BEST of the BETS

Bet #106 - 4:30 Ballinrobe - On The Tide, e/w @ 7/1

On The Tide is yet to win from 6 starts, but he seemed to show improvement last time on his first run this year when finishing 3rd of 14 (btn 10 lengths) at Kilbeggan earlier this month, the winner was a 2/9 shot from Willie Mullins stable and the runner up although returning from a long absence had been rated 85 on the flat so it doesn't look a bad effort from OTT first up. In his previous race last December at Thurles he had finished 6th of 15 in what looked a strong maiden, with the runner up rated 122 and the horse who finished one spot behind OTT now rated 117.

His trainer Seamus Neville's record of 5 from 112 in maiden hurdles overall doesn't look impressive but 4 of those wins were with 5yo s. Actually with 5yo s in maiden hurdles that went off at 8/1 or shorter, his record is 4 wins from 7 (2 others finished 2nd) for LSP of +14.50.

This is a rare runner for him at Ballinrobe. In last 10 years, he has only sent one runner on this long trip here, that was for a Grade 2 race and it placed 3rd (16/1). So I find it interesting that he has sent this one here, I hope it's because he thinks this course will suit. On The Tide's sire Beat Hollow does have a good record here at Ballinrobe, 8 wins from 43 runs (wins with 8 different horses) that improves to 8 from 21 (+4.80 LSP) with those priced shorter than 10/1.

There doesn't appear much depth to the race, horses rated 99 & 91 are in first 6 in betting, 2nd fav Silver King ran a couple of good races last year but he was very disappointing on his return last time when a well beaten favourite. The favourite Quarry Rocco looks the main danger coming here after finishing 4th in a maiden at Galway. QR had finished 7th in a Tipperary bumper on his debut, interestingly On The Tide had finished a close 2nd in previous renewal of that bumper last year, probably not a good idea to compare races from different years but I think that effort showed he has a win in him, he was gambled that day, hoping for market support again today and a good performance.