BEST of the BETS

No bet as the price has shortened from 5/1 last night to a best of 2/1 now, I don't feel it's worth risking at this price but will share my thoughts.

Weloof (8:30 Wolverhampton) - No bet

John Butler is a trainer that interests me, have had a bit of success backing his runners but also had some that ran stinkers after drifting in betting. Market confidence is often a good guide to this stable's runners. I am looking at the jockey angle with his runners to see if it's possible to predict if they will be trying.

Looking at Butler's last 100 winners going back to mid-October 2021, 21 of the winners were ridden by claiming jockeys at strike rate of 7.79% and A/E of 0.76 compared to 79 wins for non-claiming jockeys at better strike rate of 9.98% and A/E of 0.92. To make the comparison with another trainer in race who has had large enough number of runners in same period to make the comparison - Mick Appleby's strike rate with claiming and non-claiming jockeys is very similar at 12.07 & 12.38% respectively. So if Butler is not having as much success with claiming jockeys then could the claiming jockeys or running horses in apprentice races be in order to try and bring the handicap mark down? There isn't large enough sample to say anything conclusively, but looking at his results there is enough there to suggest it is a possibility. So what I am saying in a round about way is that Weloof's run in an apprentice race two runs ago was an attempt to get the handicap mark down, two of horse's last 3 wins came after his handicap mark was after having been ridden by an apprentice on previous run. But this time the handicapper left him on same mark despite a poor run in that race here last month.

He has eventually got the 2 lbs drop the trainer would have hoped for, after finishing 6/11 (beaten 3 1/4 lengths) in a stronger race here last time. Weloof's record when his handicap mark drops after he has been beaten less than 6 lengths in a race with higher average OR last time reads an impressive 121116. It's slightly worrying that the 6th was on the latest qualifying run and he is in veteran stages of his career now, and also he is possibly better over the Lingfield though he has won over this CD before.

Daniel Muscutt is yet to win on him in 3 runs, but is still a positive as he is most successful jockey for the stable over last two years and a bit with 21 winners at strike rate of 20.39% that improves to 13 from 37 with those that went off at 25% or shorter from the morning price. Jockey booking also appear to be a good indicator of market moves for this stable, from claiming jockeys-ridden runners only 21% shortened by 20% or more from morning price with 57% of runners drifting by 20% or more. In comparison, those ridden by Muscutt 41% shortened by 20% or more and 37% drifted by same percentage.

A long post considering I am not even betting, but that's because any possible value is gone now and not worth backing at such a short price.