BEST of the BETS

Just one short priced winner this month so far from 11 bets, about 9 points down. I have set myself a cut off of 12 points for the month so if don't get a winner in next 3 bets, I will take a short break.

Bet #85 - 1:55 Killarney - Kyogo @ 4/1

Kyogo ran in 3 maidens/novices (placed once at odds on) for Michael Bell before being sold for £27,000. That form and the one run on flat since joining Gordon Elliott (finished 6th of 7, but was 6th in betting so finished more or less where he was expected to) are nothing special, but these juvenile hurdles are not the strongest races and he does have the highest flat rating (72) out of all these. Presumably he was bought to run over hurdles and the flat run could have just been to get him fit after 9 months absence.

Elliott does have a good record in these races. In 3yo maiden hurdles, with horses who had a flat rating of 66 to 80 on their latest run, he is 8 from 31 (+28.16 LSP, 1.75 A/E). Kyogo's pedigree also gives a positive for this hurdles debut, his dam half sister to Mamlook who won 6 times over jumps including off 139 OR.

Elliott also won inaugural running of this race last year, with a horse who had a flat rating of just 47. Three horses in this race already have hurdling experience, having run at Tipperary, including the 3rd from that race Sparkit who is current favourite. Elliott trained the runner up at Tipperary so should know what he is up against regards the favourite. Last year, 4 horses had run in that race at Tipperary before running in this, best of them was a distant 3rd place. Having said that, this year's race looked stronger so I am not ruling out Sparkit.

One doubt I have is because of the market. Elliott ran two horses in this race last year, one was favourite and had been forecast favourite too, he fell when leading. The winner was gambled from 10/1 down to 10/3 2nd fav. Market move suggested connections knew more than the general public about horse's chances. There is no surprise element about Kyogo as he was forecast at 4/1.