BEST of the BETS

6 runner handicap, and according to the betting its very open race but I do like the favourite (jt) GLOBAL SPIRIT (11/4). Selection failed to win in 13 runs for Ed Dunlop but has been much improved since joining Roger Fell, winning 2 from 6, and I think he may still have a bit more improvement to come. There are couple of possible question marks, one he is stepping up to class 4 after winning in class 5 last time, but looking at this field none of these have won a class 4 handicap before. In fact, he is one of only two (Keepup Kevin the other one) to have ever won a handicap, also last time although the runner up was close there was enough of a gap to 3rd and 4th to suggest step up in class may not be a big problem. Other thing is runner up Esprit De Corps takes him on again on 2 lbs better terms for half length defeat, strict reading of that form says EdC should come out on top today but I feel Global Spirit had a bit more in hand and also EdC’s record, who has finished 8 times but has just 1 win from 19, means he is not guaranteed to take advantage of these better terms. Another thing that I think will favour GC is the straight 7 here and the likely strong pace, he was held up last time and with similar tactics here can see him pounce late. Possible dangers include Real Smooth, who has some fair form in maidens/novices, but a trainer like Hannon doesn’t need handicaps to win races so I am not expecting huge improvement for switch to handicaps, I think they have been trying to win a novice with him but he has just come up a bit short. Keepup Kevin has won his last two at Beverley but has run well here before too (over a mile), this is tougher but I think he will give his running again and is my prediction for the forecast spot ahead of Real Smooth.

Win bet on Global Spirit (11/4), straight forecast with Keepup Kevin

Good luck.