Another laying thread
  • AKD
    492
    As there seems to be a lot of interest in laying at the moment, I thought I would offer my laying advice too as I do quite well with them. If anyone is new to laying and decides to follow me, I would advise them to start with the lowest stake they are comfortable with as there are no guarantees and it can be costly if you have a bad run. I only do one lay a day and it will always be favourite at the time of posting. Another very important thing if anyone decides to follows is that you need to be comfortable with the price you are laying at, I will only post after my bet has been matched and you might not be able to lay at same price and if you decide to lay at a bigger price anyway then it may not be profitable for you in the long run. As an example, my lay today was Voix Des Tiep at Limerick, I got matched at 2.34 in the morning but it ended up going off at 3.60 which is a huge difference. Although it still lost, I would not have advised anyone to lay it at that price. So same as backing, you always have to look for value and not just lay at any price.

    I will start from tomorrow, hopefully it won’t start badly as most of my threads on here tend to do lol.
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  • dodd
    74
    Good luck AKD
    dodd Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks guys.

    Nothing today. Slanelough in 12:55 was the one I wanted to oppose today but it’s too risky at the price and better option may be to back Scorpion Sid instead. In the 2:30, Volcano certainly looks underpriced at the moment but it’s dangerous to oppose NTD’s 4 year olds against older horses, so I have decided not to get involved today.
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  • AKD
    492
    Another tricky day with big fields and the favourite prices are bigger than I would like, but have taken the plunge anyway.

    1:30 Warwick - Wisecracker layed at 4.0

    12 race maiden, although he is consistent he doesn’t seem to have the pace to win races. It is a weak race, but so were the last two races he contested, hopefully he will find one too good again.
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  • AKD
    492
    Happy to get the first loser without any problems.

    Looks another tricky day,

    3:30 Southwell - Angels Acclaim layed @ 5.0

    Just 1 win from 11 for this mare, and although she ran well enough on first try on this surface last time when finishing 5th here last time, she was beaten 4 lengths and I think she needs to improve quite a bit even though it is a weaker race.
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  • AKD
    492
    Stayed on to finish 2nd when the race was over, but never looked in danger of winning.
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  • AKD
    492
    2:20 Wolverhampton - Military Law @ 2.42
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  • AKD
    492
    Gone for a very short priced one but it’s already on the drift and could be a risky one but I have taken the chance. Finished 2nd last time in a novice race which was a very poor one apart from the winner, but even the winner was winning its first race on 9th attempt. So a mark of 87 on handicap debut doesn’t look easy for Military Law. He was returning from a long absence last time, but Gosden usually has them spot on so I am not sure if there can be too much improvement.
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  • Dexy
    221
    WD again and Gd luck today :ok:
    Dexy Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Dexy. Bit of a setback yesterday with Military Law winning, it didn’t help that his main rival stayed rooted in the stalls for a good few seconds but that’s no excuse.

    Today’s is in the 2:35 at Southwell - Mininggold @ 4.6

    Now her win over c&d last time looked impressive but I think it was made to look more impressive due to poor opposition, only two of the 12 runners in that race had won here before and one of those 2 was an 11 year old. She is up in class today in a race where, including herself, there are no less than 9 c&d winners. Also she has never in her career won two races in a row so I hope she will be beaten today.
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  • Amadeus
    53
    Good luck AKD
    Do you think CAPONE in 12.40 Ludlow is a false favourite?
    Amadeus Options
  • AKD
    492
    Thanks, Amadeus.

    I will admit that I haven’t looked at the race in great detail, but they ran him in the Grade 2 first time up so must think a bit of him. Also the 2nd favourite is rated in 70s on the flat, whereas Capone was considered good enough to run in the German Derby where he finished last of 11. So although I wouldn’t back him at as short as 4/7, I don’t necessarily think he is a false favourite.
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  • AKD
    492
    Two more favourites beaten at Southwell, it’s now been last 18 favourites at Southwell that have been beaten, so I hope that drought doesn’t end with the one I have layed as it is strong in betting. Actually I was waiting all morning to see if they would make Francophilia the favourite in 2nd race and I would lay it, but it was only before the off they made it 2/1 from earlier 10/3, that looked a false favourite to me.
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  • AKD
    492
    Sorry, it turned out to be a bad lay. It’s been a while since I had two losses in a row, but it does happen that’s why the warning about laying being costly if you hit a bad run. It does feel worse though that other people may be following me, so apologies
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