BEST of the BETS

interesting read but i could have saved them 146 years research by telling them that favs only win about a third of races and more importantly often start far shorter than the 3.4/1 needed to just about break even! Its still a good read tho and thanks John for posting.

the crowd in racing are often "mugs|"...otherwise bookies would be poor. Bookies love multiples but hate individuals landing single bets. Value is everything.

My tip to an aspriring punter is learn to write your own tissue based on facts and your opinion . only use the official handicapper as a reference and i personally ignore Racing post ratings as tthey are often nonsense. use Timeform as a guide...theyve done all the breeding and speed work for you, but rely on your own eyes. No excuses these days with the technology available you can watch every race in Britain.

Try a tissue for 100 races before you bet and tweak til you have system that works for you.

i used to run a racing service (opinions not tips or inside info). it went well but after a bout of sudden and totally unpredictable ill health, decided to knock it on the head and just enjoy the game itself. At their request i still provide some tissues for a bunch of loyal subscribers,who had been with me for 10 years, to work on and they very generously reward me, win or lose. These tissues are a vital part of my strategy and every now and again, one leaps out at me at being overpriced (like Brewinupastorm for the Ballymore...i have 50/1 and its now 14/1) and again last summer Emaraaty Ana at 12/1 for the Gymcrack when i made it a 4/1 shot...it won at 5/1...all because of what I saw at Windsor on its debut and the subsequent form of who it beat thereafter....meant my tissue was screaming value and i had a very good bet on it...admittedly after losing a hefty bet in between (where there were excuses).

so for me, self pricing or "tissuing" is vital but you have to know your stuff and have a good eye and understand form eg beating the same or poor horses does not mean its good, just well placed by the trainer...but that can reap dividends if you realise its head and shoulders above the rest, therefore evs can be a great price (ie value) when you rate it at 1/3!

i never follow the crowd...go racing and youll see why. i havent got an Aunty Doris, so why would i back it!

Betting is like anything in life, you have to put the work in, but if youre like me, the work is great fun and i love it! im wrong 2/3ds of the time but as long as the 1/3rd im right with are over 4/1 im a happy chappy!

Great write up Hippo

I hide the prices wherever i can while looking at form etc
its amazing though often the one that comes out is the fav or second fav
I find if you look at the prices first it puts you off long shots
finely is a master at these so called no hopers i think hes got x ray eyes

yesterday was a prime example imo. on the last race at wolves. i backed albert finney at 5.2.in the morning. now they had counting sheep priced up at 4.6 . oly lunatics would have baqcked counting sheep. not only did albert finney win but the prices come the time of the race had flip flopped. where they got the price from for counting sheep in the first place was beyond me.

Good read, and some good points made by everyone. Many reasons why it can’t work for racing, one there are too many variables, and even if someone can master all the variables there is still hidden information not available to general public (especially in low grade races, because you can never be sure if they will be trying or not). Another question is, does the market get formed based on crowd’s opinion or is it the other way around, I would say it’s the latter. So I agree with other posters about not looking at prices or even forecast prices, and try to create your own tissue, but with so many variables to consider it’s not easy to do that either.

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/fav0.php