BEST of the BETS

Many thanks this is very useful
I find course and distance essential when evaluating
The other key issue from me is beaten favourites particularly in Ireland
Do you have any interesting correlation to offer on this factor?

Thanks, Maxh, I will get back to you about beaten favourites.

I should clarify my above post by saying that backing every c&d winner at these courses will not guarantee a profit. Course & distance form is just one factor, of course many other things have to be considered. Stats show that on average c&d winners have about 4-5% (no more than that) edge over horses who haven’t won over c&d in terms of profit/loss. But at certain courses that edge is a lot bigger than average, for expample at Hexham which has always been considered a specialist’s course that edge is nearly 20%, so that was the idea behind above list.

I have looked at the beaten favourite angle and they do tend to do a little bit better than average. There doesn’t seem to be much difference between UK and Ireland when it comes to performance of beaten favourites, very marginally better in Ireland but not enough for it to be a factor. Biggest clear factor, not surprisingly, seems to be class of race, those dropping in class do few points better than average, horses running in same class perform average, and those moving up in class perform worse than average. Note: I know they don’t use class system in Ireland, but it can be worked out by looking at difference between prize money. Another big factor, although sample size for this isn’t huge, is if the horse is running very quickly after last run. Those beaten favourites who run within 7 days of their last run show much better return than those with a bigger break. And when you combine these two factors of beaten favourites dropping in class and also running within 7 days, you have a system that has shown a profit over last 10 years, blindly backing these qualifiers has shown a profit of 4% at SP and 9% at Betfair SP, but you only get on average about 60 of these qualifiers in a year. You can further enhance this system by only betting horses who are favourite again, and I am actually going to use this as a system. Horses who meet all 4 of these conditions of beaten fav last time, dropping in class, running within 7 days, and favourite again, have returned a 30% profit at SP over last ten years. Only trouble is you only get about 30 of these bets in a year, another drawback is you have to wait till before the off to see if the horse will go off favourite. Record over last 10 years is 157 wins from 329 bets for a strike rate of 48% and +99 LSP, two qualifiers so far this year both won at 3/1 (Foreign Legion, who has incidentally run up a 4-timer) and 5/2 (Space Bandit).

Good write up AKD

Thanks, Calvert.

Also a list of top 10 performing trainers when it comes to last time beaten favourites. But be careful with this as sample size is not very big, average of less than 200 runners per trainer.

1. Ben Pauling
2. Chris Wall
3. Alistair Whillans
4. David Lanigan
5. John Balding
6. Willie McCreery
7. John Mackie
8. Seamus Mullins
9. Andrew Oliver
10. Dean Ivory

Terrific analysis
BF is by far the most significant of all those listed in the RP table

Excellent stuff AKD.....you could also factor in trainers who particularly well at certain courses and when all are colliding you have a pretty good assumption for a bet! Stuart Edmunds for instance runs his decent ones at Fakenham and therefore his jockey Gethings is also very good round Fakenham. So get an Edmunds runner C and D winner ridden by Gethings and you have a basis for a bet. If it was a BF last time at the course, all the merrier. ive always used these factors when looking at the more moderate or "hidden " horses. really good horses will win everywhere but there are voodoos eg Desert Orchid unbeatable at Kempton and Wincanton but very beatable around Cheltenham.

I love these kind of posts, brings so much more than "i fancy this and that", though of course plenty of room for these too. But building up factors is a great way of narrowing down a field and then let your eyesight do the rest, they are the best tipsters!

thanks for the info.

Thanks guys. There is a possible bet tomorrow under the beaten favourite system. Gowanbuster (8:00 Newcastle) currently meets all 4 conditions for the system. It was beaten favourite last time, is turning out quickly after running here on Friday, and is dropping from class 5 to class 6, and it is currently the favourite. It is priced 5/2 at the moment against 10/3 2nd favourite. I will wait till close to the off and will only bet if it looks certain that it will go off favourite.

Interesting
It looks like they may be trying to recover their money
Maybe we can tuck in also!
Many thanks

3-1 joint fav now on 365
In from 5's

Very weak on exchanges, looks unlikely to go off favourite at the moment but there’s still over 10 minutes to go, so just watching the betting at the moment.

No bet.

You called that one well akd
I plunged nonetheless
Ah well!

Only 3rd in the end. Made the right decision not to bet, any system has to be followed to the letter, there will be more opportunities, will just need a lot of patience with this system.

Unlucky Maxh, for some time it did look like it might well hold on.

A possible for the beaten favourite system in 4:40 Doncaster tomorrow but it’s not favourite at the moment. Zig Zag meets other three conditions but it’s only 2nd favourite (9/4 against 9/5 favourite) at the moment. I will only back it if it looks certain to go off favourite.

Thanks

It did go off favourite, and I did back it but it finished tailed off, very disappointing.

Thanks for the heads up