• herbie
    Can’t be bothered to retype but I do a bit of work for a Bookies, here are my thoughts:

    Terrible UFC card for a PPV but the main and co main are interesting.
    Co main:
    I think Adesanya is the future of this division and have backed him at 12/1 and 8/1 to be champ at year end. However...
    He has idolised and pretty much copied Silva’s style and although Silva is almost certainly shot to bits (42 years old) there is a chance Adesanya could freeze.
    Silva is a counterpuncher and if he is ever going to win a UFC fight again this could be it.
    I think 1/6 Adesanya, 4/1 Silva is fair but if Silva wins it will almost certainly be by KO
    If laying is push out Adesanya slightly and lay him to win by anything but KO. Also lay Silva by decision.

    Whittaker is the man and better at everything than Gastelum.
    Gastelum has an annoying habit of just winning though...
    That said, I think Whittaker wins this by KO or points. If Gastelum wins it will be by KO early, round 1 or 2.

    I’d lay Gastelum outright as well as him
    Winning by sub as Whittaker is hard to take down. Be aware that some sub wins come after a knock down punch but unlikely.

    Finally Adesanya and Whittaker both to win R1 KO is an interesting 18/1 with SkyBet. Not overly large but I’d make it 7/4 Adesanya and 7/2 Whittaker. Small interest.
  • dodd
    Hi Herbie, agreed about the general stature of fights and fighters outside the main and co main.

    Have been listening to various experts and ex fighters recently, most notably Chael Sonnen who said this is the fight that Silvas been waiting for, he’s waited an age for a pure striker and Israel Adesanya is just that, he’s not going to have to wait and see what Adesanya brings to the table but in the same breath Anderson is the fight that Israel wants and in my eyes he’s the champ in waiting and the face of the company, everything in the stand up will be better from Adesanya, quicker, stronger, fluent in combination. Anderson is 43 and hasn’t fought for nearly 2 years to the day on Saturday night, a fight that arguably he should’ve lost against Brunson. Adesanya has only had what 3 UFC fights? He has improved leaps and bounds in each one, he simply brushed Derek Brunsons attempts to take the fight south and after showing some deficiencies against Marvin Vettori. At this time I think it’s the perfect fight for Israel Adesanya and I think he stops Anderson Silva early, I can’t make a case for Anderson, even factoring in his status in the game I just can’t.

    Regarding the main event, I have pleaded Kelvin Gastelums case for a while. Chris Weidmann got the better of him ultimately using sheer size and his fantastic wrestling pedigree but not many people can get the better of him. Can Robert Whittaker? I’m not so sure. If this fight was in the states I’d price Gastelum slight fav but when you factor in the judges, the location, you can’t ignore the unruly outcomes that continue to be thrown up, most notably last week when Thiago Alves won a SD in Brazil against Max Griffin, 2 judges scoring for Alves 29-28, which I just couldn’t get my head around. This example and previous carbon copy’s lead me to think that Gastelum is going to have to fight 5 with an exclamation point to get a decision over an Aussie champion in Australia, however and more importantly, I think these guys are come forward fighters, they’ll meet in the middle, Kelvin Gastelum will want it in the pocket, Whittaker will oblige, Kelvin can take a shot, has fast hand, polished boxing, Whittaker was hurt very badly on a few occasions against Yoel Romero, Gastelum is a better technical striker than Romero, he can exploit Whittaker and i think he will, I think he will stop him in the midddle of the fight. I can’t not back Gastelum.

    Also looking at Devonte Smith, Jalen Turner and Jonathan Martinez. I wouldn’t rule Sam Alvey out against Jim Crute either, Alvey has form for going down under and upsetting the apple cart but for what it’s worth my main bet of the weekend will be Kelvin Gastelum no dohbt about it.
    i guess these fights stop soon after foot in mouth lol
    gl men
  • herbie
    Good Post. We may have to get you to guest on our podcast one day ;)
  • dodd
    thanks Herbie. I’d appreciate a link to your podcast if you have one. I’m interested to listen.
  • herbie
    Here you go my man... iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/slap-head-and-the-giraffe/id905359048?mt=2

    If you don’t have an iPhone just search for Slap head and the Giraffe.
    We were number 1 in the charts a while back.
    Guests include Mike Dolce, Justin Wren, Brad Pickett, Nathaniel Wood, Roger Gracie, Luke Barnatt, Jimmie Rivera and many more

  • dodd
    class mate. Thanks will have a listen
  • dodd

    Whittaker out now with Hernia and fight is off. Talk about short notice
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