BEST of the BETS

Thanks.

Bet 9

12:47 Bangor - 2m 1 1/2f Handicap Chase (4, soft)

Twotwothree won a novice handicap over c&d last season but that was from a 19 lbs lower mark than today and it was on first run of season, so not sure how much 2nd time improvement can be expected this time, so I am going against him. Rizzardo took advantage of dropping mark to win nicely last time, he is back up 5 lbs but could still run well as he had run ok in higher class last season. He is dropping back in trip but I don’t think it’s a problem. Etilla De Sivola is the likely pacesetter in this, hopefully he will set a strong enough pace so this shorter trip won’t inconvenience likes of Rizzardo and Caboy, who I see as the main danger as he didn’t run badly over 2 and half here in a slightly stronger race last time. Both Nigel Twiston-Davies and Lucinda Russell (trainers of Rizzardo and Caboy respectively) are 1 from 1 in this race, NTD won with Colin’s Brother (11/10) in 2016, and Russell won in 2018 with Vengeur De Guye (4/1).

Bets
Rizzardo, 0.8 pt win @ 15/8
Caboy, 0.2 pt win @ 13/2

Good luck.

Sorry. Very poor selections today, beaten a long way out. I completely ignored the winner’s chance, form wasn’t bad but I didn’t think he will be ready first time as trainer was something like 1 from 70 after similar break.

Staked = 9
Returns = 8.34
P/L = -0.66

Bet 10

2:50 Carlisle - 3m 1/2f Handicap Chase (3, soft)

Course form is an important factor here, and as 4 of the 7 runners are previous course winners I think the winner will come from these. Out of these Bafana Blue is out of form, including when only 6th over c&d last month, though he has dropped to just 1 lb above his last winning mark now. But he was also well behind Tanarpino last time, so looks unlikely. Tanarpino won well here on seasonal return but his handicap mark has gone back up in 130s and he might find it tough against a couple of improvers especially with his record of 1 from 21 (placed 7 times) in class 3.

Rath An Iuir and Up Helly Aa King both did well on their returns last time. Rath An Iuir win came here, and he likely has more improvement of the two as it was his chasing debut, but UHAK also can not be ignored as he is 2 from 2 here. The latter is a big drifter in betting this morning, but there is nothing alarming about that as he is one of those horses that run well despite drifting in betting - looking at betting for his last 5 races, won (drifted from 7/2 to 13/2), 3rd (10/3 to 6/1), 2nd (15/2 to 14/1), won (9/4 to 7/2), and last time won after drifting from 7/2 to 10/1.

I prefer Rath An Iuir because he is so lightly raced, but had a saver on Up Helly Aa King.

Bets
Rath An Iuir, 0.8 pt win @ 13/8
Up Helly Aa King, 0.2 pt win @ 15/2

Good luck.

We where in agreement this time ,maybe we should go MAX when we land on the same selection lol. Well done.

Thanks, well done you too.

Short price, but made up for yesterday.

Staked = 10
Returns = 10.44
P/L = +0.44

Last 10 results (main bets only) - 2212P242P1

Wonder if u should factor a place bet into your betting 7 outta 10 placed surely u can add to your pot with strike rate like that??

If u think im interfering ie advice AKD then say so as Rodeo said that i was interfering on peoples threads.I'm just following your journey AKD and trying to suggest how to increase profits if you feel as though im annoying you then say so. I take an interest in your posts as I know you are prepared to put effort in to be successful and i like to see them type of people do well.

Hi DFM, no problem for me about advice on my thread. I am open to everyone’s opinion but always make my own mind up in the end. Regarding betting place only, then yes with above 10 bets I would have made profit of 3.28 pts at Betfair SP, but it’s only a small sample and I am hoping I will get more winners than 2nds in future.

Bet 11

3:10 Ayr - 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle (4, heavy)

Calivigny has a good record here with 4 wins, and won easily over fences last time, but he has never won from a mark this high, at age of 11 and a couple of unexposed rivals he will do well to defy this mark so not for me. Leostar also won very easily (14 lengths eased down) last time, his first win, has been raised 14 lbs for that and this is a much better race.

One that interests me most is, You Name Him, Tom Lacey’s runners first time in a handicap are always worth noting. He has 11 wins from 54 runners (LSP +19) when running them in a handicap hurdle for first time, with those that had placed on previous start and were stepping up in distance by 3 furlongs or more on handicap debut the record is 11721 (7th was a big price) for LSP of +16.50. Judging by pedigree, this one looks sure to be suited by step up in trip. Heavy going is one question as I generally don’t like backing young horses on heavy going, but Proclamation’s progeny has a good record on it - 8 wins (with 6 different horses) from 55 on heavy in NH races, 7 from 24 (+16 LSP) if you only include those priced under 10/1.

Although he has been beaten by 9 lengths or more in all his races so far, form of those races is pretty good. Beaten 20 lengths in 5th at Southwell, but the first 3 between them have since then won 7 races from 13 and are rated 131, 127 & 140. 2nd race he was 10 lengths behind the winner, who has since then won a couple more and finished 2nd in Grade 2 at Chepstow and is rated 141. No winners from his last race yet, but it probably wasn’t a bad race either as there were 125 and 122 rated horses that were well beaten and the winner went close in class 2 last time. So there is enough form to suggest he can be competitive from opening mark of 114.

One negative is that despite this being a long way to travel, Lacey’s record at Ayr is not great - he sent 4 runners here at last meeting couple of weeks ago but could finish no better than 4th with any of them. But this time the jockey is Jonathan Burke, who has only been to Ayr couple of times before (for the Scots National meeting), they have a few runners today so we might get a clue from how the first couple run.

Doyen Breed is another unexposed runner, he finished 2nd on handicap debut last time. That looked a weak race though, so he needs to improve but there is every chance that he could improve as it was first run for trainer and first after a break last time.

Bets
You Name Him, 0.6 pt win @ 5/1, 0.4 pt to finish in 1st two @ 7/4

Good luck.

Got that race completely wrong, the one I didn’t think could win, the 11 year old won. My one was travelling well enough but did not pick up at all and well beaten 4th in end.

Staked = 11
Returns = 10.44
P/L = -0.56

Last 10 results (main bets only) - 212P242P14

100 per cent ur bottle has gone lol all the same wiv u again big mouth no action. Now leave AKD thread alone you have spoilt everything on this board go on your own board and leave this one alone... even donb has outted u bye bye

BRING IT ON MATE, JUST 'COME OUT' and not for the 1st time lol, and you will get your wish.....you know I getting closer anyway......BOOM, SLEEP WELL MY LITTLE SADDO LMFAO

Ask mrs piggy if u are allowed to bet mr limited fund man pmsl GOTCHA SEE OTHER THREAD WORK IS DONE AND A BIG BOOOOM TO ME!!

Nah....didnt think so!!!

MY TIME ON HERE IS DONE AND COMPLETE!

NICE TO END ON ANOTHER CLASSIC THREAD.......BRILLIANT FINISH DAZZLER!!

OXYGEN GONE.....LETS SEE HOW YOU GO NOW AND HOW MANY TIMES YOU STILL YES STILL HAVE TO MENTION ME!!!......LEGEND! LMFAO