BEST of the BETS

Bet #95 - 5:30 Galway - You Oughta Know @ 11/10

Not very confident despite this being a short price, main reason for that is the trainer also has the 2nd favourite Aurora Vega and there is not much between them in betting. Both were impressive winners on debut, but to me You Oughta Know's form looks stronger and that's why I went with him. Although none have placed from that race from 12 runs, those horses to have run were well behind the selection as he had them well strung out, the two placed horses are yet to run, they had gone off joint favourites in YOK's race, the 2nd was a Gigginstown newcomer and 3rd had placed on both previous runs including over hurdles but they were thrashed 11 & 17 lengths by the winner so it looks an impressive performance.

Patrick Mullins rode both him and Aurora Vega for their wins, so I am backing his judgement in choosing this one out of the two. There have been 13 similar situations where Willie Mullins had two runners in a bumper that had both won under Patrick last time, trainer won 9 of the 13 races and Patrick got it right 7 out of 9 times for LSP of +20.15.

Mullins has won the race 4 times from 16 runners, nothing impressive about that but it's 4 from 8 if they were favourite and had won their previous race, including 4 from last 5.

Race is not just about Mullins though, there are 4 other last time out winners including three 4 year olds. 4yo s have won the race 4 times in last 20 years but all those were when they used to get a bigger weight allowance, last two 4yo s to win were getting 6 lbs but today they are only getting 3 lbs so it makes things tough for them.