BEST of the BETS

Bet #137 - 2:55 Leopardstown - The Big Chap, 0.5 pt e/w @ 16/1

Price has tempted me on this one as it has drifted to almost double it's early price. It is a competitive enough race so not confident but I think he can run better than his current price. Won three times over hurdles (from marks of 95, 107 & 116) but the trainer has always talked about him being better over fences. His chase start didn't get off to great start as he unseated early in race at Sligo in September, but won his next two starts at Fairyhouse and Galway. Pulled up at Fairyhouse (Listed handicap chase) last time soon after he dropped to the back of field, but as a possible excuse he might have been affected by an early mistake which seemed to have resulted from another horse jumping right in front of him.

That race at Fairyhouse can often be used as a prep for this race. Since 2008, 25% (48 from 193) of all horses to have run in this race had run in that race on their last run, and although only 3 of them went on to win, this year's race doesn't look nearly as competitive as some of the previous runnings. As well as selection, two others come from that race this year - Path Doroux (8th) & The Folkes Tiara (9th). I do think The Folkes Tiara also has a good chance as he has CD form having finished 2nd in this race last year but his price of 9/2 looks too short now.

The Big Chap's handicap mark of 134 is difficult to judge, but trainer has talked highly of him in past and thinks Grand Annual at Cheltenham could be a possible target. And form of his two chase wins has worked out quite well. Among other winners to come from those races at least a couple suggest that his mark is ok, Captains Nephew who was 25+ lengths behind him at Fairyhouse has won a handicap chase off 111, and Pour Pavore who was 30+ lengths behind him at Galway won off 109, those two formlines suggest mark of 134 is warranted.

Shane Fitzgerald riding him for first time is not a problem, as selection's 5 wins to date have come with 5 different jockeys, 4 of these when jockey was riding him for first time.