Race pricing effort
  • AKD
    492
    Just for a bit of fun and interest, I had a go at pricing up a race. I am no expert, so treat this as it’s meant and I would welcome any input. I had a go at 3:10 race at Wolverhampton, considered factors like race conditions, horse form, pedigree, trainer, jockey. I did not look at the prices first, now going to compare my price with RP forecast and from ATR.

    Racing Post : 9/4 Wings Of Time, 11/4 Reggae Runner, 3/1 Solar Heights, 8/1 Perfect Grace, 12/1 Ardimento, Golden Grenade, 20/1 Atlantic City, 25/1 Thedevilinneville

    At The Races : 5/2 Wings Of Time, 3/1 Reggae Runner, 5/1 Solar Heights, 13/2 Perfect Grace, 8/1 Ardimento, 12/1 Golden Grenade, Thedevilinneville, 14/1 Atlantic City

    My price : 11/4 Wings Of Time, 5/1 Ardimento, Reggae Runner, 11/2 Perfect Grace, 6/1 Solar Heights, 15/2 Golden Grenade, 9/1 Thedevilinneville, 28/1 Atlantic City

    It seems we all more or less agree on favourite Wings Of Time, main difference is I have Ardimento as joint 2nd fav compared to them having it a lot lower down the list. I am not having a bet as this is only an experiment but if I was then my bet would be on Ardimento.
    AKD Options
  • brian1147
    203
    my efforts look like this,
    reggae runner and perfect grace would seem to be the value in mine.

    NAME                 PSP   WGT   TS    RPR   RAW  BF1   BF2   CLASS  RATING VAL 
wings of time........3.25..119...100...73... 74 ..2.04..2.04..6.55... 81 ...4.8  ..
reggae runner........3.75..119...47....84... 77 ..8.....8.....6.32... 73 ...6.1  ..
solar heights........4.....114...78....90... 76 ..3.95..3.95..8.13... 77 ...5.7  ..
perfect grace........9.....114...61....85... 70 ..21....21....6.62... 69 ...5.1  ..
ardimento............13....119...25....83... 70 ..13.5..13.5..3.11... 71 ...10.2  .
golden grenade.......13....119...28....00... 42 ..38....38....0.91... 41 ...19.5  .
atlantic city........21....119...50....00... 41 ..30....30....5...... 41 ...10.6  .
thedevilinneville....26....119...50....73... 65 ..46....46....4.52... 65 ...6.3  ..
    brian1147 Options
  • brian1147
    203
    sorry posted the wrong one the race, now looks like this.

    NAME                 PSP   WGT   TS    RPR   RAW  BF1   BF2   CLASS  RATING VAL  
wings of time........3.25..119...100...73... 74 ..2.04..1.78..6.55... 84 ...4.8  ..
reggae runner........3.75..119...47....84... 77 ..8.....9.6...6.32... 72 ...6.1  ..
solar heights........4.....114...78....90... 76 ..3.95..5.....8.13... 75 ...5.7  ..
perfect grace........9.....114...61....85... 70 ..21....NR....6.62... 67 ...5.1  ..
ardimento............13....119...25....83... 70 ..13.5..9.2...3.11... 72 ...10.2  .
golden grenade.......13....119...28....00... 42 ..38....36....0.91... 41 ...19.5  .
atlantic city........21....119...50....00... 41 ..30....NR....5...... 40 ...10.6  .
thedevilinneville....26....119...50....73... 65 ..46....55....4.52... 65 ...6.3  ..
    brian1147 Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Brian, very interesting. I take it the last column (Val) is your price. Atlantic City and Perfect Grace non runners now, looking at all the forecasts it’s clear no one expected Wings Of Time to be odds on, let’s see how it goes in the race.
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  • AKD
    492
    Starting prices : 4/9 Wings Of Time (Won), 9/2 Solar Heights (3rd), 7/1 Ardimento (4th), 14/1 Reggae Runner (2nd), 50/1 Golden Grenade (6th), 80/1 Thedevilinneville (5th)

    Favourite didn’t have to work hard for the win, to be fair he was top on nearly all the ratings but not clear enough to suggest such a short price. I might pick another race tomorrow, and try again maybe with a few adjustments.

    Well done, Brian, on highlighting Reggae Runner as value on your ratings, good 2nd.
    AKD Options
  • brian1147
    203
    cheers AKD, would be nice if HIPPO was to put a race up, for comparison.
    brian1147 Options
  • AKD
    492
    Good article on creating own prices https://backlucrative.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Create-your-own-odds.pdf
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Looking at 5:45 race at Kempton

    RP : 6/4 Probability, 9/2 Xtara, 5/1 Distant Mirage, 6/1 Zaula, 8/1 Urban Highway, 16/1 Haats Off, Lysander Belle, 20/1 Under Curfew

    My prices : 10/3 Xtara, 9/2 Probability, Distant Mirage, Zaula, 15/2 Haats Off, 17/2 Under Curfew, 9/1 Lysander Belle, 12/1 Urban Highway

    Current prices : 5/4 Probability, 11/4 Distant Mirage, 4/1 Xtara, 7/1 Zaula, 10/1 Urban Highway, 16/1 Haats Off, 25/1 Lysander Belle, Under Curfew

    Again no bets for me, only watching, but Zaula and Xtara would be the value for me.
    AKD Options
  • brian1147
    203
    A major gamble would seem to be taking place on DISTANT MIRAGE, so i think
    the prices will be fairly bigger than they should be.
    That said xtara on ratings and class would have been my value bet.

    NAME                 PSP   WGT   TS    RPR   RAW  BF1   BF2   CLASS  RATING VAL  
probability..........2.5...133...57....84... 86 ..2.22..3.25..7.59... 87 ...4.7  ..
xtara................5.5...137...40....79... 78 ..5.9...6.....15.12.. 79 ...4.2  ..
distant mirage.......6.....126...80....82... 75 ..6.8...3.1...7.4.... 76 ...8  ....
zaula................7.....130...57....76... 73 ..8.8...9.6...6.57... 74 ...6.9  ..
urban highway........9.....123...56....80... 71 ..9.8...13.5..6.54... 72 ...8  ....
haats off............17....127...80....76... 70 ..29....28....7.35... 71 ...10.4  .
lysander belle.......17....117...25....82... 68 ..42*...44*...5.97... 69 ...13.2  .
under curfew.........21....128...56....80... 71 ..60....40....2.42... 72 ...8  ....
    brian1147 Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Brian, it’s good to be able to compare prices. Our prices are not too dissimilar for most of runners today. Not surprised that Probability has drifted, Distant Mirage has a chance but now she too looks short. I made Xtara fav on strength of c&d form, but I see not a lot has been traded on it on Betfair, so it might drift.
    AKD Options
  • calvert
    413
    Good Thread Brian and AKD all 3 mentioned involved F/c paid £8 T/c £14
    calvert Options
  • AKD
    492
    SP: 9/4 Xtara (2nd), 5/2 Distant Mirage (won), Probablity (3rd), 8/1 Urban Highway (6th), 16/1 Zaula (4th), 25/1 Haats Off (7th), 40/1 Under Curfew (5th), 50/1 Lysander Belle (8th)

    Well done us, Brian, ok we didn’t get the winner but we beat the Racing Post today at least, It looked unlikely, seeing their favourite at 5/4 this morning, this is what this thread is about - getting the market right. I need to make some adjustments to my prices for outsiders as I am getting them too short.

    Thanks, Calvert.
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Here is some data to back up what I said about importance of predicting the market correctly.

    These are the results of favourites for past 5 years

    28.24% of forecast favourites won
    30.89% of early (morning) favourites won
    33.31% of Industry SP favourites won
    34.39% of Betfair SP favourites won

    You can see, the closer you get to the race time, the more accurate the market gets. That’s a big percentage difference between the performance of favourite you see in the paper or even at morning prices and the horse that is favourite at the off.
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    1:35 Southwell, big field low grade handicap and it was quite challenging. Not surprisingly, my prices make this a very open race and I have RP’s top 2 at double figure prices so I may have got this badly wrong but let’s see.

    RP : 5/1 First Excel, Poets Pride, The Golden Cue, 7/1 Fly True, Kommander Kirkup, Liamba, 8/1 Muatadel, Pearl Acclaim, 14/1 Capla Demon, Newstead Abbey, 20/1 Coiste BoDhar, 25/1 Major Crispies, 40/1 Sir Geoffrey, 50/1 Interchoice Star

    My prices : 13/2 Pearl Acclaim, 7/1 Fly True, 8/1 Liamba, Interchoice Star, 17/2 The Golden Cue, 9/1 Kommander Kirkup, 10/1 Capla Demon, Newstead Abbey, 11/1 First Excel, Muatadel, 14/1 Sir Geoffrey, 25/1 Poets Pride, 50/1 Coiste BoDhar, Major Crispies

    Prices taken from Paddy Power last night : 5/1 First Excel, Poets Pride, 11/2 Muatadel, 7/1 The Golden Cue, 15/2 Fly True, Liamba, Pearl Acclaim, 9/1 Kommander Kirkup, 12/1 Capla Demon, Newstead Abbey, 25/1 Coiste BoDhar, 33/1 Major Crispies, 50/1 Sir Geoffrey, 100/1 Interchoice Star
    AKD Options
  • AKD
    492
    Notes : to explain a few of my prices that look out of line, course form has been a big factor in my pricing so that would explain why I have Poets Pride so big as he has never run here before. I haven’t factored age into my calculations, that would explain why teenagers Interchoice Star and Sir Geoffrey are much shorter on my prices.

    It looks like a no bet race for me, but there maybe a little bit value in Pearl Acclaim.
    AKD Options
  • calvert
    413
    Think it could be a big F/c T/c if manage to pick right ones
    calvert Options
  • AKD
    492
    You are right, Calvert. Pearl Acclaim has continued to drift, I had a small bet on that because I am following Griffiths as posted on other thread. Fly True remains strong in betting, and looks the most likely favourite to me but price is about right so no great value, it has to be included in forecasts tricasts though imo. Just for a laugh, I have had a tiny each way on Interchoice Star (6 places, 50/1 Bet365), last time he returned from a similar absence 18 months ago, he finished 5th of 12 (66/1) over c&d.
    AKD Options
  • brian1147
    203
    Not really a race i would get involved in, much prefer around the 8runner mark(3 places).
    But here goes my idea of the winner would be POETS PRIDE , but the value has gone,
    the possible value would be pearl acclaim the trainers rtf figure (TS) is not good (one but
    is enough to put me off.
    Have tagged on AKD's prices,hope you don't mind'.

    NAME                 PSP   WGT   TS    RPR   RAW  BF1   BF2   CLASS  RATING BRIAN  AKD
first excel..........6.....135...67....78... 77 ..6.....5.7...0...... 78 ...13.6  .12
poets pride..........6.....132...50....76... 75 ..8.8...6.2...6.15... 76 ...8.7  ..26
the golden cue.......6.....131...00....78... 75 ..7.....8.8...4.2.... 76 ...7.2  ..9.5
fly true.............8.....118...50....75... 69 ..9.8...7.4...6.65... 70 ...10.5  .8
kommander kirkup.....8.....134...00....79... 75 ..15.5..16....1.98... 76 ...11.8  .10
liamba...............8.....128...53....79... 73 ..NR*...NR*...5.13... 74 ...16.4  .NR
muatadel.............9.....132...85....79... 74 ..5.6x..7.8x..5.9.... 75 ...9.7  ..12
pearl acclaim........9.....133...27....80... 75 ..14....16....5.56... 76 ...12.3  .7.5
capla demon..........15....134...54....79... 73 ..11....14....6.16... 74 ...15  ...11
newstead abbey.......17....129...33....79... 71 ..18....15.5..1.59... 72 ...17.4  .11
coiste bodhar........21....114...31....71... 63 ..60....48....3.67... 64 ...14.6  .26
major crispies.......26....130...100...77... 70 ..50....38....2.15... 71 ...14.6  .51
sir geoffrey.........41....114...31....76... 64 ..65x...60x...1.07... 65 ...12.3  .15
interchoice star.....51....114...00....63... 60 ..170x..270x..0.36... 61 ...21.4  .9
    brian1147 Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Brian, looks good.

    I was thinking it will be a good idea if we take turns in selecting a race, and also if Calvert or someone else wants to nominate a race for us to look at that will be good too. Only thing I ask is, it will be easier for me if I know the night before which race we are working on. So if you want to select a race for tomorrow, that would be great.
    AKD Options
  • brian1147
    203
    will do.
    brian1147 Options
  • AKD
    492
    SP: 4/1 First Excel (5th), 6/1 Muatadel (2nd), The Golden Cue (3rd), Poets Pride (4th), 13/2 Fly True (7th), 10/1 Newstead Abbey (Won), 11/1 Capla Demon (10th), 12/1 Kommander Kirkup (last), 14/1 Pearl Acclaim (8th), 40/1 Major Crispies (6th), Coiste BoDhar (9th), 66/1 Sir Geoffrey (11th), 250/1 Interchoice Star (12th), Liamba (n/r)

    That was a minor shock result, none of us had the winner in our first 6, and it was only 6th best in betting. Brian did best out of us with his top 3 finishing 2nd, 3rd & 4th, Racing Post’s top 3 included 3rd & 4th, and less said about my top 3 the better.
    AKD Options
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