BEST of the BETS

Ran ok, but only 2nd so it’s another loss. Good price for the place (3.51) on exchange though, big difference from what it would have paid at each way odds.

LSP: -17.97 (win), -11.23 (place)

6:00 Dundalk - unusual runner with Archie Watson sending one here, PERCY PROSECCO. Watson’s record in Ireland is not great with just 1 winner from 21 but almost all those runners have been in Listed or Group races, rare to see him send one over for a race with small prize money like this one. His record here at Dundalk is 2 placers (20/1 & 8/1) from 5 runners, but a couple of others at shorter prices were unplaced so bit of a mixed bag. This doesn’t look the strongest race as most of these have found winning difficult in recent times. Selection’s last run doesn’t look bad with a 5th of 13 (beaten 4 lengths) over 14 furlongs at Wolverhampton, both that run and earlier win over same distance he was staying on at end to suggest he will be suited by 2 miles. I hope I will have better luck than the last time I backed this horse, when it got beaten after going long odds on in running.

Selection - Percy Prosecco @ 12/1 (4 places on offer from Betfair and few others)

Good luck.

Finished only 8th. Backed down to 7/1 but strange drift on exchange just before the off, drifted from 8.2 to around 15-16 from going into the stalls to the off. That’s not an excuse for disappointing run, just an observation.

LSP: -18.97 (win), -12.23 (place)

3:22 Kelso - KAUTO RIKO hasn’t won since December 2018 when winning a handicap chase off 137 at Haydock on heavy going, but he has had only 4 runs since then. Disappointing at Kempton last time but had run a blinder the time before when a close 2nd @ 100/1 in Peterborough Chase. Stepping up to this trip for first time, but I think he could improve for it, and return of Brian Hughes, who has been on board for selection’s last 4 wins (4 wins from 7 times he has ridden), is a positive too. Only the poor run last time is a negative. Top rated horses have a poor record in this race, only 2 wins from 11, 5 of the beaten top rated horses went off at odds on, that’s not to say the favourite can’t win today. But with the top 2 carrying penalties means that my selection is only 3 lbs behind the favourite and 1 lb ahead of the Nicholls’ horse, so should have every chance.

Selection - Kauto Riko @ 4/1

Good luck.

Favourite wins, selection 2nd.

LSP: -19.97 (win), -11.00 (place)

Last two months have been poor for me, hopefully March will be different. But starting with a short priced one so have to be careful.

5:30 Huntingdon - FORTUNATE FRED is related to a bumper winner, who also won over hurdles from a mark of 122. If selection is of similar ability then he should be capable of winning this. Ran well on debut over c&d when 3rd @ 16/1 (beaten 10 lengths), and may not need to improve a great deal. Jamie Snowden is 9 from 18 (+5 LSP) when he has the favourite in bumpers, improves to 9 from 13 if you exclude those making their debut. 2nd favourite is a newcomer from David Pipe, who has good record in bumpers overall, but is 0 from 6 (5 of them priced in single figures, 3 under 5/1, but none even placed) in them here at Huntingdon, so I am trying George Of Naunton for the forecast spot.

Selection - Fortunate Fred @ 11/10

Good luck.

Only 3rd behind the impressive winner. Market completely turned around as winner was heavily backed into favouritism with my one drifting.

I think the only way I will get one of my selections to win at the moment is if I start laying them lol.

LSP: -20.97 (win), -10.84 (place)

Your selection are ok AKD its this board its jinxed :sad:

Haha KJ, maybe.

7:45 Wolverhampton - its a very long shot, but I am hoping LILI WEN FACH will run better than last time. Finished last of 8 (beaten 9 lengths) last time on first run since joining Richard Price, was 7 lengths behind Lakeview last time and is 3 lbs better off today which may see her get a little closer. Trainer does occasionally get big priced winners, and is 4 from 34 (+1 LSP) on all the weather on 2nd run compared to 1 from 34 on first run. His last such winner was in April 2019, Medici Moon who was beaten 12 lengths on first run for trainer but won next time here at 20/1 (coincidentally from same rating as the selection). Booking of Hollie Doyle maybe a positive too, she is 3 from 26 (+24 LSP) for the trainer overall but 0 from 11 here.

Really not expecting anything, she is 80/1 for a reason and could easily finish last again, but there are one or two pieces of form from last season that make her look on a good mark.

Selection - Lili Wen Fach @ 80/1 (Bet365, others are only 50/1), 45/1 5 places with Bet365

Good luck.

Was up with the pace till a furlong to go, but weakened to finish last but one.

LSP: -21.97 (win), -11.84 (place)

5:15 Kempton - Star Of Bengal is proven in class but was disappointing when last seen 5 months ago, and is up against a couple of progressive horses. Luckys Dream has won his last 3 at the distance at Chelmsford and Newcastle, he could improve again but is stepping up from class 4 to class 2. I prefer HOME BEFORE DUSK, who has won 4 of his last 7, he is also up in class but it’s not as big a jump as LD. He is also a course winner (last time), most of his wins have come over a mile but has won at this distance before so I don’t think it will be a problem.

Selection - Home Before Dusk @ 9/4

Good luck.

Unplaced.

LSP: -22.97 (win), -12.84 (place)

Today’s selection

8:30 Wolverhampton - Sepahi @ 7/1

Short of time so not giving detailed reasoning. But interesting that it has been very well backed, first run for Shaun Keighley, and Josephine Gordon rides who has a very good record for trainer. Dropping back 2 furlongs but has won on only previous try at minimum distance. It looks a competitive race though despite being a class 6.

Good luck.

Never nearer 6th.

LSP: -23.97 (win), -13.84 (place)

3:55 Wolverhampton - Ventura Bounty and Godfather both recorded easy wins in novice company last time, but MOUNT MOGAN brings the strongest handicap form having finished a close 2nd behind one completing a hat trick with 2 lengths back to 3rd, that looks very strong form. Before that he had beaten Godfather by 5 lengths on same terms over 6 furlongs here, yet the latter is shorter price today. That could be due to extra furlong as Godfather has proved himself over 7 furlongs but there is a bit of doubt about the selection’s stamina looking at the pedigree as in immediate family on dam side there are no winners at further than 6 furlongs, he really will need to stay as this looks like it’s going to be true run as a quite a few of these like to make the running. Ed Walker has a good record when stepping them up to 7 furlongs for first time though (9 from 56, +24 LSP). Walker also has an excellent record at Wolverhampton, 10 from 38 (+8.63) here over past year.

Selection - Mount Mogan @ 4/1

Good luck.

Just noticed, Walker has already had a winner at 12/1, grrrr didn’t back it.

Just out of places in 4th.

LSP: -24.97 (win), -14.84 (place)

Here’s today’s loser

5:00 Southwell - DUBLIN FOUR, with a top rating of 118, sets a good standard in this maiden hurdle, 3 lbs clear of his main rival so I am a bit surprised he is not favourite. Graeme McPherson has a 19.77% strike rate here (17 from 86, +76 LSP), which is double of his overall SR of 9.9%, had a 20/1 winner on the flat here last week (Londonia, who runs again today in 5:30 race). Selection has run ok in 3 handicap hurdles and now drops in class. McPherson is 4 from 6 (won with last 4 at prices of 2/1, 3/1, 6/4 & 13/8) when he drops them into maiden company after running in handicap hurdles, this looks a significant stat when you consider that he has had a total of just 8 wins (from 99 runs) in maiden hurdles. Fame And Hope, who finished 2nd on her only start in point to points, could run better than her price of 16/1 here.

Selection - Dublin Four @ 2/1

Good luck.

Very easy winner despite drifting to 3/1. Good run from Fame And Hope too, finishing 3rd.

LSP: -21.84 (win), -13.77 (place)

Thankx AKD nice drift as Well

:cheer:

Nice 1 AKD

Well done A :victory:

Thanks everyone.

5:05 Stratford - favourite looks strong, but I have taken a chance on ex-Gigginstown horse SOUL KALIBER here. Record of 0 from 16 (1 placing) under rules, but in those runs he clearly did better when the going was soft or heavy, and his sire Marienbard’s all 6 winners (from 39 runners) since December 2018 have come in testing conditions (0 from 34 on drier going), so I think he will at least be suited by the going, favourite also likes these conditions but some of the others may not. Darren Edwards, along with Zac Baker, is one of the most experienced amateur riders, and in hunter chases he has ridden more winners than the rest of jockeys in this race put together. Selection won 5 times in point to points last year, and possibly needed the run when only 6th on his return last time (in January). All in all, he looks a good each way bet to me at the price.

Selection - Soul Kaliber @ 12/1

Good luck.

Pulled up.

LSP: -22.84 (win), -14.77 (place)

3:05 Huntingdon - Shadows Girl @ 10/1

Good luck.

Unplaced

LSP: -23.84 (win), -15.77 (place)

2:25 Doncaster - OPERATIC EXPORT was just about best of these on the flat, having been placed from a mark of 75. Made her hurdling debut in a Listed race at Aintree, finishing 5th of 14 (beaten 26 lengths), disappointing next time when last as 2/1 2nd fav in race won by Mick Pastor (10th in the Fred Winter yesterday) but may have been affected by being hampered early in the race. Did much better at same track last month when 2nd @ 25/1. Had two of these, Gilka & Tronada, behind her that day and I see no reason why she can’t finish ahead of them again. Gilka was only a neck behind and it being her first run over hurdles she might improve but Skelton usually has them ready so not sure how much improvement can be expected 2nd time. Champagne Terri could run well if fit after a break, and at bigger prices Cherry Cola is an interesting runner - rare runner for Sheena West at Doncaster (she also has one in 5:05 race), she has sent only two in last 17 years, both finished 2nd at 7/1 & 10/1, she is a winner on flat off 65 and can’t be ruled out if she takes well to jumping, but might not be easy against those with hurdling experience so I have picked Tronada for the forecast spot.

Selection - Operatic Export @ 4/1

Good luck.