Sunday Sovereign sounds like all the rage today in the Norfolk, but 7/4 is just too short in a 2yo race like this for a small stakes punter like myself.
Looking for some e/w value, and there does seem to be plenty around, I like the look of VENTURA REBEL at 14/1.
I think we are all fully aware of what a shrewd trainer Richard Fahey is, and I don't think he'll be bringing this one here without some kind of a chance. This is Fahey's only runner at the meeting today, and also Hanagan's only ride of the day and his first at the Royal meeting this week. Interesting that he's been plodding away at Thirsk, Hamilton & Ripon, whilst the world's eyes are on Ascot, and is riding up at Ayr tomorrow. Therefore his trip down south today could be a positive pointer in itself.
VR has won both starts thus far, with his latest win coming over C&D at the beginning of May when he beat Wesley Ward's Lady Pauline, half-sister to Lady Aurelia, and at the time supposedly the US-trainer's great hope for the Royal meeting this year. No mean feat you would have thought?!
It's also fair to say that Ventura Rebel has run a bit green both times, slowly away on debut and being pushed along early in the Ascot race, signs that there's a lot more to come. The worry is that he could become oupaced if performing similarly today, but the slower ground could in fact be an aid from that perspective, esepcially given the way he ran on to beat Lady Pauline.
Although Fahey's record with 2 year olds at Ascot isn't great, I do like his recent comments on the horse ...."I honestly wouldn’t swap him for anything in this race. We’re very pleased with him. Physically he’s come forward from his last run. We took him for an away day last week because he hadn’t run for a little while and he went very well. He’s a horse who's progressing." Again a positive coming from a pretty understated trainer.
At around 12/1 (4 places) 10/1 (5 places) I think that there is e/w value in the selection.
4 previous winners of the conditions race at Ascot that Ventura Rebel won have gone on to run in Norfolk Stakes, although none of them won 3 of the 4 ran well, Zebedee (5th of 12), Log Out Island (2nd of 10), Frozen Angel (4th of 17), so hopefully he will be thereabouts, although Ventura Rebel’s time was about 0.7 secs slower than both Log Out Island and Frozen Angel on similar going.
well im having a go in this i think course form is worth looking at. so im having expressionist each way.won in similar going and wasnt knocked about to do so.good luck.