BEST of the BETS

Another rubbish selection yesterday.

LSP: -24.84 (win), -16.77 (place)

5:00 Lingfield - Fortune Finder seems well fancied on debut, but I have backed another newcomer PALE KING. Related to several winners including Dinner’s Out who was placed at Listed level (10 furlongs) on the all weather in France. Should handle the surface, not sure about distance but hopefully he will stay. David Simcock usually has them ready first time, his strike rate on debuts is 8.8% but goes up to 19.6% when ridden by Jamie Spencer (18 from 92, +18 LSP). Similarly, at Lingfield it’s 5 from 57 (-23 LSP) on debut but 3 from 8 (3 others placed), +17 LSP when they are ridden by Spencer.

Selection - Pale King @ 14/1

Good luck.

It’s been a miserable couple of months with my betting, but when they win like this, that’s what keeps you going. Cheeky win, lost count of how many times Spencer looked behind.

LSP: -2.04 (win), -13.64 (place)

Well Done AKD

Well done mate

:cheer:

:smile: :cheer:

:clap: :party:

Thanks everyone.

3:45 Newcastle - not easy to oppose Ladronne who won by a wide margin at Southwell 6 days ago, but at bigger price I have backed RATH AN IUIR based mainly on his c&d win in a novice hurdle in December. He beat the penalised Orrisdale (now rated 122) by 5 lengths, literal reading of that form suggests selection needs to improve 2-3 lbs on that effort but after just 3 runs that is not impossible. Ran well last time when a close 2nd (probably would have finished 3rd if the leader didn’t run out) at Doncaster last time with 22 lengths back to next horse so form looks solid enough. Rose Dobbin’s record here in handicaps isn’t good though, just 1 win (6 placed) from 37 in handicap hurdles, compare that to 4 from 31 in novice hurdles. I have doubts because of that, but taking a chance due to c&d form, hopefully he will run well.

Selection - Rath An Iuir @ 13/2

Good luck.

2nd, but did better than the favourite.

LSP: -3.04 (win), -11.83 (place)

1:40 Limerick - Great Bear was beaten only 3 lengths by Triumph winner Burning Victory on debut, so really should be up to winning a weak race like this, but I am still not backing it at 2/5. 2nd fav Cafe Con Leche is only rated 113 but has to give weight away so I don’t fancy him. Marvel Fan makes her Irish debut for Tony Martin, she had lots of hurdling experience in France, her form there isn’t anything special but keep an eye on betting, 5/1 currently, if she shortens to 4/1 or under I would expect a good run and she might even win. I have done a small bet on one at bigger price, BLACKJACK BOY. Eric McNamara does occasionally get big priced winners on debut, and this one has a nice pedigree, related to couple of bumper winners and dam unraced half sister to Back In Front (Grade 1 winner at Cheltenham & Punchestown festivals). Not expecting anything as he will need to be pretty good to win if the favourite runs to form of his last run, but hopefully run well.

Selection - Blackjack Boy @ 20/1

Good luck.

Well, I was wrong about the winner, but at least my one placed 3rd @ 33/1, so happy enough with that effort.

LSP: -4.04 (win), -7.08 (place)

:cheer:

Thanks Peregrine.

2:40 Kelso - only 3 runners but an interesting novice handicap chase, and I have backed the outsider of the 3, KALAHARRY. It won’t be easy as he is making his chasing debut against a couple that have already done well over fences, but he has run well in higher class over hurdles. Alistair Whillans can get winners when debuting chasers in a handicap, 2 from 18 (+7.50 LSP), and he has already had his best jumps season with 15 winners from 94 with impressive LSP of +44. Other two trainers in race are also having good seasons, and Sandy Thompson’s are in great form with 6 winners and couple of 2nds from their last 10 runners, but I think that has been factored into price of their runner as to me it looks too short at 4/6. Manetti also has a chance in this if he can improve his jumping, was disappointing on previous run at this track and that is what stopped me from backing him but that was over 2 mile 1 furlong, this longer trip and small field should mean he will have more time with his jumping so I wouldn’t rule him out either.

Selection - Kalaharry @ 7/2

Good luck.

Well done AKD, back on track. Good luck today.

Thanks Doubler.

Kalaharry jumped and ran well enough (touched a low of 1.70 in running), but the favourite just kept finding a bit more. Thomson stable couldn’t be in better form, and that’s probably what made the difference. Pair well clear of Manetti, who really struggled with his jumping again, fences at Kelso are not easy so he probably should be avoided unless running at courses with easier fences.

LSP: -5.04 (win), -7.08 (place)

2:00 Wetherby - OCEANUS has been a bit disappointing with only one placing from 5 (well beaten on other runs) this season, but he has dropped to a low enough mark now (rated 85 now after starting handicaps on 97) and this is a very weak race. Has won on soft and also placed (33/1) in a juvenile hurdle, so I don’t think going is a problem. Dianne Sayer’s record here, especially in handicap hurdles (7 from 53, +7.50 LSP in hc hurdles), is pretty good. One possible worry is the 4 month absence, as trainer’s record after a break is not good - 3.35% strike rate with horses running after a break of 60 days or more compared to 11% when she runs them within 60 days. But this one is still lightly raced, so open to improvement, and is on a low enough mark so I think he can run well. Market could be a good guide regarding fitness.

Selection - Oceanus @ 11/2

Good luck.

Won @ 6/1

LSP: +2.18 (win), -4.66 (place)

Well done AKD

:cheer: :cheer: