BEST of the BETS

Betting shop fodder!

I much prefer the all weather racing to turf and jumps

Over 80% of my bets are placed on all weather racing, about 15% on turf and 5% jumps although I actually prefer the jumps to flat turf.

The all weather presents the best opportunity for owners and punters to make a profit

Conditions are much more consistent, on turf there is too much last minute messing about with stalls, rails and needless watering.

An owner and trainer can target a race to smash the bookies months in advance on the all weather, enabling them to at least recoup their circa 25k costs of having a runner in training. Its a lot more risky on turf.

Most tipsters are focusing on the all weather as it gives them the best opportunity to show a points profit. Hugh Taylor was focusing on the all weather at the height of the turf season due to all the messing about on the turf.

Jumping is next best as there is less messing with the course and any messing can be negated by the flag start and distance of the race.


My personnel order is

1 All weather
2 Jumps
3 Flat Turf

Chepstow today - Bends have been moved out onto fresh ground, adding approximately 102 yards to races 3 and 4, that’s nearly half a furlong.

Musselburgh - Bottom bend has been moved out 15 yards from the inner, + 98 yards to races 1 and 4


Another negative for the turf, they always get the going wrong, another reason to avoid having a serious bet on flat turf

The all weather is a joke same horses beating each other every second week a farse

But i love sport and youre only talking about betting. Flipping a coin is a better medium or lumping on Lewis Hamilton! But when youve stopped yawning youll move on!

Oh yes, add US racing to my AW boredom list. Same shaped tracks with nags running on drugs so the horse goes through the pain barrier...very entertaining!

Top and bottom of it the A's is a fiddlers paradise. Full stop. Don't get me wrong I have the odd bet when I fancy one. But its bent full circle similar to the Olympic rings.:naughty:

hate the jumps flat ok
aw love it
agree with roo
just look at hugh taylor hes always on the aw

all the racing is cheated baring big races worth good dough the AW is just a better chance of getting some big price winners

In my view it’s not cheating its just the nature of a sport that involves animals and an economic model which means prize money does not cover the costs of competing.

Is there any other sport with such a derisory return for an owners investment?

The costs of having a class 6 plodder in training is similar to having a group 1 performer, about 25k per year.

There is virtually no chance of winning this back through prize money with such a horse, the only route is through having a punt on the right day.

If you own such a class 6 plodder you are going to set a plan with the trainer of say, targeting a 0-55 1 mile handicap at Wolves in November/December. If the horse is currently rated 65 and that rating is a true reflection of its ability then you have to get it down the handicap, so the trainer gets it as fit as possible at home in say June, July, then get it on the track to build up race fitness through August-October, running over a bit further, or a bit shorter, or at the wrong track or in higher grades, or with sub optimal race tactics, eg holding up a front runner or sending a hold up horse to the front or racing 4 horses wide or put a inexperienced jockey up. Then when it’s rated 55 or less and it’s fit then you can start to enter it some 1 mile 0-55 races over 1 mile at Wolves, maybe the first time it gets a poor draw so you again send it to the front a bit early or hold it up a bit longer than optimum. Then you enter it again, it gets a nice low draw, you put the best jockey on, you know you have at least a 10lb in hand.

You should get decent odds say 8-1, so you have a decent bet, say a 5k win, the horse wins and you get 40k. You can then enter it in a few more for prize money only, for a bit of fun, the odds will now be too skinny for a decent bet.

After a couple of races you then arrange with the trainer to send the horse into the field with his mates for a few months to lower the training costs and then set another plan for the next year.


That’s how the game works at that level. It’s similar at the top level for different reasons. Around this time of year Cheltenham horses will be running in stakes races and getting beat by horses rated lower, because the Cheltenham horses and not 100% fit and are running on the wrong ground, but they have been in the field for a few months and now it’s time to get on the track building up to March. Most horses are not 100% fit and trying to win all year round, no matter what level they run at. There are the odd black swans who are so good they can win every race but most are the white swans that have a target and build towards the target.


Without owners there is no horse racing and I have no problem with them doing their best to recoup some of the outlay through the betting. That’s the reality of how it works, so as a punter you should accept the reality and read the form with the owners perspective in mind, there is no point complaining about it because it isn’t going to change.

Good Write up Insidethestables

My order,
Jumps
AW
Flat

Inside...£5k on a class 6 race at 8/1 on the AW? Real world calling Mars...impossible! First of all you have 4 or 5 bookies (sometimes outnumbering the crowd!), all at the same prices. If you strolled up with your £5 k (once they stopped laughing), they would tell you you can have £200 on! Plus if your horse is with a Best or Boyle of this world the answer is "no thanks". The AW markets are rubbish and stacked in the bookies favour as there is noone there to affect them.

run them at Bath or Windsor on monday night and you can get on as there are crowds there and bookies (Windsor, still the best track for having a bet), but AW? No Chance!

Hippo, you think like an outsider not an insider. The rules are different for those on the inside of the sport, where the old adage, ‘where there is a will there is a way’ holds and always will.

Don’t believe me, here’s one of the best at it on the all weather



https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/nov/29/trainer-david-evans-ladbrokes-non-runner-tip

Is there any race on the all weather which sticks in your mind. One that I don't think anyone can forget was the keiron Fallon ride that was miles clear only to get nailed .at Lingfield . :joke:

I kind of agree with both sides if that makes sense. If the question is purely about horse racing as a sport, then my answer is no I don’t like the all weather racing. Better horses run on the turf and it’s more pleasing to the eye, so I am with Hippo on that as I enjoy watching racing as a sport and not just for betting. But Insidethestables has made some very good points and I agree with most of them, best thing about all weather racing is the consistency of going and also the draw, which makes the job of finding winners a lot easier. It means you can reliably use the speed ratings in combination with the draw bias (it has got me some good wins especially at Kempton) and you won’t go far wrong.

That’s a good way of putting it AKD. I also prefer the turf for flat racing as a sport. I won’t miss the classics or Ascot etc but from a regular betting perspective it’s the all weather, hands down.

agree with all you said but you cant get away and happy the way it works but tis still cheating example Barney curly takes class 2 horses runs them so badly they drop down to class 5 or 6 animals put all 4 in shit races takes the prices the night before when 10 and 12/1 the next morning all are evens and hose up thats not just training fees

Barney was a bit of a special case, his business model was unique for a trainer in that the majority of his revenue came from betting. Most of the time his was the sole owner of the horses in his yard, he didn’t get income from owners. His gambling kept the stable going including the wages of his staff. He has also channeled most of his gains into charities in Africa.

He had an almost comical vendetta against the bookies, It turns out this vendetta was rooted in his own father being ruined by gambling.

Again his modus operandi was no secret and as a punter you just factor it in.

I personally found his coups entertaining, three or four class 2 types opening up at double figure odds in class 6 handicaps and scooting home on the bridle at SP odds on favourites, all on the same day. It not often the bookies get caught with their pants down and he did it regularly, he didn’t break any rules and appears to have put his (bookmakers) money into noble causes.

Ive achieved my aim! Ie is a good racing debate snd thats whats it all about! I myst be a hood “outsider” as im ahead modt seasons! Ive been involved in a few gambles and can asdure you lumping £6k is not usual. The popular method is still loads of small bets in multiple shops and outlets.....NEVER by phine or on line....you may as well let of s klaxon! Aldo small stakes doubling and teebling up with a non runner to svoid suspicion. Most coups sre never revealed by bookies, the ones they talk about is pure publicity! I once hsd thr good fortune to meet J P st a hurling match in Co Mayo. I was with a friend Barry o Grady who owned a few horses snd knew JP well. We ssjed him sbout his betting ss several large gsmbles had been landed that season.....he laughed “jeez lads, i hsvent had a bet in 3 years except €20 euros here and there mainly on the dogs!”. He was genuine and Barry confirmed it. He said his empire was so big now that betting was pointless and Jonjo doesnt have a clue anyway (he was there laughing)! By the way he was a very nice guy. So forget midt of the farbage yiu hear from bookies and “insiders”.

Good debate though chaps and i fully respect everyones views on the AW. I wanted to provoke s debare and achieved it. Lobg may it continue!