BEST of the BETS

2:20 Fakenham - price is shorter than I would like but hopefully can start the year with a winner. STONEBRIGG LEGEND usually runs well here, both her wins have come over this c&d, only disappointing run here was last May when only 6th (Benny’s Girl was 6 lengths ahead of her) but she did have a lot of bad luck in that race having been hampered and taken wide by the loose horse. Looks in good form having finished 2nd last twice (clear of the rest both times) in better races than this. Main rival Indian Native won a 4 runner race at Southwell last time, she could go well again but it was her first win in nearly 3 years so wouldn’t be certain to follow up. Others all look out of form, Benny’s Girl is potentially well handicapped though, and Westerner Ocean could be interesting, she is yet to go close in her 7 runs so far but interesting that she was backed from 25/1 into 9/1 last time before finishing 4th.

Not the most confident selection, but it’s a weak race and favourite looks the likeliest winner.

Selection - Stonebrigg Legend @ 11/8

Good luck.

Really gutted to have let that winner go. This should be a lesson in how not to let your past results affect your thinking, I backed an outsider yesterday but it ran so poorly that I didn’t want to risk another outsider today and tried to play safe even though I could see Benny’s Girl was well handicapped and had a chance and I was so close to backing it. I will keep kicking myself all day today.

LSP: +6.73 (win), -0.20 (place)

1:15 Lingfield - TASTE THE NECTAR has twice come out on top against Heer We Go Again, beating him by 11 lengths at Chelmsford in November when receiving 3 lbs, and then finishing 4 lengths ahead at Wolverhampton last month despite conceding 4 lbs. As both race off same rating today, I can’t see why the result should be any different, therefore a bit surprised to see HWGA shorter in betting. Selection has won 2 and finished a close 2nd out of her last 4 runs, only poor run in between was when upped in class and distance at Kempton, a course where she had run poorly before too. Gold Brocade is moving up in class and needs to improve a fair bit if she is to get her first win today. Seize The Time could be interesting if she takes to this surface on first try returning from a break, but main danger looks to be Irish Acclaim whose 2nd place last time looks pretty good, he should go close if building on that.

Selection - Taste The Nectar @ 5/1

Good luck.

Not a bad run, touched 1/3 in running, just failed to get up coming from well off the pace. Winner has improved, market was right about her chances.

LSP: +5.73 (win), +1.98 (place)

Good effort AKD

Thanks, Doubler.

1:20 Musselburgh - tricky handicap, it’s hard to be confident about anything in this, I managed to narrow it to a tentative shortlist of 3. Last year’s winner Wot A Shot is one of them, he is 1 lb lower than last year but his form coming into the race this year is poorer, and although officially the race has been downgraded to class 5 from class 4, formwise it looks a slightly better renewal than last year. So I wouldn’t be confident about his chances of a repeat success but at same time he can’t be ruled out of it. I would have been interested in Titus Bolt had he been an each way price as I think he will be thereabouts. Iain Jardine is among the best when it comes to improving horses he gets from other yards, but 2/1 price now is a bit too short for me in a race like this. My selection is ISTIMRAAR, who is not without question marks but is a big enough price for me to take a small chance. His trainer has only ever had 4 wins (from 133 runs, all 4 wins were around this time 2 years ago), and has only one placing from 22 here at Musselburgh. This one has been in good form over fences, placing on 2 of his last 3 starts including a close 2nd here. We have to see how he goes now reverting to hurdles, but he got his last hurdles win as recently as May last year when with Dan Skelton so hopefully he will be ok. That win came from a 2 lbs higher mark than today, Haasab was 15 lbs behind him that day and is only 1 lb better off today but is a much shorter price.

Separately, I am also having a little saver on a long shot Bermondsey Belle @ 80/1, pulled up on 3 of 4 hurdles runs but she is on a low enough mark. Shouldn’t be good enough based on that but she has had a wind operation and did have some ability on flat rated in 60s.

Selection - Istimraar @ 14/1

Good luck.

Ran ok enough considering the price, but finished only 4th or 5th.

LSP: +4.73 (win), +0.98 (place)

11:40 Lingfield - DREAMBOAT DAVE steps up to class 5 after finishing a close 4th (beaten under a length) in class 6 here on Monday. 6 of the 13 runners in that race had won or placed on their previous start so it probably wasn’t the worst class 6 handicap, and this is not much of a step up as only a few in this have a realistic chance. Selection has won only once from 15 starts but has placed another 6 times so is pretty consistent, interestingly the win in October came the only other time he has raced within 10 days of his last run. He is one of only 4 distance winners in the race and that will hopefully see him run well, I am not sure about the draw though as wide draw could be a problem so not confident. Sing Out Loud is potentially very well handicapped now on a mark of 70, had placed form over the distance at Kempton off 82 for Chris Gordon just over a year ago, so I wouldn’t rule out a return to form for him, he also has a high draw though.

Selection - Dreamboat Dave @ 7/1

Good luck.

Only 6th, not helped by the draw, always turning wide, but probably wasn’t good enough today anyway.

LSP: +3.73 (win), -0.02 (place)

Still waiting for my first winner of the year

2:30 Taunton - its slightly disappointing that SNAPDRAGON FIRE hasn’t won over fences yet, but some of his hurdles form is very good, especially his last win in a novice hurdle last February when he won very easily carrying a double penalty, 4th from that race won handicap chase off 134 last week, so you have to think SF should be capable of winning off 131. He is also favourably weighted with two of his main market rivals, 5 lbs better off with Court Royale for 1 1/2 length defeat & 4 lbs better off with Our Merlin for 1 1/4 lengths, both those comparisons are over hurdles though so we have to be a bit careful. Also slightly worrying is that selection has finished 2nd twice as many times as he has won in his career, but it also shows that he is very consistent and likely to give his running, so overall I feel he has a good chance today. Paul Nicholls’ Envoye Special has been running poorly but is on a low enough mark now, so could be interesting if there is strong support for him.

Selection - Snapdragon Fire @ 3/1

Good luck.

Big drift out to 5/1, and never really looked like going close. After a good start to the thread it has gone downhill quickly, will give it another couple of days to see if results improve, if not then I will ditch it.

LSP: +2.73 (win), -1.02 (place)

6:45 Kempton - only 5 runners but it looks a tricky race. In these conditions races, it often pays to go with the top rated horses, indeed 3 of the 6 runnings of this race have been won by top rated horse, the 3 that didn’t win were all carrying penalties. Today none of the 5 runners has a penalty, and my selection SOLDIERS MINUTE is just 1 lb ahead of the next one. What makes this tricky is that all previous winners were rated 100+, but this looks a weak renewal by comparison with top rating of just 99. Initially, I was drawn towards Straight Right as he has the class and looks a big price, but he has rarely run over 6 furlongs and not been quick enough the few times he has, so trip maybe too short for him especially with a lack of strong pace in the race. Harry’s Bar is rated 3 lbs lower than my selection but he is improving so can’t rule him out either. But my selection has a good record here with 2 wins from 3, and return of Joe Fanning, who has been on board his last 3 wins, is a positive too. Bit concerned about the slight drift in betting, but I hope the price will come back in.

Selection - Soldiers Minute @ 9/4

Good luck.

Just not happening for me at the moment, should have gone with my initial judgement, Straight Right was the class horse and won despite it being wrong distance.

LSP: +1.73 (win), -2.02 (place)

1:55 Newcastle - 3 of the 5 runners are last time out winners, but I have gone with one that is yet to win this season. WINNING STREAK is very closely matched with Dark Regard on their running at Wolverhampton in November, he is 4 lbs better off for finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind DR. Selection was disappointing at Lingfield last time when sent off favourite, but he did have a poor draw that kept him wide all the way. In-form Ben Curtis riding for first time is also a positive for me, Curtis has ridden at least one winner everyday so far this year, and on his last 9 visits to Newcastle he has 16 winners from 52 (+20 LSP). Richard Fahey has won the race for last two years so his runner Bendy Spirit has to be respected after an easy win in lower class last time, but best piece of form In my opinion is that Wolverhampton race involving Dark Regard and Winning Streak as that looked a very strong nursery so my choice of selection was between these two. That race was over 6 furlongs, so it’s a question of which one of the two will be better suited by the extra furlong, Winning Streak’s dam was a 6 times winner over a mile, albeit at a low level (class 5/6) and he is also related to other mile winners so a good chance that he will be suited by step up in trip.

Selection - Winning Streak @ 5/1

Good luck.

Last, some way adrift of other 4 :( Taking a few days break after this.

LSP: +0.73 (win), -3.02 (place)

5:00 Chelmsford - poor race, made trickier by Ben Haslam having the first two in betting. Haslam’s last runner at Chelmsford was over 4 years ago (finished 2nd of 5, 2/1), and now he has 2 in one race so don’t know what to make of it, but anyway I want to look for bigger prices in a race like this. HIGHWAY ROBBERY was only 6th of 9 (11 lengths) over c&d last time, but has shown enough at this level, like his 3rd place at Wolverhampton in August, to suggest he can be competitive. Does clearly need to improve from last run though, so where do I think that improvement may come from? One thing I find at this low level, change of headgear can often bring about improvement, selection has been wearing cheek pieces for his last 10 runs, so it maybe interesting that they have been left off today. Trainer Julia Feilden’s record on first run after the cheekpieces are taken off is 14 from 73 (+147 LSP), that maybe a coincidence as there could be other factors for that good record, but it’s interesting anyway. Other thing that interests me is the jockey change, conditional jockey is 0 from 5 for the trainer but couple of those placed. Jockey’s overall record isn’t great but he seems to do particularly well at this track, 8 wins (14 other placed) from 60 (+9 LSP). On the negative side, trainer’s record here is poor, only 3 wins from 134, but all 3 of those wins were with horses that had run over c&d on their previous run (20 runners). Narrowing it even further only 10 of those also had a jockey change from previous run and the record reads 2213188410, of the 3 that failed to make the frame two were priced 25/1+. All of that might not mean anything but I think it’s interesting the trainer is running him here again, and with jockey change and headgear left off there is some improvement possible. As always, stakes should be kept small in a race like this.

Selection - Highway Robbery @ 14/1

Good luck.

Good luck AKD, you deserve a winner just for the write up.

First one beaten, virtually pulled up :(

LSP: -0.27 (win), -4.02 (place)

Short of time so not giving detailed reasoning.

2:50 Newbury - backed ROYAL RUBY despite the drift in betting. Unproven on heavy going, that would explain the drift, but his sire Yeats does get plenty of heavy going winners so there is hope, his form is good enough to competitive in this. Dangers include Glockenspiel and Mon Palois, latter might have been a selection at earlier price as he has dropped to a good mark but I feel the value has gone now.

Selection - Royal Ruby @ 13/2

Good luck.

Yesterday’s selection finished 5th.

LSP: -1.27 (win), -5.02 (place)

6:30 Newcastle - poor race as most of these find winning difficult. One of the favourites Puchita is a 30-race maiden, 16 of those were in class 6 so she has had plenty of chances, she often places though and trainer is in good form with 2 wins and 2 2nds from his last 6 runners and she has to be respected as she is Hugh Taylor’s selection. Other favourite Gunmaker has 1 win from 32 and he seems better over 7 furlongs. Lord Of The Glen usually runs well here and is a possible but he also hasn’t won for nearly 2 years. Closely matched with him on last race is my selection AVENUE OF STARS, who is 3 lbs better off today for finishing 1 1/2 behind, but he was drawn on the wrong side last time and is a bit better drawn today, before that he had been running over 7 furlongs (all 5 wins have come over 6f) so I think there is a good chance he could go well. He is now 5 lbs lower than his last win which came over this c&d almost exactly a year ago.

Selection - Avenue Of Stars @ 9/2

Good luck.