BEST of the BETS

Another excellent write-up. Good luck, AKD.

Thanks Malcolm, Ribot

The Coffee Pod (11/2 SP) finished 3rd of 4 in a bunch finish. Not going well with just 1 winner from 12 bets this year but I will keep trying.

Bet #13 - 6:20 Carlisle - Hot Team @ 4/1

Hot Team is usually thereabouts, has a 43% place strike rate from 14 handicaps he has run in this year and he looks set to run well again at a course he has already won this season. Although he is 11 lbs higher than that win here in May, he did win that race by 8 and half lengths and he has since then also won easily at Hamilton from 5 lbs lower than today. Has a good record at Hamilton with 4 wins there, form often transfers well between Hamilton and Carlisle so I am hopeful he will run well.

Good luck, AKD.

Good Luck AKD

Thanks Ribot, Malcolm

Hot Team went off 11/4 favourite but it was another disappointing loss as he could finish only 6/8.

Bet #14 - 6:00 Sligo - Last Encore @ 13/8

The favourite Rebel Diamond sets a decent standard with OR of 85, but Last Encore may possibly have more improvement having had just one run. Selection was unfancied on debut in a Naas maiden and went off at 40/1 but ran well to finish 4/13. Can't be too sure about strength of that form but on limited evidence available so far it doesn't look bad, only one horse from that race has run since then - Manhattan Chute who was 9 1/2 lengths behind Last Encore in finishing 11th but ran a blinder next time to finish 6/21 @ 150/1 in the valuable Ballyhane auction race. Interestingly, finishing right next to him was And So To Bed who had previously beaten today's favourite Rebel Diamond.

Good luck AKD :up:

Bet #15 - 4:27 Kempton - Help Me Rhonda @ 4/1

Help Me Rhonda cost £110,000 as a yearling, but sold cheaply (£11,500) after 6 winless runs in Ireland. Well supported favourite on stable debut for James Fanshawe last time before finishing only 6th. Form in maidens in Ireland doesn't look bad, 7th of 18 (albeit beaten 12 lengths) on debut in Cork maiden earlier in the year, first 3 from that race are now rated 104, 106 & 96. This is much lower level with her racing off just 56, having been dropped another 1 lb since last run. Also interesting that Muscutt is on board again, his recent record on short priced horses is pretty good, 12 from 30 (+19 LSP) on horses priced 5/1 or shorter in last 30 days. It's obviously risky in a race like this but selection is potentially better than this lot.

Help Me Rhonda finished only 5th, so yet another loss. It's been a stop start year for me with only 15 bets so far producing just the one winner at 9/4, only positive from that is that at least I haven't had too many bets.

Keep the faith and don't bet unless you fancy one. Some days nothing stands out . That is the way I play .

Thanks Peregrine. Back after another short break, this time trying a longer priced one.

Bet #16 - 2:55 Killarney - Rodeeve, 0.5 pt e/w @ 16/1 (most bookies paying 4 places)

Rodeeve finished down the field (12th of 13) on Dundalk debut in the spring when starting at a big price, with a similar performance 2nd time. But notably put in an improved effort on 3rd start when encountering heavy going (7f) for first time to finish 3rd of 16 @ 250/1. Her two runs since then in maidens at Gowran and Fairyhouse have been ok, finishing within 4 lengths of the winner on each occasion, the favourite in last race Declaree (2nd) is a very consistent type so form looks reliable.

Trouble is Rodeeve has appeared to weaken at finish over 7f so I am not completely sure she will stay the mile. Having said that, pedigree suggests it shouldn't be a problem, and also this is a weak handicap that she is starting off in from a mark of 65 and last 3 runs in maidens suggest she should be competitive at this level, so at the price I am prepared to take the risk.

Rodeeve would have won by a street had the contest been to find the horse that could run backwards fastest. I am not giving up though, not yet anyway, back for more punishment today.

Bet #17 - 2:30 Huntingdon - Vivid Pink

Vivid Pink is trying this two and half miles trip for first time, and that is the angle I am taking into this race hoping that the step up in trip will bring some improvement. She has run over further than this once (UR) but that was in a maiden hurdle where she was 125/1, so I will ignore that. Her dam Pink Diamond is yet to produce a winner but she herself was a winner on flat over 10f and related to a stayer on the flat, which makes me think that this mare will stay this trip.

She doesn't have many miles on the clock, having run just 7 times for Alan King, she still has time to get her first win in a weak looking race with a few exposed ones in there. Handicap mark of 93 looks about ok.

Arguably, her best effort so far came here at Huntingdon when finishing a close 2nd (28/1) in a maiden over 2 miles, behind an odds on winner now rated 117. Her sire Sea The Moon has had a winner at the course this year from just 4 runners, with form figures of 2102 (the 0 was a 125/1 shot).

So I believe the course will suit, and I hope the distance will too. But the way my selections are running, I should be thinking about laying it.

Big Price - Good Luck m8 :up:

Thanks Malcolm.

Vivid Pink (11/1) ran encouragingly to finish 2nd, unfortunately I didn't do it each way but better than finishing last as with previous day's selection.

Bet #18 - 4:45 Newmarket - Higher Leaves. 0.5 pt e/w (most bookies paying 4 places)

Risky in opposing the very strong favourite Dance Sequence for Godolphin, that's why I have gone each way with this one hoping it will finish in first 4 at least. Won a Dundalk maiden over 10 and half furlongs at start of season, beating a horse who has since gone close at Group 3 level.

Big price and only 8th of 12 in the Ribblesdale (Gr2) but seemed to show improvement last time for an easy win in a Listed race in France. Stepping back up in class but manner of that win suggests she should be capable. Last time she beat another Godolphin favourite in Rock'n Swing. Both Rock'n Swing & Dance Sequence had run for Godolphin in Prix Diane and betting (13/1 & 10/1) suggested there wasn't a lot between them so I see it as a positive that my selection has beaten one of them already.

Higher Leaves has stamina so should be staying on at the finish, hoping that she will also have the speed to stay close enough.

3rd place for Higher Leaves (12/1) for just a small profit of 0.7 pt, but I will take any returns at the moment as it's been a while.

Bet #19 - 3:55 York - Bryant

Not very confident about this as the front two in betting have both shown enough to suggest they could win a race like this, but the prices have made me take a chance on the newcomer Bryant. Selection's sire Wootton Bassett produced his best performance on very testing conditions to win the Grand Criterium, and his progeny's record is also slightly better than average on soft going, so I believe today's conditions will suit if he has enough ability. His dam Steip Amach was a consistent performer at Listed/Group 3 level, and won two Group 3s over 7-8f including as a 2yo so pedigree looks good.

Bryant cost 220,000 guineas as a yearling, nothing special about that price tag as it's still below average for a WB colt, but owners Amo Racing have done very well with this sire's progeny. 4 of the 5 2yo WB colts to have raced in Amo Racing colours won on debut for LSP of +15.50. A word of caution about that stat is that in all those races at least half the field was made up of newcomers, unlike in this race where Bryant is the only newcomer taking on experienced runners which makes things that much harder.

So not a lot of expectation, but hopefully he will run well. Market drift is not a problem as owners' horses often run well despite drifting in betting. Only 2 places on offer and front two in betting both having good chances too, each way isn't really an option so just gone all or nothing.

profit is profit m8 :clap:
Good Luck Today :up:

Thanks Malcolm. It was back to normal yesterday.

Bryant (9/1) finished 4th of 7.

Gone for an obvious one today, but not too confident that's why I have gone each way despite the price being only around 5/1.

Bet #20 - 4:45 Goodwood - Rhoscolyn, 0.5 pt e/w

Rhoscolyn has such a good record in these conditions here, winning 5 of 6 races he has contested on soft or heavy at Goodwood, 4 of them in this class. Also 7 of his 9 wins have come when running within 20 days so quick return is not a worry.

Ed Greatrex rides for first time, he has been a different jockey since coming out of retirement, 31 winners at strike rate of 18% for LSP of +164, even if we take out the 125/1 winner these are still healthy returns.

Rhoscolyn has never won off a mark this high though, 2 lbs higher than his 1 length win over CD last month, and there are potentially improving 3yo s like Marcella & Arkhalia Flynn (not much between those two based on their run at Epsom two weeks ago), that's why I am cautious and taken the seemingly safer option of betting each way.

Great write up as usual m8 - Good Luck :up:

Thanks Malcolm.

Rhoscolyn (4/1) 2nd, so just a small loss of 0.1 pt. After 20 bets, numbers for year to date are -14.15 pts.

Bet #21 - 2:00 Hereford - Moodofthemoment, win bet

Taking a chance in going against what may be a good thing, but it's a silly price imo, let's see.

Moodofthemoment has shown improved form in 3 runs since joining this stable, finishing 2nd on each occasion. All 3 of those runs coming over 16-17f at Worcester. Steps back up in trip to 2 miles 5 now, which I think is a positive, has placed form over 2 and half miles, and although yet to win under rules, he is 4 times winner in point to points. Drops down in class from class 4 last time, and I feel this slightly bigger field than last time will also help.

He was initially given a rating of 107 over hurdles which may have been a bit high, but from this mark of 96 he should remain competitive.

Good Luck AKD :up:

Good Writeup and good result well done AKD