Please add one you think is best. Remembering there is no such thing as a cert :) If you've come up with the same as me or others, still post it, cos weight of picks may indicate how much of a good thing a shortie may be.
No reasoning necessary but I'll give a reason or two.
Carr. 2.0 Que Amore 4/7 (was 8/13 some minutes ago).
Is rated over 26 points clear of field by Flatstats.
Que Amore gives good start, won easy at 4/7, every post a winning one. Drew a couple of lengths clear 3F out, everything else was rowing from 2F out, pulled further clear then eased down for 1-2 lengths victory.
Rock On Baileys (5/4) in 3:30 Chelmsford for me, has won 3 times from 5 previous visits here, not over 7f though but has finished 2nd on only previous try at this distance. Her main opponent is running on all weather for first time. Chris Dwyer shows a 10% LSP from over 200 runners here, and his runners have a 43% Strike rate here when favourite (13 from 30, +9 LSP), this is his only runner today. De Sousa/Dwyer combination is 15/63 (+22 LSP) here.
Fancied two at short prices today, backed both but unfortunately didn’t post the first one which won (Almania). So the next one will probably lose lol.
5:35 Wolverhampton - Stringybark Creek (place only @ 13/8) is very consistent and has 50% place strike rate (8 from 16) on all weather. He has 2 wins and 2 places from 6 runs since joining David Loughnane. Has also placed 4 times from 6 previous visits here. Jockey Cameron Noble, who rides horse for first time, has a very good record for trainer (14% win & 40% place strike rate from 50 rides), place strike rate for combination goes up to 57% if you only include horses priced under 10/1 (17 wins or places from 30).