BEST of the BETS

2nd & 5th

3:10 Doncaster - HOW FAR, 1 pt e/w @ 5/1 (5 places), Jawwaal and Danielsflyer could also run well.

GL mate

Thanks, Dodd. Poor run from the selection, the two dangers finished 2nd & 3rd, it was a hard decision between the 3 and I had to pick the wrong one.

Borderlescott Sprint Trophy (3:15 Musselburgh) - this looks a fairly strong conditions race as most of these have previously won in class 2 (Longroom the only exception), several were in good form when last seen and 4 of the 8 are c&d winners. Paul Midgley is responsible for 4 of the 8 runners, and it is one of his runners CAPTAIN COLBY that I have backed despite the fact that he comes out only 4th best at the weights, but there are enough reasons for me to think he has a good chance of finishing in first 3 at least. Midgley won this race two years ago when he had 3 of the 7 runner field, two of his runners were joint favourites but it was the unconsidered Desert Law that won at 14/1. That’s not a surprise with Midgley, as he is one of those trainers whose 2nd/3rd strings generally do better than first string. Here at Musselburgh, there have been 22 races where he had more than one runner, he won 6 of the 22 races but 5 of the 6 were with by 2nd/3rd string. Captain Colby has finished ahead of both the market leaders before, although his form with El Astronaut was 3 years ago, before the latter showed big improvement last season. Selection beat the stablemate Tarboosh over c&d last autumn. One concern for Captain Colby would be if the ground is too quick, he is 5 from 9 on good going but only 1 from 9 on good to firm. Merhoob could also run well as he has the fitness advantage over all his rivals but his improvement has been on all weather and needs to prove that he can do the same on turf. Midgley’s 3rd string Tanasoq also isn’t out of this despite being a big price.

Captain Colby, 1 pt e/w @ 6/1

Good luck.

Grrrr it’s happened again, picking the wrong one, had Tanasoq as the danger and it was 25/1, didn’t even have a saver on it.

Always the way mate :lol:

8 points down after 3 days, not a good way to start, but i feel I have been a bit unlucky so far to keep picking the wrong horses from my shortlist. I will keep going, hopefully luck will even out in long run.

3:30 Leopardstown - really good fillies maiden, with 98 rated Tarnawa heading the betting and there are couple of nicely bred newcomers from Aidan O’Brien so getting a big priced runner to even place is not going to be easy but that’s what I am doing, chancing one at a big price. My shortlist of two big priced runners that are likely to improve was made up of Heavenly Snow and QUEEN GUANHUMARA (33/1). Both of them finished down the field on debut in end of season maidens and both are likely to improve, I have gone for the latter as her form looks slightly better and trainer has a better record. Selection had finished 9th of 12 (beaten 10 lengths) behind Magna Grecia who went on to win the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy. Apart from the winner, that form looks just ok, so this filly needs to improve a lot today. But she is from a family that has produced some good stayers and she also holds an Oaks entry so there is every reason to expect this step up in trip will see her improve. And she is by Camelot, whose progeny tends to improve quite a lot from 2 to 3, his progeny’s strike rate at 3 is 13.5% compared to just 9% at 2. Henry De Bromhead doesn’t have many flat horses but he tends to have them ready enough at start of season, in last 5 seasons he has had just 6 runners on flat in months of March & April that were returning from a break of 4 months+, none of the 6 won but 3 of them placed 2nd at prices of 10/1, 33/1 & 20/1, another placed 3rd @ 66/1, and a 4th of 10 @ 50/1, only one of the 6 disappointed and that was also 50/1.

Only a small each way bet for me as this looks a very hot race.

Queen Guanhumara, 0.5 pt e/w @ 33/1

Good luck.

An interesting view point as ever mate. Good luck might just have a go myself

Thanks, Dodd. Probably improved a bit but not enough to finish only 6th, other one on my shortlist was 5th.

Aye. Swings and roundabouts for the average punters is this game mate. They either all come in or they don’t, well unless your names Matt Jarvis.

2:20 Windsor - can’t be confident about anything in this 3yo class 6 handicap, but taken a little chance on URBAN HIGHWAY (10/1), hoping a combination of drop in class and distance will see him run well. Ran poorly last time, but earlier form, including when 5-6 lengths behind 77-78 rated horses on final start for Mark Johnston before being sold cheaply, suggests he can be competitive from this mark at this sort of level. Tony Carroll’s poor record at Windsor (under 5% strike rate from 350 runners) is a bit off putting but booking of Tom Marquand looks positive. Market could be a good pointer to his chances today.

Urban Highway, 0.5 pt e/w @ 10/1

Good luck.

Not beaten far in 5th in the end, but never really looked to have a chance.

7:10 Gowran Park - probably not a lot between Jassaar and Johnny Drama on form so I was tempted to back JD at 7/2 but decided against it after reading Ger Lyons blog (he feels trip is on short side) and also I wasn’t confident as he had finished a length and half behind Minnie Haha last year, who is a bigger price today and also has the fitness advantage. All things considered, Jassaar looks the most likely winner but I am going to try one at a bigger price. Favourite’s stablemate Mujid is one possibility and at 20/1 he looks a big price on debut. But I have taken a chance on another newcomer, GLOBAL ENTRY as he could be good value in extra places market on Bet365. Bill Farrell only has about a dozen horses but he often has them ready at start of season and can get occasional early winners, on the negative side his record with newcomers is 0 from 40. This one cost €70,000 as a yearling, and has a good pedigree, his grand dam Virginia Waters won the 1000 Guineas. Booking of Billy Lee also looks a positive as he has a good record for trainer and also has a good record at Gowran Park where over last 2 seasons he is behind only Colin Keane in terms of winners among jockeys riding in this race today. I don’t expect this to win but there are enough positives to make me think that 25/1 to finish in first 8 is good value so I have had a small bet.

Global Entry, 0.5 pt e/w @ 25/1 (8 places, Bet365)

Good luck.

It’s only 20/1 8 places now.

Last, I think. Johnny Drama wins and what a price it ended up, even the trainers get it wrong it seems.

11 points down after just over 2 weeks, and still looking for my first winner on this thread.

3:50 Pontefract - the longest handicap of the flat season, despite being only a class 5 this is usually a good and competitive race, but that doesn’t seem to be the case this year. This year’s field looks poor to be honest, not only is it a small field but there are question marks against all the runners. Tynecastle Park at least is in good form having won last two but he has to prove that he can win away from Southwell too as all 3 career wins have come on fibresand there. Brandy James is a maiden after 8 runs and 4 year olds have a poor record in this. At a bigger price, Strictly Art has possibilities, he was only 6th over 14 furlongs at Wolverhampton last time, that probably wasn’t a bad race as the first 2 are improving horses, but big question is the stamina as this is a huge step up in distance, and also his trainer is only 1 from 40 here (9 placed though). This leaves me to decide between Rubenesque and GALILEO’S SPEAR as likely winner. Rubenesque has a few things in her favour as she had been in good form over hurdles before pulling up last twice, and she ran well on all 3 runs here last autumn from similar marks and trainer has a good record with his runners on flat, but her turning up so quickly after having pulled up just 12 days ago is a concern for me. Galileo’s Spear has gone 21 races without a win since joining Mark Prescott, the longest one of his horses has gone without getting a win in last 15 years at least, and it seems they have been trying to sell him. But before joining Prescott, he had been running in Grade 2 at Woodbine, and comes from a good staying family. Hope is that this step up in distance will see him get an overdue win, and he is actually weighted to reverse the placings with Rubenesque on their two meetings at this course last season. Only a small bet for me, as can’t be confident about a horse with such a long losing streak.

Galileo’s Spear, 1 pt win @ 18/5

Good luck.

Only 3rd, again I pick the wrong one of my final two.

Yep but as you said at the start, not the easiest to select in. If Red Admirables run yday was anything to go on then it won’t be long until the tide is turning again mate.

Thank you, Dodd. Not worried about losing run yet as there is a long way to go in season, but just frustrating that I have picked the wrong one from shortlists so many times.

European Free Handicap (2:25 Newmarket) - I would have preferred 8 runners in this but taken an each way chance on KUWAIT CURRENCY (10/1) in this. Selection faced a couple of impossible tasks in two big Group 1s at end of last season, but there was nothing wrong in finishing 9 lengths behind Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst. He was more disappointing at Doncaster next time, but he possibly got tired having raced keenly. C&D form is important here, and horses who were unplaced in the Dewhurst have a good record in this race, in last 20 years only 7 horses that ran in Dewhurst previous season have run in this, 3 of the 7 won although none of the winners in this decade. Before running in the Group 1s, selection had won the Listed Stonehenge Stakes, beating two of today’s rivals Dubai Dominion and Arctic Sound who are both shorter price than him today. Trainer has a good record in this, winning twice in last 5 seasons (including 25/1 last year) as well as a 20/1 2nd and 14/1 3rd. Shine So Bright, who has very consistent form at Group 2 level is a danger, and Victory Command, based on his 4th in Royal Lodge (Group 2) over a mile here, could also run well though Mark Johnston’s record of 0 from 11 in this is a negative.

Kuwait Currency, 0.5 pt e/w @ 10/1

Good luck.