BEST of the BETS

Time to revisit this very interesting post from Owenjohn from 3 months ago. I got reminded of this post thanks to Trainerlayer’s selection of Archimedes today. Now, David Griffiths has not had a winner since this post was made, but it should not be that surprising as he has never had many winners in months of October through to December and his strike rate goes up dramatically from January. In fact, today he equalled his previous longest losing run of 57 that ended on 10th January 2017. His 3 runners today didn’t actually run that badly (finishing 4th, 5th & 6th) considering they were all big prices, which could be another sign that he is about to come back to form. I wanted to see how his runners performed after his last longest losing run ended, and looked at his next 57 runners from 10th Jan 2017. These produced 10 winners with LSP of +11 at SP, if that doesn’t sound that impressive then you can exclude 16 runners that were having their first run of season as we know he rarely gets winners first time, and none of those 16 won. That leaves us with 10 winners from 41 with LSP of 27, and most of those wins came from horses that had finished in 2nd to 6th place on their previous run. So to summarise, I think it may be worth considering his runners for next few months, including the 3 that ran well today to finish just out of places.

Lol that was almost perfect timing. Only the 2nd runner from Griffiths since my reply and it ends his long losing run. Hopefully, more winners to come from him next few weeks.

Great Spot AKD

Thanks Dragon2, I noticed it thanks to Owenjohn’s original post and then got reminded of it because TrainerLayer had picked this horse last week. So I will call this teamwork, we are all here to try and help each other even though things don’t always go to plan. I would love to see more of these kind of threads than people having a go at each other, which unfortunately tends to happen at times.

Well said AKD

Griffiths has two more runners at Southwell tomorrow, one of them Ornate (1:20), I backed this one last time and it was beaten just half a length, takes a slight drop in class tomorrow so should go close again. Other one Pearl Acclaim (3:00) is certainly well handicapped and has a good record here, though most of his wins have come over 5f, his only 6f win came at Ripon.

They are 2 decent runners for David Griffiths and would imagine they will go close. His form though is not brilliant, winning at Newcastle with Archimides last night and before that about 58 runners going back to 9 Oct at Brighton with Fieldsman. He will probably go and do the double tomorrow. Good luck with them AKD

Thanks, Amadeus. That is the reason I am following him as I explained in my reply at top of this page.

That comes from not reading all the comments, sorry for that AKD. Just looked up his stats and it shows in Quarter 1 of 2018 he had 55 runners and 10 winners

No problem, Amadeus. Yes, this is the month he starts having winners, always seems to have poor October to December, and it also means his horses that have been running over last 3 months should be well handicapped now.

Nice one AKD :up: Good Luck today

Good studying AKD

Ornate wins well done

That is the kind of analysis and skill that makes this Board very special

well done ty for posting great start. :starstruck:

Brilliant AKD :clap: :clap: :clap:

Well done AKD

Top analysis AKD !

Thanks AKD nice read and spot on once again cheers.

Great reading of trainer & race, roll on number 2 for the double