BEST of the BETS

2:30 Beverley

Doing a bit of experiment with the draw, giving a number based on placed horses over c&d on same going and similar field size. Be careful with today’s as the sample size is very small with just 6 races, but it shows a strong bias for low draw from this limited sample size.

Expected = 2.55, Low = 3.72, Middle = 2.72, High = 1.02

So if my calculations are correct, then big advantage for low, middle is ok, but high is very poor.

On to the runners

Asdaa - 1 lb lower than last win, but all 3 wins in small fields, beaten 5+ lengths on last 4 runs, yet to race on ground this soft and high draw no help, so there are plenty of question marks.

Shawaamekh - 2 lbs higher than last win, but very consistent, has done especially well when ridden by this jockey (2 wins and 6 places from 8 runs), has won in class and on soft going. Did well from stall 12 at Chester last time to finish 3rd, but has been given a bad draw again in 11. If it wasn’t for the draw he would definitely be on my shortlist.

The Great Heir - non runner

Le Chiffre - easy c&d winner off 13 lbs lower, has won on soft, slight rise in class but has had only 6 runs so open to improvement. Big chance but price reflects that.

Amaysmont - slowly dropping down the ratings, but is yet to make the frame in 3 handicaps. Too soon to write him off but others are more consistent and have better draws.

Presidential - similar to Shawaamekh, this would have been on my shortlist but for the wide draw. 2 wins and 4 places from 9 runs on soft, close 2nd on only previous visit here but draw is a big negative.

Three Saints Bay - 2 from 2 here, and has a good draw, but has finished last or 2nd last on 5 of his last 6 runs. Difficult to recommend in current form. Trainer also runs the favourite Le Chiffre.

Zip - goes well in these conditions, and in good form, turned out quickly after finishing 2nd at Catterick on Tuesday. This is a stronger race but has advantage of a good draw.

True Blue Moon - I mentioned this is well handicapped before, and he continues to run well. This is a very competitive race though, and David Allan is not riding and draw (7) could have been better. I am leaving it today, but will kick myself if it wins.

Harrison Point - similar chance to his main betting rival Le Chiffre, 2 lbs up for his win last time and slight rise in class, but could still be progressing. Should be thereabouts.

Hayadh - won on reappearance here over a furlong further from 3 lbs higher mark, has won from higher marks than this before. Only 1 placing from 4 runs on soft, but two of those runs were at big prices. Well drawn in stall 1. I think it’s interesting that David Allan is riding this for Rebecca Bastiman despite Tim Easterby having a runner in the race. Allan’s record on the horse reads 132. I don’t think he can win with a couple of progressive horses in the race, but has place chances from a good draw.

Couple of improving 3yos in Le Chiffre and Harrison Point, hard to choose between them but at bigger prices I think ZIP also has a chance, and that’s the one I am having a small win bet on @ 6/1. And also a small place only bet on Hayadh at around 5.3 on exchange.

Good luck.