BEST of the BETS

This is what happens when you are going through a bad run. King Ragnar went as low as 1.09 in running but still managed to lose. Place price (1.66). 11 losers in a row now.

LSP: -1.84 (win), -3.22 (place)

Here’s today’s loser.

2:05 Wolverhampton - favourite Qaaraat usually runs well but his win rate is very poor, just 2 wins from 45 (placed 11 times) including 0 from 9 (placed 4 times) here, all the Wolverhampton runs were over 5f so he is at least trying something new today, and Cam Hardie has a very good record on favourites, but still price of 5/4 for a horse that doesn’t win often is too short for me. Antony Brittain also has the 2nd fav One One Seven, he has won here before but not in a handicap, went close off same mark in handicap here in September 2019 but been well beaten twice since then off similar marks, and trainer rarely wins with his 2nd strings. My selection is the next horse in betting PUSHKIN MUSEUM (7/2), who is bit of a specialist over this c&d, his last 5 wins (from 19 runs over c&d) have come over c&d from ratings of 58, 60, 60, 60 & 54 (latest first), runs off 56 today. In fact he has only been beaten once over c&d when rated 60 or under, and that was when he was a 28/1 shot returning from a break. Last of his wins was in November 2018, and he is a 9 year old now, so that’s the one question mark as at this type of age sometimes they have just had enough, I hope that’s not the case. Surprisingly, Adam Kirby has not ridden him very often, record of 3513 from the 4 times he has been on board.

Jeans Maite is bit of an unknown, with just 5 runs all at big prices, and all but one of those runs at Southwell, she showed improved form on handicap debut to be 4th at 50/1 so I wouldn’t completely rule her out, but up against 6 course winners here won’t be easy.

Selection - Pushkin Museum @ 7/2

Good luck.

Drifted to 8/1, and unplaced (5th)

LSP: -2.84 (win), -4.22 (place)

2:30 Roscommon - SECRET WIZARD (18/1) hasn’t won since March 2019, but is now 13 lbs lower than that win, and none of the others have been winning recently either - total of just 2 wins within last year between them. Finished down the field at Leopardstown a week ago on first run after the break from a wide draw. Not sure about jockey as he has only had 2 winners from 90 odd rides, but at least he is taking 10 lbs off. Only 3rd run since joining new trainer, and looks well handicapped on old form so could run well.

Selection - Secret Wizard @ 18/1 (4 places)

Good luck.

LSP: -3.84 (win), -5.22 (place)

Losing run at 13 now.

7:25 Kempton - MASKED IDENTITY (7/1) twice went close from higher marks on turf last season. Well beaten on 3 runs on all weather, including twice here, but all were in better class. He is 7 lbs lower than first of those runs, and this looks weak for a class 4 with a top rating of only 78. He is relatively unexposed so wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run better than recent efforts. Trainer is 9 from 43 (+22 LSP) in handicaps here, 8 from 19 (+31 LSP) when priced under 10/1.

Selection - Masked Identity @ 7/1

Good luck.

Another one that should have won (went 1.14 in running), but didn’t, losing run up to 14 now. Place odds 2.02

LSP: -4.84 (win), -4.25 (place)

7:25 Windsor - TELL WILLIAM (11/2) won at Bath last August, and has run ok in two runs in better class since then, 2nd at Bath and 4th at Newbury on his return (6th horse from Newbury race has won since then). I think he should run well today dropping back down to class 5, and although still 7 lbs higher than his win last year he could improve as he is only a 4 year old.

Selection - Tell William @ 11/2 (4 places)

Good luck.

4th.

LSP: -5.84 (win), -5.25 (place)

15 days without a winner now, frustrating thing is in most of the races winner is coming from my shortlist, it’s my final judgement from those 3-4 horses that’s letting me down, so trying to make changes to how I make my final choice. I will give it another week to see how it goes.

7:40 Bath

Possibles - Il Sicario, Princess Way, Test Valley, Waters Edge

I have gone with IL SICARIO (10/1), ex-Johnston horse, 0 from 12 (placed 5 times) on flat since joining Bill Turner, but to be fair only once or twice he has gone off at a single figure price. He has made his seasonal return over this c&d for last two seasons, finishing 2nd of 5 @ 14/1 (beaten 2 1/2 lengths) from mark of 70 two years ago, and last year finishing 3rd of 8 @ 25/1 (beaten 2 lengths) from mark of 66. Rated 63 now, he looks on a reasonable mark and will hopefully run well again first time. Also maybe interesting that this is the first time since joining Turner that he is not being ridden by an apprentice. Ryan Tate takes the ride today, he has 1 winner (@ 7/2 backed from 8/1) from 14 rides (5 others placed) for Turner, placed on both rides for trainer on Tuesday at prices of 80/1 & 10/1.

Selection - Il Sicario @ 10/1

Good luck.

Unplaced.

LSP: -6.84 (win), -6.25 (place)

Here’s the one to avoid today

3:25 Doncaster - poor race, taken a chance on DANCING SPEED (7/1) in this. Still a maiden after 13 runs (only 2 places), one of those placings was last time on first run for Liam Bailey, finishing 3rd @ 16/1. Has dropped another 2 lbs so looks on a good mark. I think jockey booking is interesting, Tudhope has a good record at Doncaster, showing a level stakes profit for 7 out of last 8 seasons here, 0 from 8 (4 placed) so far this season. Trainer/jockey combination is 6 from 22 (3 others placed) with LSP of +16.50. I have one question mark about the step up to a mile as he has often weakened late on in his races in past, had a wind surgery before leaving his previous trainer, hopefully that would have helped. Spark Of War is another that could run well, 0-19 but on a low enough mark like the selection, and he stays further.

Selection - Dancing Speed @ 7/1

Good luck.

Unplaced again.

LSP: -7.84 (win), -7.25 (place)

5:15 Curragh

Very competitive 3yo handicap, it’s tough to even get it to a shortlist as more than half the field has some sort of chance.

Shortlist - Elusive King, Flaming Moon, Latin Five, The King Of Kells, Never Before, Dark Vader

I have backed LATIN FIVE (11/1), one of 7 distance winners in the field, he scored that win in a nursery by 2 lengths over this c&d from 6 lbs lower mark than today, before finishing a respectable 3rd in the Birdcatcher at Naas. Reappearance run was disappointing over 7 here two weeks ago, finishing down the field, went off at 50/1 from 18/1, market more positive today, has gone from 25/1 into 11/1 so hopefully he will improve from last run as he needs to. Declan McDonogh rides for first time, he is 5 from 33 (+6.2 LSP) in handicaps for Joseph O’Brien over the past year.

Selection - Latin Five @ 11/1 (5 places)

Good luck.

Good luck AKD

Thanks Doubler.

Losing run continues and stands at 18 now, it seems like it will never end.

LSP: -8.84 (win), -8.25 (place)

12:45 Windsor - Rideson sets a good standard, but has finished 2nd five times including 4 times as favourite so I am taking her on. KAFEE finished midfield on her debut in a Newbury maiden in autumn (6 winners have come from the race), and improved when finishing 3rd at Wolverhampton last time. Dam half sister to useful miler Temptress (finished 2nd in Royal Hunt Cup) so I think step up to a mile will suit. Andrew Balding has a very good record in maidens on 3rd start, 18% strike rate 3rd time (107 from 596, +40 LSP), it improves to 36% (53 from 149, +57 LSP) if they were placed on their previous run.

Selection - Kafee @ 6/1

Good luck.

I haven’t been more pleased to see a horse win, Kafee has ended one of my longest losing runs ever. Betfair SPs 9.88 win, 2.0 place.

It hasn’t yet made up for my poor results over last two and half weeks, but hopefully won’t have to wait too long for another winner.

LSP: -0.40 (win), -7.30 (place)

:cheer:

Nice 1 AKD :strong:

:up: :up:

:cheer:

Nice one AKD :clap: :clap:

well done AKD we all get bad runs hope yours is over keep posting its appreciated

Thanks everyone.

5:00 Thirsk - Sambucca Spirit is in good form, and it will be surprising if he is not in first 3 but he is not really an each way price. In a race like this I want an each way option, so have backed YOU’RE COOL, 10 times winner on the all weather but 0-23 on turf (placed 6 times including twice at 25/1) so it’s a bit of long shot but he is 20 lbs lower than his AW mark. I like to research if the trainer has done something similar in past, and I found one that has similarities - last year Derek Shaw ran Hammer Gun, who had been an all weather specialist till then, at Doncaster 3 days after he had been well beaten on all weather and took advantage of 18 lbs lower turf mark as the horse won after being backed from 22/1 down to 8/1. This is selection’s 4th run since joining Shaw from the now retired John Balding, ran ok on first two runs but tailed off at Kempton last time so that’s a bit of question mark. Shaw does particularly well with horses he gets from other trainers on their 4th run - strike rate of 9.03% (13 from 144) on 4th run compared to 4.84% on 1st, 2.89% on 2nd, 4.97% on 3rd runs. Splitting the runners by price on 4th run it’s 13 from 78 (+44 LSP) if priced under 20/1, 0 from 66 if priced 20/1 or over, so market is clearly important. Small move so far today to 14/1 from 20/1, but Bet365 is still 18/1. Not a confident bet because of the poor run last time, but hopefully he can bounce back to form as this is not a strong race.

Selection - You’re Cool @ 14/1

Good luck.