BEST of the BETS

Not sure Thistlecrack deserves to be as big as 20/1 nor Lostintranslation as short as 5/2.

NOTE - Tizzard has entered Thistlecrack in the Long Walk hurdle also, so not 100% to line up.

Clan Des Obeaux
Ladbrokes King George VI Chase, Kempton, December 26
1pt win at 5-1

Clan Des Obeaux
3:05 Kempton

Since 1970 there have been 12 repeat winners of the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and horses that have run well in the race in the past nearly always come back and do the same the following year.

It is clearly something of a specialists' race and having shown massively improved form when winning last year, Clan Des Obeaux looks the value to upset Cyrname and Lostintranslation.

Clan Des Obeaux was impressive 12 months ago and while that wasn't as good a race as this year's is likely to be, he did win with loads in hand, and in an excellent time.

Don't forget he was only a six-year-old last year and it would be strange if a horse trained by Paul Nicholls did not improve as he gets older. He certainly wouldn't be the first to be much better at Kempton than he is at Cheltenham either. Desert Orchid and Wayward Lad are two obvious examples of that.

Nicholls will have been training him for this one race for nearly six months and we will see the best Clan Des Obeaux possible on Boxing Day. I'm not sure that will be the case with his two main rivals.

The track will most definitely suit Cyrname, who is two from two at Kempton over fences, and I don't have any trouble with him over three miles at a track that suits front-runners.

However, he would have been near his peak to beat Altior at Ascot and must have had a hard race that day. Furthermore, I can't believe he will be allowed an easy time of it out front like he was at Ascot because all the other runners will want to test his stamina.

Whether his rivals can go his pace to soften him up is debatable, but he's a 9-4 shot and has never run over three miles before.

Lostintranslation has no worries on the trip front and he looks a superstar in the making, but he won't be able to be ridden like he was in the Betfair Chase and win a King George.

It has always been hard to come from off the pace to win this race given the configuration of the track and I just wonder whether he'll find himself with too much ground to make up in the last half-mile.

He might pull it off, but I'm not sure Bristol De Mai was at his best in the Betfair Chase last time, and beating the two Nicholls horses around this track is going to be altogether much harder. Lostintranslation might be up to it but Best Mate couldn't do it before he went on to win three Gold Cups and I'm not sure Colin Tizzard's seven-year-old will be ideally suited by the nature of the King George at this stage of his career.

Bar the big three, it really is difficult to find a viable alternative, especially as it is hard to see Altior running after his defeat last time.

Footpad was a brilliant novice and might well improve for the step up to three miles, so I suppose it's possible that he comes into it after his excellent return when upped to 2m6f at Thurles last time. However, he still looks to have at least a stone to find and is not a big enough price in any case.

The one fly in the ointment would be if Min was to turn up because on his day he is top class – and he's been crying out for a step up to three miles. The problem is he's due to run in the John Durkan on Sunday and the chances of him lining up on Boxing Day at Kempton look slim.

Starting to get a feeling that last years 1st and 2nd might be repeated. At 52/1 and 84/1 for the reverse, its worth a couple of quid.

Thistlecrack NR.

:angry:

I rate top class races by the old Fineform master formula and convert the ratings to odds to compare with the market.

The King George VI chase looks like a race to watch.

Kempton (going forecast S with some GS showers) RP Spotlight selects Cyrname (7 pindits agree 5 oppose)
3.05 Market expected 10.50* nos 3, 5

1. 2 = 50/1 Fineform fair odds (33/1 mkt)
2. 10 = 9/2 (11/2)
3*. 17 = 9/4 (5/4) Cyrname 8 tips (C2) P Nicholls rates 28/H Cobden
4. 9 = 5/1 (7/1)
5*. 18 = 2/1 (15/8) Lostintranslation 4 tips (D) C Tizzard rates 17/RM Power

Comment: Cyrname is forecast strong favourite but short by Fineform opposite the risk.

ATR form verdict in comparison:
Harry Cobden has opted to ride Cyrname, who recently lowered the colours of Altior, over last year's winner Clan Des Obeaux and both warrant plenty of respect in a cracking renewal. Footpad was hugely impressive on his seasonal reappearance at Thurles and is an excellent spare ride for Barry Geraghty, who replaces the injured Daryl Jacob. However, the one they all have to beat is Colin Tizzard's LOSTINTRANSLATION. He was amongst the best novices around last season, finishing second in the JLT before hacking up at Aintree, and has took another step forward this term. Faultless at Carlisle before readily seeing off Haydock specialist Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase, the demands of this race should suit him down to the ground and he looks certain to be there or thereabouts at the finish. The loveable Thistlecrack, second in this race 12 months ago, and Aso complete the line-up.

Top Tip: LOSTINTRANSLATION (5)
Watch out for: FOOTPAD (4)