BEST of the BETS

Nice winner buddy :clap: :clap:

Thanks KJ, Fuzzy

5:02 Doncaster - not easy opposing a horse that won by 20+ lengths on debut but heavy going can exaggerate distances and this race has more depth in it, so while Adrimel may win again I don’t think it will be as easy this time. I have taken him on with THE EDGAR WALLACE, who also ran well on debut when finishing a close 3rd at Exeter, I feel he may be better suited by going left handed today. That probably wasn’t a bad race, the 4th horse has gone and won next time @ 16/1 (a rare bumper winner for Jimmy Frost). Kim Bailey has a fair record in this race - 8/1 3rd of 16, 18/1 unplaced, 9/4 winner (2 years ago) & 11/4 3rd of 7. Bailey also has a very good record 2nd time out in bumpers, 9 wins from 20 (+22 LSP) 2nd time with horses that were beaten under 4 lengths on debut. I am hoping he will improve enough to give the favourite a race at least.

This maybe a good race, and few newcomers I will be watching for future. Tom George has previously introduced Black Op (Grade 1 winner won this race) and Some Buckle (3rd in this race, won class 2 handicap) in this race, so Slap Dash Harry maybe worth watching though betting doesn’t suggest much is expected of him today. Other newcomers to watch, Ballybegg (trainer very good in bumpers), Roussimoff (nice staying pedigree), Brinkhill (nothing expected on debut especially against geldings, but trainer very good 2nd time so will be interesting if she shows promise today).

Selection - The Edgar Wallace @ 3/1

Good luck.

Gave it a good go, trading as short as 1.27 in running, no complaints just got beaten by a good horse, pair miles clear of the rest.

LSP: -14.03 (win), -10.69 (place)

4:41 Huntingdon - risky selection as I am going against the two last time out winners by backing the outsider of four LITTLE LIGHT. She is not the most consistent but enjoys these conditions and may still have some improvement after just 4 runs for her new stable, she won one of those 4 races at Leicester but has been disappointing on other 3 runs, including when beaten 50 lengths here in November which is the biggest negative for me. That was over 2 and half miles, and also before she had the wind operation, so I am hoping that will make the difference. Lucy Wadham does very well this time of year, and could just be coming into form after a winner in past week. She runs two today, this one and Miss Heritage in 4:11 race (I am having a little bet on that one too) and I think there is a good chance she will get one winner today. Ibleo for in-form Venetia Williams is a big danger.

Selection - Little Light @ 5/1

Good luck.

Wow, Miss Heritage couldn’t have won it any more easily, very well backed too, so maybe that’s the one they wanted today. Hoping they can do a double but I had enough on this to cover my main bet and more.

Unfortunately, Little Light only 3rd behind the easy winner.

LSP: -15.03 (win), -11.69 (place)

Devon National (4:20 Exeter) - this looks a strong renewal of the race, and is made more competitive by the fact that a lot of these have got very good records in heavy going so you can make a case for several of these. I have taken a chance on an outsider even though I have doubts about fitness. ST ERNEY has only had 3 runs, two of them here at Exeter, ran well on both occasions, finishing 10 lengths 3rd behind Lil Rockerfeller in a novice chase on debut and then a battling win in a good handicap in March. Both those wins were around 3 miles but he looked like he will stay further so I don’t think distance will be a problem. Main doubt is the fitness, as he hasn’t run for almost a year, and in such a competitive race that could be a problem. I will be happy if he can just get placed.

Selection - St Erney @ 25/1 (most bookies offering 4 places)

Good luck.

Clearly lacked fitness, always struggling and pulled up. That was the risk.

LSP: -16.03 (win), -12.69 (place)

4:00 Wolverhampton - MANDALAYAN is only 1 from 19 but has run ok on all 4 runs in novice/maiden hurdles and I think he has a good chance in this jumpers’ bumper. Warren Greatrex is 10 from 54 (+15 LSP) in these races. Paul Nicholls has an ok record in these races, but it is shockingly bad when they are favourite, just 1 winner from 22 favourites (7 of them odds on) for Nicholls in these bumpers so I am prepared to oppose the favourite. Neil King does very well in these races, but his runner Canyon City is a 3 mile winner so may find this too sharp.

Among the trainers that have runners at Wolverhampton today, Paul Webber, Neil King & Brian Ellison have the best records in these races, so their runners maybe worth considering.

Selection - Mandalayan @ 7/4

Good luck.

Unplaced.

LSP: -17.03 (win), -13.69 (place)

6:30 Wolverhampton

Mutabaahy @ 6/1
Look Surprised @ 8/1

0.5 pt on each

Good luck.

Well done AKD

Thanks Doubler. Antony Brittain stable is in red hot form, 6 winners from last 7 runners, all at good prices. That’s really something for a stable that had 25+ winners in a year for first time last year, they will surely go past that this year.

LSP: -14.47 (win), -13.16 (place)

:clap: :clap:
Chicken on the menu again :joke:

Thanks Fuzzy.

Correction to LSP, forgot to take out the losing stake doh.

LSP: -14.97 (win), -13.66 (place)

I was watching his horses today, all traveling well at the business end and running well.

yes, Doubler. His next two lost, we may have missed the boat as far as his recent good spell is concerned, but worth keeping an eye on them this year as he is a trainer on the up. Only 12 winners in 2017, 21 in 2018, 28 in 2019, already has 12 winners this year.

3:15 Catterick - with a rating of 122, Ashutor ought to win this but can’t really have a horse at odds of 4/11 that has finished 2nd four times from its 7 runs, so I am taking him on hoping one of the others can improve enough. CUBAN SUN won a handicap on flat (OR 67) for James Given, and showed promise on hurdling debut when finishing 2nd in a juvenile hurdle at Doncaster behind Fantastic Ms Fox, but was very disappointing when well beaten behind same horse and at same course upped to Listed class, she reportedly lost her shoe. She needs to bounce back and also needs to improve on her first run, but hopefully the weight allowances she gets will help, trainer Kelly Morgan has a good record in maiden hurdles - pu 66/1, unp 200/1, won 7/2, 3rd 9/4, won 15/8, 2nd 14/1, 2nd 10/1 (this horse), won 11/2 - so good run from all except the two big outsiders. Be Thankful ran well on hurdling debut for Martin Keighley when finishing 4th of 13 @ 100/1, she should improve and run well and has good chance of finishing in first 3, but there are only 6 runners.

Selection - Cuban Sun @ 13/2

Good luck.

Favourite won very easily, as he should have at that price. Cuban Sun best of the rest, with Be Thankful finishing 3rd as predicted.

LSP: -15.97 (win), -12.61 (place)

5:20 Wincanton - ART MAURESQUE hasn’t won since October 2016, but of the 13 races he has run in since then 12 have been Graded or Listed races and other one a class 2 handicap, so he is the class horse in here and rated 9 lbs and more higher than others but still gets 8 lbs from all others because he hasn’t won for so long. Fitness shouldn’t be a problem, won a point recently before getting beaten at odds on last time. Going is the only possible problem as he is unproven on soft and all wins have come on better going. Too Many Diamonds looks bit overpriced at 66/1 as his record over this distance is very good - 3 wins from 7 at 20-21 furlongs, I was tempted by 13/1 (which works out at above evens for a place) on Betfair for 4 places, meaning he needs to beat just one horse.

Selection - Art Mauresque @ 5/6

Good luck.

Less said about yesterday’s selection the better, very disappointing 3rd.

LSP: -16.97 (win), -13.61 (place)

2:50 Ludlow - very open novice handicap, all 6 runners have a chance as the betting suggests. I just narrowly prefer ELECTRON BLEU (9/2), who ran a good 2nd in a novice hurdle last time on first run after a wind operation, I think he will go close if building on that.

Good luck.