BEST of the BETS

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Thanks guys.

5:00 Dundalk - MYRCELLA is the only one in this field having her first run of season, which in this case also means she is the only one yet to race at Dundalk, but she did pretty well on turf last year, placing on 3 of her 8 starts including in a maiden at 50/1 (only time she was ridden by this jockey), and her dam ran well here a couple of times in handicaps finishing a close 5th & 3rd, so I don’t think surface will be a problem. You have to keep in mind that this is a very small stable and they don’t get many winners, they have only had 4 wins (from 178 runs) in last 10 years, 2 of those 4 wins were by this filly’s dam (off marks in low 70s). Dam got better with experience and won at up to 2 miles, but her offspring have done most of their winning around 6/7f so distance should be ok. Only question is whether she has trained on or not and if she is ready first time, you can never be sure of that, maybe market can be a guide but she is drifting at the moment out to 16/1. She has the form though and if she has improved from 2 to 3, she could go close.

Selection - Myrcella @ 16/1 (4 places on offer with some bookies)

Good luck.

Badly outpaced at back, but stayed on very nicely to finish a close 3rd. Encouraging first effort, I am happy with a place (paid 5.6 on Betfair), she clearly wants further now, which isn’t surprising given her dam’s record.

LSP: +1.18 (win), -0.29 (place)

2:10 Thurles - it’s hard to find any faults with MARY FRANCES, she won well at Punchestown last month and from a rating of 134 here she looks the one to beat. Rising conditional jockey Eoin Walsh, who recently won the Leinster National, is good value and is riding for trainer for only the 2nd time (unplaced on 1st ride but was on outsider). Martin Hassett has a good record here this time of year, won with 3 of the 4 runners at Thurles in March (20/1, 3/1 & 5/1) including with this horse. Main betting rival Jetz, although rated higher over fences, doesn’t win often enough and has never won beyond 2 and half miles. There are no certainties of course, but 2/1 for Mary Frances looks good value to me.

Selection - Mary Frances @ 2/1

Good luck.

Shortened to 6/5, but only 2nd.

LSP: +0.18 (win), +0.01 (place)

2:40 Downpatrick - very open handicap hurdle, I can give a chance to about 8 or 10 of these. Decided on CAPPUCCINO MAN in the end, he is on same mark as when unseating in this race last year, he was sent off 9/2 2nd fav on that occasion but is a much bigger price today. His only win so far has come at this track, in a maiden hurdle over a couple of furlongs further. Bit of a question mark about fitness as he hasn’t run for nearly 5 months, but trainer has an excellent record here. He has had only 10 runners at Downpatrick, 4 of them won (4 different horses, 18/1, 16/1, 11/4 & 5/2) and 3 placed (12/1, 10/1 & 5/1), 2 of the placed horses were returning after a similar absence. Not expecting a lot, will be happy if he can finish in first 4.

Selection - Cappucino Man @ 16/1 (most bookies offering 4 places)

Good luck.

Seemed to be going ok for some way but then dropped out very quickly, finishing a well beaten 9th.

LSP: -0.82 (win), -0.99 (place)

2:30 Naas - KNIGHT OF MALTA showed enough promise on debut when finishing 5 lengths 4th (16/1) over this c&d in autumn. He is out of Oaks winner Was, so a nice pedigree and should be able to win a maiden like this if fit enough. Aidan O’Brien’s 3 previous runners in this race have finished 1st (7/1), 2nd (7/2), 4th (9/4). At bigger prices, Getawiggleon could run well and has place chances.

Selection - Knight Of Malta @ 15/8

Good luck.

Finished 3rd, clearly needed the run as the betting also suggested, will do better next time. I would have been better off backing Getawiggleon each way, but that’s how it goes.

LSP: -1.82 (win), -0.13 (place)

2:30 Clonmel - for a maiden hurdle, this looks very open and there are a few possibles. I have backed ELUSIVE STAR, who had run well when 4th of 18 (50/1) on hurdling debut in better race than this at Punchestown in February last year. Well beaten 4th in a bumper last time, but he would have needed the run after over a year off, and market is very positive about him today. Michael Hourigan’s record with horses priced in single figures in maiden hurdles is very good, 59 winners from 264 (+16 LSP). I also considered Immortality, but she is very weak in betting. Any of the first 4-5 in betting have chances, but Elusive Star looks the best to me.

Selection - Elusive Star @ 7/2

Good luck.

Good luck AKD, willhill going 9/2 at the moment as part of the happy hour promotion.

Thanks, Doubler.

Very poor run to finish. There is not going to be any racing for some time, but there are more important things right now. Hopefully, we will pick things up again once this is over. Take care of yourselves and your families. Stay safe.

LSP: -2.82 (win), -1.13 (place)

You and your family stay safe too AKD

Thanks KJ.

Lost a bit of discipline since the restart, so bringing back this thread to try and stick to one bet a day.

Woodlands Stakes (Listed) - 5:35 Naas - Sceptical has improved with every run and bolted up in a handicap from mark of 101 last time, and is being talked up as a potential Group 1 horse. Impressive as he has been, he is yet to race away from Dundalk, so I am not taking a short price as he still has to prove himself on turf. SERGEI PROKOFIEV is not the most consistent but is proven at this level with one Group 3 and two Listed wins to his name. Won first time out last season, also at 5 and half furlongs, and I think he should run well today too. Buffer Zone is another one that goes well fresh having won first time out for last two seasons, he won a couple of big handicaps at Curragh last season and he was next on my short list. Forever In Dreams is another with good form having run above expectation in couple of Group 1s last season. So in conclusion, it looks a good race but at the prices Sergei Prokofiev is my choice, hopefully he will run well.

Selection - Sergei Prokofiev @ 6/1

Good luck.

Very disappointing. Favourite won very impressively again despite the big drift.

LSP: -3.82 (win), -2.13 (place)

Derrinstown Derby Trial (Group 3) - 2:00 Leopardstown - probably the weakest renewal of this race in recent years, none of these have won a stakes race yet and a top rating of just 106, Iberia’s 2nd in Killavullan Stakes (Group 3) probably the best form on offer. He should improve for step up in trip and is one of the possibles. The favourite Russian Emperor is the only one with a run this season, he won a maiden at Naas, it was bit of a bunch finish and the 4th horse was only rated 75 so the form is nothing special in context of this race. He was very weak in betting though drifting from evens out to 2/1 which suggests he would have needed the run and should improve from it, but I still can’t back it at 11/8 today. Instead I have taken a chance on outsider of the 3 Aidan O’Brien runners, CORMORANT (11/1). He is only rated 95, so does need to improve but this is not the strongest Group 3. He is the only one of these to have won on good to firm (over 1 mile, narrowly beating Agitare), and the only one to have run over this far (finishing 2nd behind a stablemate that was odds on). He is the outsider of the field so not expecting much, but going and distance should suit.

Selection - Cormorant @ 11/1

Good luck.

Great insight!

Thanks, Swerver. Nice to get a good priced winner, Cormorant just kept finding enough to see off the favourite. 14.66 win, 4.74 place

LSP: +9.16 (win), +1.42 (place)

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Well Done AKD

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