• AKD
    492
    Trying something new. Ratings are actually not too different from how I arrive at my shortlist for a race, but have added another column called confidence to see what difference it makes.

    4:20 Catterick

    Midnight Warrior....120....40%
    *Barney Bullet....105....80%
    *Escape Clause....105....80%
    Golden Grenade....94....60%
    Oliver’s Betty....94....60%
    Dorset Blue....78....53%
    Black Star Dancing....76....33%
    Caribeno....76....33%
    Cassidy Jo....76....33%
    Gloryella....67....27%
    Allsfineandandy....60....27%
    Quoteline Direct....59....33%
    Splash Of Verve....59....33%

    Explanation - 1st column is the rating which is arrived at using a combination of different factors which vary from race to race. 2nd column is the level of confidence I have in this rating, this depends on the amount of relevant data available for the horse. Ideally, I would want a horse to be top rated and also have highest confidence in it to be a strong selection. In today’s example, I have Midnight Warrior as top rated but confidence level is very low so he is unlikely winner. Similarly, horses that have a low rating and also low confidence % means they could easily run well above that rating, this is particularly true for those near the top of betting. It means favourite Caribeno would be very much on my short list despite a low rating.

    I am not backing anything yet, but if I was then Barney Bullet (6/1) and Escape Clause (10/1) would be the each way selections.
  • brian1147
    180
    can't think of a worst race to try and rate AKD, a class 6 on the turf, of your two I have
    BB 4th best on my tissue at 7.6, trading at 8.2 a short time ago would give it a bit of
    value, so good luck with the trial.
    As for me i've got 'black star dancing' as the fav. so that would be my EW.
    as catt is todays TTC I will probably be backing my selections any way.
    good luck today.
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Brian, good luck with your selections today.
  • cork
    66
    Good luck Brian
  • cork
    66
    Fancy Cassidy jo
  • AKD
    492
    The two highlighted as possible selections were only 5th & 6th, the favourite won very easily. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
  • brian1147
    180
    my choice was given a very strange ride, declared tomorrow for the 2.30 at hamilton with
    joe fanning on board, smells a bit fishy to me, have had some of the 14/1 just in case.
  • AKD
    492
    Non runner now, Brian. But maybe worth keeping an eye on. Dalgleish 11 from 116 (+28 LSP) next time after they were beaten 30+ lengths (flat & aw only), and 5 from 19 (+28 LSP) if they are also ridden by Fanning having had a different jockey on board the previous run. Also worth noting when he has Callum Rodriguez riding for him.
  • brian1147
    180
    cheers AKD useful to know.
  • AKD
    492
    4:45 Leopardstown

    I have picked probably one of the toughest races of the day, an 18 runner 45-65 handicap for 3 year olds. Normally it’s rare to have such low grade races at Leopardstown, but this isn’t a normal season and they have already run 4 of these 65 ceiling handicaps here this season and results have been interesting. 4 winners have returned at prices of 22/1, 20/1, 18/1 & 50/1, throw in a 100/1 2nd too, so these have been a real lottery. This is the first one that’s restricted to 3 year olds so maybe different, there is a worse race after this the 5:15. Probably do better by sticking a pin but here are the ratings for what they are worth.

    Jm Barrie....94....22%
    Sweet Justice....94....22%
    Tommy The Hat....94....22%
    Be Like The Bird....87....53%
    Take My Hand....86....46%
    Kodiac Prince....85....54%
    Porter Rockwell....85....54%
    Swift Sonnet....85....54%
    My Lucky Penny....85....61%
    Rotokura....85....61%
    Abbys Magic....84....57%
    Anjika....84....54%
    Power And Pace....84....54%
    Ranger Bob....83....50%
    Sansevero Chapel....83....50%
    Impetuous....82....54%
    Phillys Hope....82....54%
    Stellify....82....54%

    Favourite and 2nd favourite are joint top on my rating but with low confidence so are opposable in my view. Take My Hand and Sansevero Chapel would be tentative selections. But I am not backing anything yet as this is only an experiment - I will watch it for 10 races at least and only back after that if it seems to show a definite edge.
  • AKD
    492
    Two horses mentioned as possible selections finished 1st & 8th, winner returning at 5/1.
  • Kneeejerker
    192
    WD AKD :strong:
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks guys.

    7:05 Leicester

    Parker’s Boy....188....22%
    Bad Company....139....39%
    Blairlogie....107....39% (+?)
    Burguillos....102....39%
    Pettinger....99....33%
    Falacho....97....28%
    Axel Jacklin....90....44%
    Tony’s Rocket....81....28%
    Liam’s Lass....68....33%
    Parknacilla....57....22%
    Abushamah....30....11%

    Note - Blairlogie can possibly be rated higher, as one of the factors in my ratings for this race is trainer form. Channon has gone 20 runners without a winner, so not quite out of form yet but he has 8 runners today and you would normally expect him to get at least one winner from them. In last two years, he has run 8 or more horses on a day on 12 occasions and only twice he has drawn a blank. This is the last of his 8 runners today, and if he hasn’t had a winner by this time then maybe you could say he is out of form.

    On to the ratings, and low confidence overall for the race. Parker’s Boy at top but very low confidence, not impossible in race like this but unlikely. Liam’s Lass very low down on my ratings, not saying she can’t win but it looks tough. Burguillos likely to be thereabouts but short enough price to start with and now drifting. My two possible selections will be Bad Company and Axel Jacklin, who seems to have two ways of running, either he wins or finishes last. And if Channon is having a good day then it would be difficult to ignore Blairlogie. So a tricky race, Bad Company and Axel Jacklin two possibles, but not putting any money on them.
  • AKD
    492
    Two possibles yesterday finished last and 3rd last so no good, was correct about the favourites though.


    2:05 Tramore

    Thimbleweed....143....32%
    Le Boot Des Champs....136....50%
    Courting Vickie....114....41%
    Heidi’s Lady....114....41%
    Moonlight Glory....114....41%
    Aidacon....113....41%
    Cluain Dun....104....41%
    Donttellcatherine....104....41%
    Senorita Madore....84....27%
    Grinn....63....14%
    Moll Dote....62....14%
    Escort’namix....55....9%
    Millalee....20....5%

    First two in betting make up over 90% share of the market so the winner is expected to come from them but I am not convinced by either so it wouldn’t surprise me if there is an upset in this race. Escort’namix is 4/9, but Elliott’s record in maiden hurdles at Tramore is really quite poor, only 7 wins from 76 including 3 from 14 when favourite. Declan Queally has a better record here but Moll Dote is still a maiden after 17 runs (including 13 over hurdles and twice as favourite). I am a bit tempted to have a very small each way on Le Boot Des Champs (18/1), Peter Croke has only had 10 winners but 3 of those have been in maiden hurdles. Won a similar race here last year at 7/1, coincidently beating shorter priced runners from Elliott and Queally on that occasion, that one had benefit of experience though. Trainers record when debuting over hurdles is 0 from 5, but got placed with the only one of those (14/1) that was shorter than 50/1. I would be more confident if she had had a run though as not easy winning these first time. Aidacon (28/1) is another possible, she showed some ability first time before disappointing next time, needs to improve. So, Le Boot Des Champs & Aidacon two each way possibles in my opinion.
  • AKD
    492
    Got that wrong as the top two pulled miles clear of the rest, must be a very poor race, two horses mentioned as big price possibles only 6th and 12th. Was right about Elliott though as the hotpot got turned over.
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