BEST of the BETS

Drombeg Duke in the 7:30 at Cork as short as 7/2 in places from double figure prices. Part of it will be due to couple of non runners near the top of market, but even allowing for that the price is shorter than would be expected.

I was already looking at this horse as a possible bet because of apprentice jockey Dylan McMonagle, who is doing very well at the moment, having ridden 11 winners in the past month at strike rate of 16% (place strike rate of 48%) and LSP of +9.75. He has ridden only 4 times for Augustine Leahy, 3 of these rides were where he was riding the horse for first time, results of those three races, 2 wins at 20/1 & 15/2, and beaten by a nose on 5/2. Trainer’s record in handicaps at Cork is 6 from 76, nothing impressive about that but it’s 4 from 11 (+8 LSP) with those that were priced 5/1 or shorter. This horse finished 6th of 18 (beaten 4 1/2 lengths) @ 50/1 over c&d on reappearance from a 4 lbs higher mark than today, so from a lower mark today he is entitled to get closer. High draw in stall 15 is a negative but it’s looking better now, with 4 non runners means he is effectively in stall 11 now.

Maybe another interesting thing in the race is that Denis Hogan has pulled out the original favourite and let in his reserve, who has now been made favourite. But that seems too obvious to me.

I haven’t backed it yet, but might have a little bet on Drombeg Duke later as long as price doesn’t move too much. And maybe a little each way double with McMonagle’s other ride in 7:00 race.

Good luck.