• owenjohn
    137
    I've found one that I really like this evening.....
    SHAHEEN 6:30 Windsor (curently 7/2 at B365), please bear with me for the long-winded reasoning!

    This gelding runs off a mark of 86 tonight, which is the same mark as when running 2nd in a Class 2, 5 furlong contest at the July meeting at Newmarket.
    Today's contest is a Class 3 affair, over 6 furlongs. The horse has already won twice previously over the 6.
    Record since being gelded - 3-9-1-2-1-2, suggest he is progressive.
    He was pulled out at Newmarket just over a week ago, due to unsuitable Good to Soft ground, so hoping that today's conditions are favourable.
    The horse is very consistent, 13 lifetime runs have yielded 4 wins, 2 x 2nds and a further 4 x 3rds (though 3 of these were only 6 runner affairs).

    An interesting piece of recent form, from 3 runs ago (23rd June at Ayr)....finished 2nd, 3/4 length behind TOMMY G, giving Tommy 2lbs. Tommy was running off a mark of 70 that day. On Saturday Tommy won the Stewards Cup consolation handicap at Glorious Goodwood, running off a mark of 81!

    Now for some stats!!.....

    Shrewd trainer John Quinn is in a rich vein of form, 8/29 (28%) win rate in the past fortnight. He is 1/1 at Windsor this year, and has only sent 3 runners down to the course in the past 5 years!

    Jockey Jason Hart is also flying, 9/38 (24%) in the past fortnight. He has only had 3 rides at Windsor in his whole career, and has won on 2 of those!!

    The Hart/Quinn combination have had 6 winners from 12 runners in the past fortnight, a 50% win rate!

    Quinn doesn't send them on a long trek for no reason, as proven with his 8/1 winner at Galway yesterday.

    If they come for this, it could be a lot shorter than 7/2 come the off.

    So there's that poor bugger well and truly jinxed. Sorry John & Jason!!
  • AKD
    492
    Win or lose, that’s very good reasoning. Hope it wins for you, good luck.
  • fuzzyduck
    32
    Bet365 are offering 40/1 for 7 places
  • Dexy
    221
    Superb analysis.... fantastic VWD Owen :up: :up: :up:
  • AKD
    492
    Very deserved winner, top analysis, well done.
  • JOEMUGG
    464
    well done looked an impossible race
  • jimfl
    10
    Well done
  • coss
    8
    yeah well done mate
  • King Claudio
    3
    Great stuff , if dexy’s comes in I could be on a tidy sum
  • Mugz
    539
    Excellent stuff owenjohn, great write up and you got a great price as well !

    :starstruck:
  • Mugz
    539
    Interesting race that Tommy G one. The 3rd Equitant has also won since and is entered tomorrow.
  • jambo
    31
    Brilliant Mate.
  • JOEMUGG
    464
    B fifty two also was in there got touched off today
  • CMB
    308
    Excellent stuff OJ well done.
  • CMB
    308
    The form of Equitant's penultimate run aint bad too
  • Rodeo
    255
    well done.
  • owenjohn
    137
    Thanks all :) Nice to be able to post a winner on the new forum. probably the same amount as I posted on the old one in 16 years!! :lol:
  • BONZO
    21
    Excellent write up and analysis owenjohn, and just sorry I seen it too late to take advantage.
    Well done and those type of contributions make the new site up to the quality that we have seen in the past from the old one......keep up the good work.
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