan Skelton so far, just 3 from 50!

Ffos Las – trainers Ben Pauling (27%), Warren Greatrex (23%) and Philip Hobbs (21%) should be given a second glance here, note that Pauling is also 2 from 3 (67%) with his chasers here. Also note any Rebecca Curtis-trained runners (25%), and especially their chasers, as they are 37% over fences at this track.

Catterick – if Jamie Snowden has any runners here this week then take note. He’s got a decent 40% record, and is actually 2-from-2 with his chasers at the course.


Saturday 24th November
The LIVE ITV racing comes from Ascot and Haydock this Saturday, with two cracking jumps cards to take in. At Ascot, the Coral Hurdle and the Christy 1965 Chase are the main events, while at Haydock the Betfair Chase is their feature contest.

The supporting cards on the day are Huntingdon, Lingfield and Wolverhampton.

Back to Haydock and the Betfair Chase...
At this stage of the week we could be in for a race to savour. Gold Cup winner, Native River, and the runner-up Might Bite are currently entered, while King George hero, Thistlecrack, and also last year’s Betfair Chase winner, Bristol de Mai, could head for the race. Bristol De Mai routed a good field in the race 12 months ago, and if the ground turns up soft, he would be a big player. He looks to emulate the likes of Cue Card and Kauto Star by winning this race more than once. His form figures at Haydock read 1-1-1 so he’s yet to taste defeat at the Lancashire venue, so even if he might be taking on the Gold Cup first and second, he seems to be a better horse at Haydock and looks set to run a big race.


Recent Betfair Chase Winners

2017 – BRISTOL DE MAI (11/10 fav)
2016 – CUE CARD (15/8 fav)
2015 – CUE CARD (7/4)
2014 - SILVINIACO CONTI (10/3)
2013 – CUE CARD (9/1)
2012 – SILVINIACO CONTI (7/4)
2011 – KAUTO STAR (6/1)
2010 – IMPERIAL COMMANDER (10/11 fav)
2009 – KAUTO STAR (4/6 fav)
2008 – SNOOPY LOOPY (33/1)
2007 – KAUTO STAR (4/5 fav)
2006 – KAUTO STAR (11/10 fav)
2005 – KINGSCLIFF (8/1)


Key Betfair Chase Betting Trends

13 Previous runnings
11/13 - Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
11/13 - Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 - Officially rating of 168 or higher
10/13 – Won by and Irish (3) or French (7) bred horse
10/13 - Placed in the top three in their last race
10/13 - Won a Grade One chase previously
9/13 - Raced at Haydock previously
9/13 – Favourites placed
8/13 – Aged 8 or older
7/13 - Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
7/13 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or less
6/13 – Won by a previous winner of the race
6/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Won their latest race
3/13 - Raced at Aintree last time out

The average winning price in the last 11 runnings is 11/2. The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014. Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012.

Olly Murphy and Dan Skelton the two trainers flagged up for Fakenham today. Murphy bags the first at 3/1.

This speed ratings service is very good IMO. Have been following them (not backing all the time) for about a year. The method I used was to cover the bottom 5 in the main ratings for each race (not the LTO) in reverse f/c and Tricast. Try paper trading it for a week or two. I got some huge returns.

The UK ratings for each day are free. You can download the ones for Southwell here, off the home page:

https://horseforcoursesspeedratings.com/speed-ratings

Todays trainer views


12.30 NAP - Yeavering Belle We don't like putting up short-priced favourites for nap selections but we are hardly spoilt for choice today. Yeavering Belle's bumper form was solid and she gets a confident vote. Whether you want to bet odds-on is a diffferent matter!

15.00 Salto Chisco Salto Chisco is one of the favourites in the yard. Before his last run we hoped he could get back into the winner's circle after a string of good placed efforts but he ran a rare disappointing race. Hopefully he will be back to his normal reliable self and get into the money.

18.10 Russian Royale Russian Royale was second in this race last year and everything will be to her advantage as long as we do not too much rain. That would be a concern. She is fighting fit and will take all the beating.

20.15 Barton Rose You cannot fault Barton Rose for consistency but it's a while since she won a race. Finally the handicapper has given her a slight ease in her rating and this could be the day she returns to the winner's enclosure.

20.55 Valgor Du Ronceray has proved to be a big disappointment since coming over from Ireland but he will cope with the rain-softened ground. Emma’s claim is a free gift, so despite the odds this has to be a great chance for him! 20/1

I should clarify how I worked those speed ratings: Look at the top 6, eliminate the top-rated, cover the next 5 named horses for reverse SF and Tricast.

What perm would you use to perm the 5 horses for reverse sf and tricasts bodger ? Would presumably be for very small stakes due to amount of permutations. Would be interesting to try it out.

Combination f/c for 5 picks is 20 bets. Combo Tricast 60 bets. So I'd do the first in 10p units (£2), the second in 5p units (£3). Total £5 per race.

Cheers Bodge.