BEST of the BETS

Well done AKD, was on it myself.

:grin:

well done m8 ..... :starstruck:

glad your back AKD vwd

Thanks everyone.

1:45 Uttoxeter - bit of a no bet race really as my selection is the very short priced ONE STYLE. On all known form, it is difficult to oppose him and he should really be too good for these but we all know there is no such thing as a certainty, and like most people I also don’t like backing at such short odds so for purpose of this trial he is my selection but for betting I am trying to find one for the forecast spot.

Lickpenny Larry and Scartare come here in good form having finished 1st & 2nd over c&d 4 weeks ago, but that was a really weak race. That win has put LL on a career high mark and Scartare is a 27-race maiden so I am not keen on their chances. There is an interesting pace angle here too as 3 of the 5 runners, namely Lickpenny Larry, One Style and Louse Talk, are confirmed front runners so if they decide to take each other on then it’s likely to favour the favourite due to his greater stamina. Louse Talk is a bit of unknown for me, he hasn’t gone close since winning his first two starts in Feb/March 2018 but he has been tried in some big races and has continued to drop in ratings, so if there is a potential dark horse in the race then this could be the one. For my selection for the forecast spot, I have chosen Cougars Gold, unseated and pulled up last two starts but has a good record here, 2 wins from 3 runs over fences here, the defeat was finishing 4th of 7 when upped in class. Not expecting him to win but this is a bit easier than his last few races so wouldn’t surprise to see him return to form and stay on for a place.

Selection - One Style @ 1/2

Small forecast bet for interest - One Style/Cougars Gold @ 5/1

Good luck.

Huge drift on One Style, as big as 6/5 in places, so it has become hard for me to resist a little bet on it.

Nice easy winner AKD and a decent price come the end.Plus the fc well done.

Thanks, Doubler.

It’s a nice feeling when a race is run almost exactly as you imagined it. One Style won easily despite a few jumping errors, and Cougars Gold stayed on for 2nd to also give the forecast (9.91).

LSP: +8.42 (win), +2.64 (place)

Let’s see if we can make it 4 from 4, I think I have found one with a good chance, it is up against Racing Post nap though and also weak in early betting moves but let’s see.

1:40 Newcastle - THE DUBAI WAY, narrowly beaten when well fancied for the novice handicap on this card last year has a good chance to make amends. He is 2 from 2 since joining Charlie Mann, last win at Wetherby was particularly impressive. He was the only one in the field having his first run of season yet won readily from Storm Control (who himself has since won easily from a revised 4 lbs higher mark), there were 20 lengths back to the 3rd Catamaran Du Seuil, who had won that race the previous year, so that form looks very solid. Harry Bannister, who has ridden the horse (now owned by his father) on all 11 of his runs, has been very profitable on trainer’s chasers (+43 LSP from 55 rides (11 wins) in last 2 years), and he is 3 from 6 (+15.5) over fences here including a win in this race 2 years ago. 9 lbs rise since last win makes things harder but he likely has more to come and I will be disappointed if he doesn’t run well. Of others, Glittering Love was very progressive last season winning 4 times, but needs to improve again now upped in class on his return. Course specialist Ascot De Bruyere cannot be taken lightly, his record here is 1112, and although at age of 9 he may not have the likely improvement of others, this front runner is unlikely to let them go past him easily.

Selection - The Dubai Way @ 4/1

Main danger - Ascot De Bruyere

Good luck.

Backed into 5/2 but ran a strange sort of race, was going well in early stages but never really travelling after that, eventually finishing 5th.

LSP: +7.42 (win), +1.64 (place)

12:10 Leopardstown - not expecting much as this is a huge price, and these maiden hurdles usually go to those at top of betting, 12 of last 15 runnings of this race have been won by those in first two in betting but a 50/1 shot won two years ago so shocks can happen sometimes. Small each way bet for me on FORMULA ONE, rated 80+ on the flat after some good performances for Hugo Palmer and Jessica Harrington though didn’t achieve as much as might have been expected at the start as he has a very nice pedigree, by Frankel out of Abbaye winner Whiz Kid. Eventually beaten 97 lengths on hurdling debut and first run for owner/trainer Luke Comer last month, but he ran a bit better than that. It was a very strong novice race with a well regarded winner from Mullins yard and couple of previously unbeaten runners from McManus and Gigginstown in 2nd & 3rd, and selection led for a long way before getting tired. Trainer doesn’t get many winners, he has had only 4 hurdles winners from 101, but as most of his horses tend to be big prices, that record is not as bad as it looks. One of those winners was at this meeting 10 years ago in another maiden hurdle at 12/1 SP but went off on Betfair at over 200/1. His runner in this race last year finished 11th of 20 (beaten 27 lengths) @ 100/1, but that one was only rated in 60s on flat, so I am hoping this one with more ability can go a few places better.

Selection - Formula One @ 100/1

Good luck.

Ran like a 100/1 shot, always towards the back.

LSP: +6.42 (win), +0.64 (place)

12:45 Kempton - not much hurdling form to go on, but on flat form HOMER is well ahead of others so if he can jump he should be the one to beat. Thyme White needs to improve from his hurdling debut at Sandown 3 weeks ago but still looks the most likely for the forecast spot.

Selection - Homer @ 6/5

Good luck.

Another poor result for me this week, only 3rd.

LSP: +5.42 (win), -0.36 (place)

Only half an hour till race time, so not giving reasons for selection.

12:35 Limerick - Cut The Mustard @ 7/4

Good luck.

Big drift out to 7/2, but still won very easily.

LSP: +9.73 (win), +1.27 (place)

:cheer:

Thanks Peregrine.

2:00 Haydock - tricky race in which it’s hard to completely rule out any of the 6 runners. CLASSIC BEN was backed into favouritism on his seasonal return at Bangor but could finish only 4th of 8 (beaten 8 lengths), I feel he wasn’t suited by the heavy going and slightly better conditions today should give him a better chance of seeing out this trip. It was a difficult choice for me between this and Potters Legend, who has a very good record on soft (21231244F13) and has also won here before but I decided to go with less exposed Classic Ben who still has potential to improve. Price of 4/1 is a little bit shorter than I was expecting though as he is stepping up to this distance for first time, and it’s not an easy race with as many as 3 course winners in opposition, but I think he has a good chance as long as conditions don’t get worse, which they shouldn’t as forecast is for a sunny day.

Selection - Classic Ben @ 4/1

Good luck.

No excuses, the winner was too good, but bit disappointed that my one lost 2nd place at the finish.

LSP: +8.73 (win), +0.27 (place)

12:55 Warwick - today’s selection is a long shot, not expecting a win but hoping it can run well enough to place. NOTAWORDOFALIE won well in a bumper at Kelso in September despite being very weak in betting. She also has favourable form lines in bumpers with today’s top two in betting. She is 4 lbs better off despite finishing half a length ahead of Cill Anna at Aintree in October, though it should be noted that was Cill Anna’s debut so you would expect that one to improve. Selection also finished 7 lengths ahead of Emma’s Joy on same terms (not counting the weight for age allowance) in a bumper here in February. The problem is that she has run poorly twice in novice hurdles, both races at Exeter, finishing 10th of 16 first time, did a bit better next time with 6th of 14 but was still beaten 30+ lengths. There were no apparent excuses and she clearly needs to improve her jumping, but she has looked like she wants a longer trip so this step up to 2 mile 5 furlongs should suit. Jonjo Jnr is riding very well at the moment, 11 wins (20%) and 14 places from 54 rides at +13 LSP this month. As mentioned earlier, I am not expecting much as this looks a good race, 8 of the 11 runnings of this have been won by horses priced shorter than 5/1, and two at top today both look good. Favourite is rated 124, and won a novice here by 13 lengths, although this is a better race it’s difficult to see her not finish in first 2 today, and Cill Anna finished ahead of a 119-rated horse over this trip on her first run over hurdles. My selection is 40/1, and I will be happy if she can get into 3rd place, 16/1 with Bet365 for 6 places is not a bad bet.

Selection - Notawordofalie @ 40/1

Good luck.

Very poor, doesn’t know how to jump. I should have concentrated on the top 2 as they had the race between them.

LSP: +7.73 (win), -0.73 (place)