BEST of the BETS

As some of you know i wrote this a few weeks ago and landed a max bet on Brecon Hill

"As some of you know i was waiting to wade into Brewinupastorm last week and i was first gutted when olly murphy took it out and then when the hot fav rattham got murdered (my henderson chap said it was miles behind Champ who Brewing ran a stormer against...I thought i was on a good thing at 16/1!). it prompted mre to have two ante post bets on the Ballymore (50/1) and the Sun Alliance (66/1) and wait for trials day where Murphy saifd it would run. Having comitted far money than usual on an ante post what do i spot running tomorrow? Beacon hill who was a good 2nd to Brewingupastorm! then a quick form check tells me how hot that race was! the 3rd 4th and 6th all won nto and the 5th hasnt run yet !!! yet its 13/8 tomorrow against moderate opposition where the main danger is Sherwoods at 7/4 that has to give it weight and probably the bigger danger is williams ex flat horse who is receiving weight. i NEVER back short but i have! 13/8 is SCREAMING value at me and i always had this down to back it. Now this was also entered at Sandown Sat but was a nr but was only 20/1 behind Brewingupastorms 16/1. ive plunged in at 13/8 because its an odds shot in my book. No doubt something will go wrong but sometimes you just have to throw caution!"

Well Brewin runs on sat in the 300 chelt (also engaged at Doncaster in case of frost). this has been its target all along and the winner of this should be thereabouts at the Ballymore or Supteme at Cherlt in March.The form of its defeat by Champ 9as detailed above) is unbelievable and will be a max bet if Champ doesnt run!

at the mo both Birchdale and Champ are both declared with Birchdale bizarrely 9/4 fav and Champ 7/2. i think that is purely because Nicky is thinking about running Birchdale rather than Champ. in a match id have Champ 1/3 and Birchdale 2/1 , but my tissue for this race is Champ evs Brewin 5/2 and Birchdale 7/2. So immediately Brewin at 4/1 is incredible value as my tissue would make it odds on if Champ doesnt run! So i have taken the 4/1 max bet and small saver on Champ at 7/2 in case it does run. On the day there would be one winner, Champ but hopefully he will not be in this race. Champ is different class to Birchdale so hopefully you can see my thinking. Ive also had a few quid on 7/1 at Doncaster just in case.

This is Olly Murphys best horse by miles (different class to Thomas Darby) and he is desperate to win this race. Ive got 50/1 for the Ballymore itself and it will be 10/1 if it wins this.....much shorter if he beats Champ as well!

Birchdale is puzzling me as I dont hear it being talked about in the same class as Champ. o Briens is not good enough and id be more worried about anything lurking in the cheap seasts but for me if Champ runs, he wins and 7/2 will be unbelievable. if Champ doesnt run, Brewin is amazing value at 4/1 and should have a great chance.