BEST of the BETS

Mugz, I know what a film is! I watched Sea Biscuit and National Beauty!!! Thought this was a racing forum not a Film reviewing service. Much prefer to watch Blazing Saddles than a miler beat about 10 horses in its lifetime! Whay are you featuring the new Tom Cruise movie or a remake of Carry on Nurse! Or was i expecting a panel to sit there and discuss the merits of Sid James and Co!

Spindrifter, great point, so eloquently put!!!....and errr no, i dont know it! never won a 1.5 mile ...the Classic Distance. Never ran in a King George, Arc etc etc etc Good miler, yes, but how many different horses did it ever beat? Just my opinion so dont twist yer knickers, oohhhhhh errrrr missssssus...cue Carry On Sid James Laughter

Of course Henderson wins the 1st after Hills look ill at ease over hurdles and never got in the race.

Midnight Gift looked like hacking up until it made a mistake at the last and held on to win by a shd! Time will show the 1st two are useful and both will learn a lot. But the 2nd got so close under a powerpacked finish from Johnson. I think Kings will improve past that one.

it will be awful as all "racing " films are! Hope it shows how few individual horses it ever beat (it beat the same horse over and over again)and NEVER ran the Classic Distance (1 1/2 miles).....not a patch on Dancing Brave, Nijinsky et al Maybe they could cast Elizabeth Taylor as a work rider and John Wayne as travelling head lad!

...and of course it had to be the fat oaf!!! But ew collected and it did run a cracker. will be winning soon but doubt 12/1 again! Jock gave it a great ride and just lost to a better horse

Well getting a battering today with just one to go...mind you this is my best best bet of the day...but drifting alarmingly! that last race saw a classic Victor Dartnell gamble...hammered in the market and wins hard held!

All part of the game im afraid!

Just had a look at my acca its 485,000/1 ew !!! Happy days!!!

I was reading about this yesterday. A very inspirational young woman and a great project in Brixton. The idea started in America...trying to get gang members to ride horses! lots of inner city stables....needs funding though. Not record science, give kids something to do, a purpose and they will thrive and NOT be drfawn into the world of gangs. No doubt the caring Tories will have this in their next manifesto...NOT!!!

felt i dodged a bullet on Sat...the going was terrible and therefore almost unraceable. Tear all the form up, not worth a light. Doitforthevillage ran a nice race byt long run ins are not its forte. Held on for 4th so bet365 to rescue again but gone in my notebook as one to follow on better ground. Also a tip in itself is when Brennen rides for Paul Henderson

Australia

I wouldnt put anyone off but i wont be playing. it looked old and tired lto and although now off a laughable 55 thats probably what it is. In heavy ground at a horrible track? ill leave it. My opinion of it lto was retire it. Probably bolt up now!

Peregrine, oh i thought you were implying something was wrong by Mullins as his outsider win!!!! lol! No worries mate, we have differing views and opinions and thats what racing is all about. If we all thought the same the game would be easy!

Im not naive enough to thing the game is entirely fair. My point is theres no point "fiddling" in a big race...the rewards are there to see. Thats why a very good mate of mine only bets in Group races...no point fiddling! And he has made a living out of racing for over 30 years!

Stables like Easterby (all of them!!!), O Meara, Fahey, Boyle, Best, Michael Appleby et al are on my "swerve list". Cheating is ingrained in them like their Dads, uncles et al. I remember the legendary Colin Tinkler telling my uncle that in the Low Grade Northern Handicaps (like redcar, Ripon, Catterick), the Malton lads used to decide who's turn it was and could probably name the entire finishing order....before a race!! then SIS and televised racing came in and they had to be more subtle!!! No, not just a Northern thing! Geoff Lewis, Akehurst, Atwater, Boyle, Best etc are in the rogues gallery. One of the biggest chancers has finally been outed "Mr Brisbourne" and had to back the game ! And of course the master villain "Sir Mark" who gets names like "shrewd" "clever" "master of placement" "handicapping expert"....all clever words for "C H E A T"!!!

But then again, thats why these boys rarely win a group race or even run in one, thus fairly safe to have a bet.

O Brien is different. He has an embarrassment of riches and has to run several in one race because he can never run in handicaps because the handicapper wont let him. He got have Muffin the Mule and the handicap will give it 141! So he runs hundreds in gp races and of course the "1st string2 wont always win but when the "1st string" gets beat by another O Brien horse everyone cries foul! But on closer inspection it was only rated 2lb below the "1st string"! Whos cheating? noone! Who's a mug? The punter for backing Moore at 6/4 and not backing Hefferman at 33/1! If you go back to Royal Ascot i went near max bet on heffermans at 25/1 against Moore at 2/1 and won! I also gave reasons for my choice...Moore had never ridden the "2nd string" because it was a difficult horse at home and Hefferman is considered the better horseman. Result? hefferman wins! A few on here cried cheat, a few congratulated me on spotting the cheat! I hadnt! There was NO cheat! All i did was my homework and worked out Heffermans was a better horse and thank you very much for 25/1 while the mugs went 2/1 on Ryan Moore.

so yes, i agree there is cheating in racing, lets face it, anywheres theres money , theres cheating! If drugs were free, there would be no dealers! If there was no betting there would be no Easterbys (a man can pray!!)

Anyhoo, good discussion Peregrine, exactly what the Board is for

Cracking price on Glory and Fortune...went in again as soon as it touched 9/4 (last nights price)...puzzled about drift as Laceys mob had been barking for weeks. Mind you it cant job, nor could the fav! Curious race! Good old Anteros , it would have been cruel to beat as it was miles clear of 3rd. may win again depending on hcappers reaction which shouldnt be harsh. sherwoods ran really well and unlucky to bump into a Hobbs Special! Emmas wasnt good enough in a hot race but im keeping it in my notebook. Lively Article was worth a punt at 25/1 but sadly cant see it ever winning!

So ggod profitable day on the whole and great to be back with Real racing!!

Peregrine

im afraid loads of horses suffered the same fate...thats what happens with 32 odd runners on a track with one turn. probably 20 hard luck stories and 10 or so not breaking a sweat. Mullins "criticised" the rides on both of his in the immediate interview on Racing UK saying "they were both placed far too far out back and both given far too much to do". i think an honest assessment. all 3 horses under different ownership so cant see collusion and coupling would have had no effect whatsoever.

Great White Shark: "Unseated rider 2f before arriving at start, held up in midfield, not clear run and shuffled back 5f out, switched left, right and tried to rally 4f out, no chance but plugged on to pass beaten horses from over 1f out (op 11/1)"

Buildmeupbuttercup: "Held up towards rear, closed 5f out, switched right and headway 4f out, chased leaders 3f out, no extra under pressure and beaten over 1f out, weakened final furlong (op 13/2 tchd 11/2)"

sorry mate, doesnt wreak of a fiddle to me. Also why would 2 Group 1 millionaire riders get involved in a tin pot coup? They earn more in interest than they would get out of a fiddle.

sorry mate, just a nightmare handicap that noone should bet in except a few quid to throw away (like my bet)....the result 25/1 50/1 50/1 33/1 would suggest that if there were loads of fiddles, they all lost. And back to my point...Tony Bloom does not suffer fools (jocked winston off for losing 1 race) and its obvious he and Mullins were as shocked as anyone that theirs won (thus the price...believe me if there was a coup Bloom would have been on big time and it would have been 9/4 fav ...remember Withold gamble?).

Just a forgettable race that needs forgetting and move on and if trainers run several in a race of course theres a good chance one will win. read Fallons book about Ballydoyle when he was there. he was TOLD which one to ride and often thought his price was stupid compared to a stablemate who probably had more ability. who makes these prices? the sheep ie stupid punters! Im very happy for Ryan Moore to keep riding hot favs while I pick up cash on Donacha and Seamie and wayne!

Hi Micky

Yeah it is a minefield, but with the logic youve shown, the Stratums of this world can stick out (not withn me tho! Doh!..although to be fair i spent 2 mins studying as its of no interest to me). great tote spot too, which also makes me think Tony bloom was as shocked as the rest of us!

Now I dont rate Skelton at all (now im expecting a barage!). Hes a one trick pony a la Pipe in his early days. Get a horse, get them stupidly fit, run in poor races no matter what the odds and boast hes had 200 winners! His horses will rarely improved because he runs them at 120% fto. yes every now and again he may hit a jackpot or two, but thats because its a good horse DESPITE his training methods. And because of his ignorance and obsession with winners and stats he will let some good ones go, like Mullins winner. He thought it was poor because his methods didnt produce win after win. i bet Mullins stripped it bare and brought it back together again. Mullins horses are happy horses and well looked after (im not suggestion Skeltons arent) but he will get improvement where others cant thats why hes the master and Skelton the poor apprentice

To be fair he said before the race (to Matt Chapman) that Stratum had been out of form on the flat but had won a hurdles race lto " but clearly fancied the other 2 more. After the race he also pointed out one unshipped and Frankie had the co fav in the wrong place and gave it to much to do. thank good we dont have "coupling"...you seriously would be happy with the 25/1 shot being the same price as the co-fav or less? Plus dont they have to be in the same ownership to couple not trainer? (French prices are appalling and over round by huge percentages.It is the owner that forces the plunge on his horses (Tony Bloom) so im presuming he had very little or nothing on it. Also I think we all get caught up in conspiracy theories far too much. These top trainers with 100s of horses have 100s of owners to please too. All three owners wanted theirs to run, so he runs them. On current and known form, his three were rated accordingly in the betting but as you pointed out, Stratum was always capable and had the ability to win that race.

plus betting in these ridiculous handicaps ran over distances noone runs over all season, gets raided by jump trainers, raided by Irish horses who's handicap system is totally different from ours, plus running on ground only hurdlers had encountered before....well too be honest when you put that lot in a formular you must be stupid (me included!) to have a bet! Thats why i had a tiny bet on a 50/1 shot! anyone that plunged on Baldings ( i heard absolutely zilch from this non gambling trainer so must have been a bookies fake gamble that morons latched on to....moderate form, never ran on ground like that, never run the distance , trainer never won the race (well i dont think so) etc etc). Maybe thats why the result was 25/1, 50/1 50/1 and 33/1!!

i heard some idiot on telling becrying the Pinutubo race decrying how O Briens 2nd or 3rd string gave Pinutubo a race when they had lumped on Wichita!!! First of all, he took on the best 2yo ive seen in 25 year!!! (proved its class by still winning easily on awful ground) and O Briens "2nd string" won the Coventry for goodness sake! i offered to take the guys bets in future and give him an improved margin. despite him knowing ive got the means (and integrity) to pay him he turned it down! He said hed rather side with Hills (and its awful prices!)...i rest my case your honour!

ive said for years if you want horses to run to their exact form every time buy a scalectrix and dont go near animals!

handicaps are what they are. each horse, given good health, well trained, right ground, right course, right jockey can dead heat with any other horse in the race.

You may have noticed my selections are seldom short prices. I dont follow the sheep. Look at Ropey Guest on sat, i took 50/1. If you watched its Grp3 race before against Wichita, it was running a cracker and would have been closer if not hampered terribly just as it was quickening up...straight into my note book! The Fav at 5/2 beats Wichita (only its 2nd start) by 1 length. Now in my notes i noted that in my opinion Ropey would have been beaten by Wichita by 2 lengths max. Given that this was Ropeys 4th race at Newmarket (fav never had to handle dip before), the soft ground would fav more experienced horses and the big one....it was 47.5 points bigger in the betting than the fav, i had to have a bet. i also thought the trainer may be realistic and ride it for a place knowing it probably wasnt good enough to win...hey presto, ive got a bet! Thats how my mind works. i could thrown in that the fav had Crowley on its back which is a huge negative, running at Newmarket for the 1st time and on ground its nerer seen...throw in 2 Godolphin improvers and it didnt take me long to write it off. Thank goodness my thinking worked but i didnt have to risk much at 50/1 to get a good return ew.

Ive only given my thought process betting as an example, not to gloat. But im seriously worried about how people think when they bet. yes, its largely true that when its a favs day i generally lose although if i think its best horse in the race and is value (and yes 2/1 CAB be value) i have no problem lumping on. But seriously, either Baldings or Mullins at 9/2? The bookies were laughing at us and anyone that bet them needs sectioning!

of course i did the ew extra 4th and it was 5th! Doh! Will be better when sent handicapping on better ground. Im not abandoning it tho, trainer is convinced this is a good horse and will be better at 3. No excuses for Emmas, a well beat 3rd

Cheers Rodeo, beggars belief doesnt it? Willie is a good judge aso that really must be an awful race

chesterfield ran a cracker in 5th, Mrs Worthington got heavily backed and nabbed by an outsider (but had ew so ok) and Imogen gave Mama Africa a good ride in 5th

Poor day but none too mmuch expected

Well, so it continues but the claimer was hilarious. Fav drifts from odds on to 2/1 and gets beat by horses wrated 63, 65 and not rated (100/1...read willie muirs comments on Lambourn page...even he thought it was useless!). It gets beat nearly 8 lengths! wow thats dreadful considering how well it was. Bells 2yo gets beat (easliy) by a springer from Tom wards stable (ex hannon)25/1 to 8/1.....luckily i never played with Plait as it just shows you supposed good things get baet...but PLEASE read Willie Muirs comments about the 100/1 shot ! Ho hum!

What a oile of poo summed up by lavenders blue nightmare race! Oh well sats have been good to me so cant complain

Whoops! Well spotted fla! Yes! At ascot talking to one of clives owners and they cant belive the price. They think ‘tis marvellous to run well but think this one may sneak a place! I love 100/1 shots!