BEST of the BETS

Bet #97 - 8:30 Roscommon - Pinky @ 7/2

Again not an easy decision, it never is. My options today were to back this one to win or back Jackson Lamb for a place, but with Mullins family having the top two in betting, and Can't Resist It also likely to place and another likely newcomer in race I felt it might be too congested for places so I might as well chance the win.

Willie Mullins has the newcomer Portcammon who is odds on, nephew Emmet has the 2nd fav Pinky who placed 3rd of 14 on her debut at Down Royal. That fillies bumper at Down Royal isn't normally the strongest, the winner usually runs in the bumper at Killarney's July meeting next and for last 3 years they had all finished 3rd at Killarney, this year's winner finished 2nd at Killarney although beaten 7 lengths which suggests this year's race at DR was of similar standard or perhaps slightly better.

So, Pinky's debut form isn't anything to get excited about, but I am working on the assumption that this is a weak race too despite having a hot favourite on debut from Willie Mullins. Willie has introduced 4 horses in past runnings of this race, all 4 were short prices like this one, 2 won, My Sister Sarah (who went on to rate in 140s and win up to Grade 2 level) and last year Idol who never ran again. Other two went on to rate in 120s & 130s over hurdles but were beaten at odds on in this race. So a bit of guesswork as to which bracket today's hotpot falls into. His dam was a 20-race maiden and finished her career rated in 40s, so if pedigree is anything then I don't think this one is going to be a star. He might not need to be, and trainer's horses can't be taken lightly but on balance I felt there may be value in taking him on.

Unlike my selection on Sunday, I don't think jockey bookings are significant in this race. Although Patrick Mullins often rides for Emmet too, he always rides for his dad when both trainers have runners in a race, and Derek O'Connor is not a bad jockey booking on Pinky. There have been 10 previous instances of Patrick/Willie Mullins Vs O'Connor/Emmet in a race and each combination won 3 races but value was with the latter as they had bigger prices and returned +8.25 LSP.

Pinky's dam was unraced but related to four winners on the flat, 3 of them rated in 80s & 90s, and a hurdles winner. Emmet Mullins has a good record of getting at least one win from a high percentage of his horses. Of his horses that were placed in a bumper on debut, only 10 raced more than once and out of these 10, 8 won at least one race, 4 of them on 2nd outing, 1 each on 3rd, 4th, 5th & 10th runs. With that record and the pedigree, I feel there is a good chance this one will win a race too whether it's a bumper or over hurdles.

Can't Resist It has a similar level of form but he was well backed for his debut 4th, so may not improve as much, think he has place chances.

Jackson Lamb was the other horse I had considered because his trainer John McConnell has a good record first time, but this one cost only €9,500 and doesn't look a likely winner and maybe playing for places.

Highway Jack (25/1 currently) could be the newcomer to watch in betting, he cost €35,000, his dam related to Champion hurdler Punjabi. Trainer can get bumper winners, including on debut, but not very often. When they do win, they tend to be near front end of market.