• AKD
    492
    I am going to give this another try, having just one bet a day (hoping it goes better than last time). It’s just to bring back discipline to my betting, as last few days I lost discipline by having too many bets and chasing losses which never ends well. So back to one bet a day with a fresh bank of 50 points, betting 1 point a day, this will often be split between 2 or more selections in the race. Let’s see how long the bank lasts lol.

    Bet 1

    12:55 Ascot - 2 mile 3 1/2 furlongs Maiden Hurdle (3)

    Really good maiden hurdle with some good prospects. The Edgar Wallace has good bumper form and I respect his chance on hurdles debut, but his two main rivals have hurdling experience and both have course form. Danny Kirwan (in 2018) and Time Flies By (last year) both ran to similar level of form in the Kennel Gate (Grade 2 novice) here. Former has had problems since then, and I felt his recent return was a little disappointing. He can’t be ruled out if he returns to the form of 2018 but has a bit to prove at the moment. No such problems for Time Flies By, who should appreciate the drop in class after finishing 5th in Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January. Fitness is not going to be a problem with Henderson, so I feel on hurdling form he is the one to beat.

    Outside the top 3, Royal Pretender cannot be completely ruled out. The maiden in which he finished 4th (beaten 11 lengths) on hurdling debut looks a good one, winner’s (Star Gate) time was 1 second faster than the other division won by Grand Mogul (who was then made 2nd fav for Grade 2 at Cheltenham next time). GM beat a 117-rated horse by a similar distance to what the Royal Pretender was beaten, so if he can improve a bit tomorrow then he is not out of this. He might still need others to underperform, but it’s not impossible, so I have done a saver on him.

    Bets

    Time Flies By, 0.9 pt @ Evens
    Royal Pretender, 0.1 pt @ 18/1

    Good luck.
  • Don't follow me
    133
    I dont think you should be too concerned. You had a good multi up the other day if I remember correctly. Punting is about mindset when i was punting even if i was behind i would start the day convincing myself I was even. Dont let the mind games of punting affect what you want to do.
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks.

    2nd & 3rd. Not the start I was hoping for, but I thought Royal Pretender ran well.

    Staked = 1
    Returns = 0
    P/L = -1

    Bet 2

    12:10 Haydock - Newton Novices Hurdle (Listed), 1 mile 7 1/2 furlongs

    Competitive race as 4 of the remaining 6 runners are last time out winners. It’s probably unwise to go against Paul Nicholls the way his horses are running at the moment, but I have opposed Flic Ou Voyou in his bid for a 4-timer. Although he has been winning easily, it’s hard to know what he has beaten and I feel this is the first time he will be really tested and could also get taken on for the lead by Do Your Job. To me, Do Your Job’s last run at Ayr looks the strongest form on offer, although his main rival Curlew Hill failed to give his running, the runner up Cadzand who was beaten nearly 10 lengths has come out and won easily next time. In 3rd & 4th were bumper winners from Nicky Richards and Nicholls yards that were beaten 14 & 37 lengths respectively. Other two lto winners Severance and Llandinabo Lad also won easily on their hurdling debuts and could improve, but Llandinabo Lad’s race didn’t have much depth to it. Severance did better, but his win was on heavy and I am always cautious about winning margins on heavy going.

    At big prices, Frimeur De Lancray is interesting. Sue Smith’s only previous runner in this race was Midnight Shadow, who went very close to winning this in 2017 @ 4/1. Interestingly, FdL made his debut in same race that Midnight Shadow had won on his hurdling debut, FdL could finish only 5th (beaten 16 lengths) so probably not in same league but he should still be able to win some races. Fell at the last when a close 3rd on next start, first two were rated 145 & 138, so that was a good run. Trainer’s runners often need the run, that’s what stops me being confident about him today but he could still run better than his price (no prices available for extra place markets on Bet365 yet, could be worth checking if they are doing 4 places). Pulled out of novice hurdle at Catterick yesterday, reason given was the going.

    Bets
    Do Your Job, 0.8 pt win @ 15/8
    Frimeur De Lancray, 0.2 pt to finish in first 3 @ 9/2

    Good luck.
  • AKD
    492
    I thought we had this one, Do Your Job gets beaten after going 1.04 in running, he simply got outstayed by the winner in testing conditions.

    Staked = 2
    Returns = 0
    P/L = -2
  • Bet2win
    43
    AKD
    Can you email me mate.
    luckycorky at yahoo doe ie

    Thanks
  • AKD
    492
    Hi Bet2win, sent you email.
  • AKD
    492
    Bet 3

    3:30 Navan - Mares Irish National Hunt Flat Race (Listed), 2 miles (soft)

    9 of the 11 runnings of this have been won by first two in betting, and again the top three look the ones to concentrate on. Form lines through Phillapa Sue and Fame And Joy/Royal Kahala clearly favour Castra Vetera over the two unbeaten fillies, Castra Vetera had beaten Phillapa Sue by over 3 lengths while giving weight to her, who then finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Mare Quimby. Other form line is through Fame And Joy who was beaten 11 lengths by Party Central, and then was beaten by even bigger distance by Royal Kahala who herself had been beaten by Castra Vetera. Of course, both Mare Quimby and Party Central are open to improvement after just one run.

    The bumper that Castra Vetera won under a penalty at Naas is usually a strong one. In past it has been won by Shattered Love (winner of 2 Grade 1s) and Gypsy Island (Grade 3 winner), and Castra Vetera’s sister Mystic Theatre finished 2nd in that race in 2017 before going on to win at up to Listed level over hurdles. So I have no doubt about Castra Vetera’s form credentials, only question is if she is fully tuned up for this first run since March.

    Race trends also favour Castra Vetera. Mares (5yo+) have 8 wins in this race from 90 runners, and fillies (4yo) only 3 wins from 63 runners. Interestingly, in the years when the 4yos won there were no winning mares in the line up. Also, mares carrying double penalties, as Castra Vetera is doing, have a very good record with 5 wins from just 12 runners (+6.08 LSP). But again, none of them were returning from a break so it all comes down to fitness for me. It’s a risk, but I am prepared to take that risk as I feel if she is 100% then she is the one to beat. Between Mare Quimby and Party Central, I see the latter as a bigger danger unless they go really fast (which I don’t think will happen) which will then favour MQ who has a lot of stamina in her pedigree.

    Only two others that could be interesting are Lunar Display who returns to Flat after falling in a good hurdles race last time, and Angels Dawn who has some fair form in bumpers and looks strong in betting today.

    Bet
    Castra Vetera, 1 pt win @ 5/2

    Good luck.
  • JOEMUGG
    464
    Only thing that would worry me is When MR beat Phillipa sue
    Phillipa sue second race which probably means it stripped fitter so MH had to be better than CV to beat it a similar distance.
    Hard race any one of them could win it
    GL
  • AKD
    492
    Fair point, Joe. CV was giving 5 lbs (incl. jockey claim) to PS though, PS in turn was giving 4 lbs (age allowance) to MQ. I agree it’s a hard race, due to fitness question imo. I would have felt confident if CV had a run this season.
  • Don't follow me
    133
    Interesting AKD its a match up between u and me lol. I went for Party Central.
  • AKD
    492
    I hadn’t seen that, DFM, good luck with Party Central. I see it as the main danger, especially as Elliott has won this twice in last 4 years, and it’s strong in betting.
  • peregrine
    360
    Dfm it's a bumper ! Again you have got me confused. You don't back in bumpers but according to you you ain't betting full stop am I on the right page here . Anyway won't be long before the bookies open and the real master of making the bookies pay will be back :razz:
  • Don't follow me
    133
    I don't bet anymore Peregine so the master will not be back !! :razz:
  • peregrine
    360
    Ha ha I knew it was you but for the record I am the master :kiss:
  • Rodeo
    255
    Ok out of you 2 who is the Real Master Bater? :cool:
  • donb
    33
    reminds me of the cat lady out of the simpsons.
  • Rodeo
    255
    oi i was only 6 there.. lol :lol:
  • Don't follow me
    133
    Accordin to Owenjohn it is me Rodeo but me head hasn't fell off yet.
  • peregrine
    360
    Master Bater think I'll come on here as wind up Willie as they say if the cap fits :grin:
  • Don't follow me
    133
    Well done AKD, nice winner. :clap:
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