• AKD
    406
    Trying this for next couple of weeks by posting all my selections on same thread. Made a few changes to my selection methods, so want to see if it improves performance or makes it worse. It will still mostly be only one selection a day, will keep a record to Betfair SP win and place.

    2:10 Uttoxeter - what a tricky race and betting reflects that with all four runners priced between 11/4 to 3/1. Of four runners, 2 are making their seasonal reappearance after failing to complete on their final starts last season and other two were beaten 54 & 57 lengths recently, so none of them can be described to be in form. My selection is BOB FORD, pulled up on his last two starts, but before that he had run a good 3rd of 7 (beaten 4 lengths) here over inadequate 2 and half mile trip. Also placed 2nd here in January from 5 lbs higher mark than today. Both those pieces of form give him a chance especially over this more suitable distance. Having first run of season, but in past this has been the time to catch him as 4 of his 7 wins have come on first or second start of season, including his last win 2 years ago which also came in a veterans chase when he was gambled from 16/1 to 5/1. Having said that, we have to be cautious as he is 12 year old now and not many win races at this age even in veterans races. Trainer very good record at Uttoxeter, 8 wins from 29 (+14 LSP), 5 from 5 when priced 2/1 or shorter. Oneida Tribe looked value last night at 6/1 but that is long gone now, he finished just ahead of Goodtoknow last time, both were returning from absence, it’s a case of which one of them has come on more for the run, my guess is Goodtoknow and he is a backable price now. But I will stick with Bob Ford mainly due to course form, and hope he still retains enough ability.

    Selection - Bob Ford (15) @ 3/1

    Ignore the number in brackets next to selection for now, it’s just part of experiment.

    Good luck.
  • Doubler
    59
    Good luck AKD
  • Bet2win
    27
    Akd

    I would like to pm you. Do you happen to be on the Betfair forum. If so pm me I am

    lucky me

    On there
  • AKD
    406
    Hello Bet2win, sorry I am not on Betfair forum.
  • JOEMUGG
    393
    great shout won easy
  • Mugz
    420
    well done AKD, quality post as always.

    :up:
  • calvert
    144
    Thankx AKD
  • micky
    30
    Well worked out, missed it as was cooking.
  • malawi
    103
    never bet it but well done AKD
  • AKD
    406
    Thanks everyone. Had the race sewn up from a long way out, starting the thread with a winner is hopefully a good omen.

    LSP: +3.03 (win), +1.19 (place), after 5% commission
  • Bet2win
    27
    Akd
    have you an email I can use to send you stuff.
  • Maxh
    35
    Well done
  • moggy
    31
    Spot on thank you. :smile:
  • AKD
    406
    Hi all. Hope everyone is well and backing winners. Sorry for my sudden disappearance, long story but my broadband got disconnected without warning after my contract expired. It took a bit of time to switch service provider and also had some family things to deal with. Will pick this up from tomorrow, hopefully without any more interruptions.
  • peregrine
    180
    Nice to see you back for crimbo akd
  • malawi
    103
    look forward to your posts akd good luck
  • AKD
    406
    Thanks Peregrine, Malawi

    2:10 Hereford - BILLINGSLEY is the only one in this 8 runner field to have won on heavy going before (won two novice hurdles at Chepstow on heavy in spring of 2018). Interestingly, he was sent off 4/1 favourite for quite a hot class 3 handicap hurdle at Haydock around this time last year (finished in midfield 5th of 10) from 7 lbs higher mark than today which suggests he was well thought of, disappointing in two subsequent runs but again those weren’t bad races. Was out of his depth against much superior rivals on chasing debut last time, but did run ok for some way. This is more realistic level and if he can realise the potential he showed earlier in his career then he has a good chance from this sort of mark. He is not without risks due to lack of chasing experience and this is also a big drop back in distance (both wins have come at this distance though), but I am prepared to take a chance as there are doubts about others too - 5 of the 8 runners failed to complete last time and other 3 were beaten a combined total of 150 lengths on their previous start. Only a small bet as novice handicaps are never easy to predict and this looks most tricky.

    Selection - Billingsley @ 5/1

    Good luck.
  • AKD
    406
    Only 2 selections spread over nearly a month, but pleased to be able to say this thread still has a 100% record. Billingsley a very well backed winner.

    LSP: +7.59 (win), +2.20 (place)
  • Dazzler
    91
    Nice one AKD, thanks for posting :clap:
  • stainless
    86
    :up: :clap:
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