BEST of the BETS

Bet #3 - 2:12 Naas - Lightkeeper @ 13/2

Price has made me take a chance on this as it has almost doubled in price from the 7/2 this morning. The favourite Tullyhill was turned over at odds of 1/8 on his hurdling debut, he is very short again at 1/3 and I wanted to take him on with something. There are a few other alternatives as well as the selection, like other newcomers Union Station and Spellacys Cross, and the once raced The Great Unknown who could improve, but Lightkeeper looked the most likely one to me on pedigree.

Lightkeeper's dam Our Victoria was a 5-times winner, winning on her first hurdles start and went on to win three times over fences, rating close to 130. 2nd dam related to top class chaser Our Vic, so pedigree is pretty good.

Lightkeeper has run in 3 point to points, finishing first last time before being demoted. He needs to improve on that IF the favourite runs to his bumper form, but booking of Jack Kennedy first up is a positive.

Bet #5
Doyen Ta Win (1:35 Clonmel)
LSP = -4.00
LLLL

Thanks, Ribot, Malcolm.

Another poor run yesterday. Losing when horses run well enough is ok, but when they run as badly as my first two bets of the year have then it does create some doubts, hopefully things will change soon.

No bet today. I had considered Doyen Ta Win (1:35 Clonmel) today, 8/1 outsider in 4-runner field but as she pulled up last time it would have been a speculative choice. She is the only one with course form (3/14 but that was in a 0-100), improved to win 3 handicap hurdles last season before being upped in class. She has a chance back down in class today but is up against a Mullins hotpot. I might have taken the risk if I was in better form, but will just watch now.

Bet #4
Embolden (3:50 Leicester)
LSP = -3.00
LLL

Thanks, Malcolm, best of luck with your bets.

Bet #2 - 3:50 Leicester - Embolden @ 13/2

Winning form is quite thin in this race. Embolden is one of only 3 in this 13-runner field that have ever won a race, and from these three Invincible Wish has not won for more than 6 years, that leaves Embolden and Tara Iti as the only two that have won within last year. Tara Iti was 36 lengths behind Embolden when they met at Plumpton last month so it seems unlikely that he can turn it around.

Admittedly, 2 of Embolden's 5 wins came in claimers/sellers for previous trainers, but he has at least shown that he is able to win which is more than can be said for some of the others in the race. He is 2 from 24 for current trainer, one win on flat (OR 63) and one over hurdles (OR 93) last April. In 11 runs since that win, he has mostly been consistent, placing 5 times. Handicap mark has dropped to 88 now.

It wasn't an easy decision to back though as trainer Clare Hobson doesn't get winners very often, she has had just 7 wins (2 of those with this horse) from 365 runs in 11 years of her training career. That record improves a bit to 5 from 131 in jumps handicaps, 1 win in each of last 5 years. But that is also why booking of a top jockey in Sam Twiston-Davies catches the eye, Sam has never ridden for Hobson before but trainer's record in jumps handicaps improves to 2 from 18 when they are ridden by a jockey with 25+ wins in past year.

Hard to feel very confident given trainer's record but it's a very ordinary race and at the price I feel it's worth chancing.

Robber's Bridge is also pretty consistent, but is still a maiden after 15 runs and has failed to win off similar marks in past, and he was 6 lengths behind the selection at Uttoxeter in October off 2 lbs better terms.

Thanks, Ribot.

Year couldn't have got off to a worse start. Flagrant Delitiep (9/2 SP) ran no sort of race and was the first one beaten.

Bet #3
Flagrant Delitiep (3:25 Plumpton)
LSP = -2.00
LL

Bet #2
Fearless (3:45 Ayr)
LSP = -1.00
L

Well done Bazza62

The Newest One

Thanks Malcolm, good luck all.

Bet #1
In This World (1:10 Musselburgh)

End of month score

Total selections = 18, 4 winners (9/4, 85/40, 5/4, 2/9), 14 losers

LSP = -8.15

Thanks Ribot.

Base Note drifted to 7/2 and could finish only 2nd behind the favourite. It brings to an end a difficult month that ended in loss of 1.67 pts, 14 bets placed in December for 2 winners (3/1 & 85/40) and 3 e/w bets placing (16/1, 11/1 & 10/1) for returns of 12.33 pts.

Total for 2023 was 142 pts staked for returns of 160.39 pts and profit of 18.39 pts, which is pretty ordinary. I will try to improve on that next year.

It's been a difficult year for me on a personal level, losing my mum earlier in the year, and my own health has been up and down at times. Thank you everyone for your support throughout, I hope the new year turns out better for everyone. Best wishes.

Thanks Doubler.

Bet #18
Base Note (1:54 Lingfield)
LSP = -7.15
LLLW2/9LLLLLW5/4LLLW85/40LLW9/4

Thanks Ribot.

Thanks Malcolm, Ribot.

Mitigator shortened into 9/4 close to the off, thankfully the market confidence wasn't misplaced this time.

Surrey Quest (Nap)

Thanks Malcolm, good luck all.

Bet #17
Mitigator (7:15 Wolverhampton)
LSP = -9.40
LLLW2/9LLLLLW5/4LLLW85/40LL

Thanks Ribot and Malcolm

Marciano ended up going off at a silly price of 7/4 and not even placed :sad: