8 of last 10 winners had previously won at the track, so that’s a strong stat in favour of the favourite and he has beaten one of his main rivals Ete Indien before, price is short enough though. I had a very small each way on Candy Tycoon @ 66/1 just for a bit of interest. He shouldn’t be good enough to win as he got thrashed by Ete Indien last time, but he has won here before and Todd Pletcher has won 4 of the last 6 runnings of this.
I do like the fav, he has some tactical speed but his strength is his finishing burst. Id be shocked if Ete Indien reversed the form with him being drawn 12 and is normally a front runner. I think Independence Hall has a realistic chance and 4/1 might be a bit too big. I think Franco will let IH go on and track him all the way before kicking on up the straight. The only danger I see to the fav is getting in behind too many horses as there are quite a few that like to get on with it.