Race pricing effort
  • brian1147
    191
    Was looking at the 3.15 taunton for tomorrow, 8 runners, sp's look evenly matched.
    inspect 7.30, should be safe though.
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  • AKD
    492
    Cheers Brian. I make this a very tight handicap with not a lot between at least 5 of the 8 runners. I am favouring course form, so Railroad Junkie is the narrow pick for me.

    RP: 5/2 Cracking Destiny, 3/1 Spring Wolf, 4/1 Railroad Junkie, 5/1 Midnight Chill, 13/2 Cigarisi, 10/1 Minellatillmorning, 25/1 Drops Of Jupitor, 33/1 Legend Lady

    My prices : 7/2 Railroad Junkie, 4/1 Cigarisi, 9/2 Minellatillmorning, 11/2 Spring Wolf, 6/1 Cracking Destiny, 15/2 Legend Lady, 17/2 Midnight Chill, 25/1 Drops Of Jupitor

    Current prices : 9/4 Cracking Destiny, 7/2 Spring Wolf, 4/1 Railroad Junkie, Midnight Chill, 13/2 Cigarisi, 10/1 Minellatillmorning, 25/1 Drops Of Jupitor, 40/1 Legend Lady
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  • brian1147
    191
    made even tighter by the non runner
    will print the fuller version later.
    taunt,name.........................tissue
15:15,Midnight Chill............4.46 
15:15,Railroad Junkie, nr
15:15,Spring Wolf...............5.33
15:15,Minellatillmorning.. ...5.25
15:15,Cracking Destiny.......4.8 
15:15,Drops Of Jupitor.... ...8.4 
15:15,Cigarisi......................8.6
15:15,Legend Lady......... ...21
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  • AKD
    492
    My revised prices after the non runner

    3/1 Cigarisi, 7/2 Minellatillmorning, 9/2 Spring Wolf, Cracking Destiny, 6/1 Legend Lady, 7/1 Midnight Chill, 28/1 Drops Of Jupitor (price should have read 33/1 in my earlier post)

    Brian, I see the main difference between our forecasts is the contrasting prices of Midnight Chill and Cigarisi. I did not factor in chasing experience in my pricing, if I had then Cigarisi might have been a little lower in the list having first run over fences.

    Interesting to note there is a bit of early money for Drops of Jupitor on the exchange, 6% of total money has been traded on this horse which is a bit high for an outsider, to make the comparison, almost exactly same amount has been traded on Spring Wolf which is joint 2nd fav.
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  • AKD
    492
    And I see the bookies have reacted, DoJ into 12/1 from 25/1.
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  • calvert
    378
    Notice Minellatillmorning Won at this meeting last year some horses seem to come good certain times of year
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  • AKD
    492
    Well spotted, Calvert. 2 of the 4 winners of this race had previously won at the course (that’s 2 winners from just 3 runners), and another winner had previously finished 3rd at the track. That’s why I thought Railroad Junkie would have had a good chance as he likes it here, but going change made them pull it out.
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  • brian1147
    191
    I noticed that my tissue and yours, both add up to roughly 115%.
    i've adjusted this one to a 100% book (app).
    the value would seem to be minellatillmorning but the ratings and class would make
    me follow my tissue.

    NAME                 PSP   WGT   TS    RPR   RAW  BF1   BF2   CLASS  RATING VAL 
cracking destiny.....3.5...152...18....132.. 104 .2.76*.2.88*.4.6.... 105 ..5.3  ..
spring wolf..........4.....154...00....129.. 103 .5.3*..5.4*..15.83.. 104 ..5.9  ..
railroad junkie......5.....161...36....131.. 104 .NR....NR....7.33... 105 ..NR
midnight chill.......6.....162...33....134.. 104 .4.7...4.7...11.04.. 105 ..4.9  ..
cigarisi.............7.5...151...31....00... 55 ..8.6x..8.4x..4.44... 56 ...9.6  ..
minellatillmorning...11....152...17....00... 54 ..12....11.5..9.66... 55 ...5.7  ..
drops of jupitor.....26....151...00....123.. 93 ..19x...22x...5.75... 94 ...8.1  ..
legend lady..........34....149...00....00... 51 ..75x...60x...11.06.. 52 ...24.5  .
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  • AKD
    492
    Hi Brian, yes I have been adding around 15-20% overround to my prices, so that I can better compare with bookies prices.

    I was wondering about a couple of columns in your table, Psp, Wgt, Rpr are obvious, and I now know that Ts refers to trainer’s rtf. About the 2 Betfair columns, do you take those price readings at a certain time of day, and what do the * and x next to some of them denote?
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  • brian1147
    191
    normally taken at 9am and an hour before the 1st race, the * comes from a dobbing site (where i get the bf odds) it denotes a horse who has been running well for dobbing purposes, the x denotes horses who have not been running well.
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  • AKD
    492
    Ah ok, thanks Brian.
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  • AKD
    492
    Cigarisi being gambled before the off into 5/1 from 9/1
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  • AKD
    492
    SP: 6/4 Cracking Destiny (3rd), 3/1 Midnight Chill (2nd), 5/1 Cigarisi (4th), 6/1 Spring Wolf (Won), 13/2 Minellatillmorning (fell), 33/1 Drops of Jupitor (last of finishers)

    Race of changing fortunes, Midnight Chill touched 1.20 in running, Minellatillmorning (1.75) & Cigarisi (2.28) but it was Spring Wolf who prevailed in the end having touched a high of 24.0 in running. Winner was only 4th best (in tight betting) on both our forecasts and 2nd best on RP’s.

    I am looking at 4:30 Market Rasen for tomorrow.
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  • AKD
    492
    Bit of a nightmare of race tomorrow, it’s a handicap hurdle but so many of the runners have had so little racing, it’s difficult to get a handle of form, but this is what I have come up with. I make Treasure Dillon a narrow favourite in a very open market.

    RP: 4/1 Loch Linnhe, Notachance, 5/1 Tikk Tock Boom, 7/1 Corinto, 8/1 Treasure Dillon, Eur Gone West, 10/1 Oscar Ceremony, 12/1 Very Extravagant, Wasdell, 33/1 Minella Gathering, Slanemore Hill

    My prices: 6/1 Treasure Dillon, 13/2 Notachance, Minella Gathering, 7/1 Tikk Tock Boom, 15/2 Wasdell, 8/1 Corinto, Loch Linnhe, 9/1 Oscar Ceremony, 10/1 Very Extravagant, 11/1 Eur Gone West, 16/1 Slanemore Hill
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  • brian1147
    191
    Time for a re-think , up to now it's been look for any horse with a better price than i have
    made it, without looking to see if the horse has a realistic chance of winning.
    Todays race throws up a decent chance NOTACHANCE (apart from the name) joint top rated,
    highest class rating, TS figure is good, morning price slightly better. (fingers crossed)
    going to have a look tru' the others to see what turns up.

    NAME                 PSP   WGT   TS    RPR   RAW  BF1   BF2   CLASS  RATING VAL  
loch linnhe..........5.....157...17....124.. 100 .4.8...4.8...3.86... 101 ..10.1  .
notachance...........5.....166...71....114.. 100 .8.....8.....7.82... 101 ..7.3  ..
tikk tock boom.......6.....161...23....115.. 98 ..14....14....4.95... 99 ...8.5  ..
corinto..............8.....160...50....118.. 97 ..8.4...8.4...6.2.... 98 ...7.5  ..
eur gone west........9.....168...63....118.. 99 ..12....12....6.89... 100 ..10.8  .
treasure dillon......9.....159...42....116.. 95 ..7.6...7.6...0.29... 96 ...8.2  ..
oscar ceremony.......11....163...100...117.. 96 ..6.8...6.8...6.09... 97 ...8.8  ..
very extravagant.....13....153...9.....123.. 95 ..18.5*.18.5*.0.13... 96 ...11.9  .
wasdell..............13....159...29....114.. 94 ..15....15....3.74... 95 ...11.3  .
minella gathering....34....140...43....123.. 89 ..28....28....1.36... 90 ...7  ....
slanemore hill.......34....164...20....00... 56 ..55....55....5.14... 57 ...69.8  .
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  • AKD
    492
    Good luck, Brian. Interesting that both of us have Minella Gathering so short, recent form is poor but one of only 3 to have actually won a race.

    I am finding that the winners have come from the ones we have priced closer to SP (last couple of days at least) and not from the ones where SP is a lot bigger or shorter than our prices. But there haven’t been enough races to draw any conclusions yet, will analyse results after we have gone through at least 10 races.
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  • AKD
    492
    Lots of changes in market, Oscar Ceremony (7/2) and Treasure Dillon (4/1) have gone to top, both were 11.0 on exchanges earlier, OC has taken about 1.5 times more money than TD on Betfair so far.
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  • brian1147
    191
    Wisdom Of the Masses (WOM)
    odds based on wom

    odds name
    3.23 Oscar Ceremony
    5.51 Loch Linnhe
    5.13 Treasure Dillon
    11.44 Corinto
    15.93 Notachance
    27.83 Eur Gone West
    24.34 Wasdell
    31.67 Very Extravagant
    51.21 Minella Gathering
    39.76 Tikk Tock Boom
    107.73 Slanemore Hill

    more at four
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  • brian1147
    191 
    Wom	Horse	         Act. Odds
3.55	Oscar Ceremony	   4.8
5.54	Loch Linnhe	   6
5.8	Treasure Dillon	   6.4
11.35	Notachance	   7.8
11.09	Corinto	           8.2
26.89	Eur Gone West	   14
28.86	Wasdell	           18.5
25.32	Tikk Tock Boom	   23
51.55	Minella Gathering  24
21.88	Very Extravagant   21
101.77	Slanemore Hill	   95
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  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Brian. Looks like a 3-horse race based on those odds. Not long to wait now..

    Are you picking tomorrow’s race, as I picked today’s?
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