BEST of the BETS

I dont think you should be too concerned. You had a good multi up the other day if I remember correctly. Punting is about mindset when i was punting even if i was behind i would start the day convincing myself I was even. Dont let the mind games of punting affect what you want to do.

Thanks.

2nd & 3rd. Not the start I was hoping for, but I thought Royal Pretender ran well.

Staked = 1
Returns = 0
P/L = -1

Bet 2

12:10 Haydock - Newton Novices Hurdle (Listed), 1 mile 7 1/2 furlongs

Competitive race as 4 of the remaining 6 runners are last time out winners. It’s probably unwise to go against Paul Nicholls the way his horses are running at the moment, but I have opposed Flic Ou Voyou in his bid for a 4-timer. Although he has been winning easily, it’s hard to know what he has beaten and I feel this is the first time he will be really tested and could also get taken on for the lead by Do Your Job. To me, Do Your Job’s last run at Ayr looks the strongest form on offer, although his main rival Curlew Hill failed to give his running, the runner up Cadzand who was beaten nearly 10 lengths has come out and won easily next time. In 3rd & 4th were bumper winners from Nicky Richards and Nicholls yards that were beaten 14 & 37 lengths respectively. Other two lto winners Severance and Llandinabo Lad also won easily on their hurdling debuts and could improve, but Llandinabo Lad’s race didn’t have much depth to it. Severance did better, but his win was on heavy and I am always cautious about winning margins on heavy going.

At big prices, Frimeur De Lancray is interesting. Sue Smith’s only previous runner in this race was Midnight Shadow, who went very close to winning this in 2017 @ 4/1. Interestingly, FdL made his debut in same race that Midnight Shadow had won on his hurdling debut, FdL could finish only 5th (beaten 16 lengths) so probably not in same league but he should still be able to win some races. Fell at the last when a close 3rd on next start, first two were rated 145 & 138, so that was a good run. Trainer’s runners often need the run, that’s what stops me being confident about him today but he could still run better than his price (no prices available for extra place markets on Bet365 yet, could be worth checking if they are doing 4 places). Pulled out of novice hurdle at Catterick yesterday, reason given was the going.

Bets
Do Your Job, 0.8 pt win @ 15/8
Frimeur De Lancray, 0.2 pt to finish in first 3 @ 9/2

Good luck.

I thought we had this one, Do Your Job gets beaten after going 1.04 in running, he simply got outstayed by the winner in testing conditions.

Staked = 2
Returns = 0
P/L = -2

AKD
Can you email me mate.
luckycorky at yahoo doe ie

Thanks

dot ie

Hi Bet2win, sent you email.

Bet 3

3:30 Navan - Mares Irish National Hunt Flat Race (Listed), 2 miles (soft)

9 of the 11 runnings of this have been won by first two in betting, and again the top three look the ones to concentrate on. Form lines through Phillapa Sue and Fame And Joy/Royal Kahala clearly favour Castra Vetera over the two unbeaten fillies, Castra Vetera had beaten Phillapa Sue by over 3 lengths while giving weight to her, who then finished 2 1/2 lengths behind Mare Quimby. Other form line is through Fame And Joy who was beaten 11 lengths by Party Central, and then was beaten by even bigger distance by Royal Kahala who herself had been beaten by Castra Vetera. Of course, both Mare Quimby and Party Central are open to improvement after just one run.

The bumper that Castra Vetera won under a penalty at Naas is usually a strong one. In past it has been won by Shattered Love (winner of 2 Grade 1s) and Gypsy Island (Grade 3 winner), and Castra Vetera’s sister Mystic Theatre finished 2nd in that race in 2017 before going on to win at up to Listed level over hurdles. So I have no doubt about Castra Vetera’s form credentials, only question is if she is fully tuned up for this first run since March.

Race trends also favour Castra Vetera. Mares (5yo+) have 8 wins in this race from 90 runners, and fillies (4yo) only 3 wins from 63 runners. Interestingly, in the years when the 4yos won there were no winning mares in the line up. Also, mares carrying double penalties, as Castra Vetera is doing, have a very good record with 5 wins from just 12 runners (+6.08 LSP). But again, none of them were returning from a break so it all comes down to fitness for me. It’s a risk, but I am prepared to take that risk as I feel if she is 100% then she is the one to beat. Between Mare Quimby and Party Central, I see the latter as a bigger danger unless they go really fast (which I don’t think will happen) which will then favour MQ who has a lot of stamina in her pedigree.

Only two others that could be interesting are Lunar Display who returns to Flat after falling in a good hurdles race last time, and Angels Dawn who has some fair form in bumpers and looks strong in betting today.

Bet
Castra Vetera, 1 pt win @ 5/2

Good luck.

Only thing that would worry me is When MR beat Phillipa sue
Phillipa sue second race which probably means it stripped fitter so MH had to be better than CV to beat it a similar distance.
Hard race any one of them could win it
GL

Fair point, Joe. CV was giving 5 lbs (incl. jockey claim) to PS though, PS in turn was giving 4 lbs (age allowance) to MQ. I agree it’s a hard race, due to fitness question imo. I would have felt confident if CV had a run this season.

Interesting AKD its a match up between u and me lol. I went for Party Central.

I hadn’t seen that, DFM, good luck with Party Central. I see it as the main danger, especially as Elliott has won this twice in last 4 years, and it’s strong in betting.

Dfm it's a bumper ! Again you have got me confused. You don't back in bumpers but according to you you ain't betting full stop am I on the right page here . Anyway won't be long before the bookies open and the real master of making the bookies pay will be back :razz:

I don't bet anymore Peregine so the master will not be back !! :razz:

Ha ha I knew it was you but for the record I am the master :kiss:

Ok out of you 2 who is the Real Master Bater? :cool:

reminds me of the cat lady out of the simpsons.

oi i was only 6 there.. lol :lol:

Accordin to Owenjohn it is me Rodeo but me head hasn't fell off yet.

Master Bater think I'll come on here as wind up Willie as they say if the cap fits :grin:

Well done AKD, nice winner. :clap: