BEST of the BETS

Bet #1
Go To War (2:25 Huntingdon)
LSP:

Good luck all.

Thanks Malcolm.

Parisiac (12/1 SP) ran ok but finished just out of places (5/12).

Bet #32 - 2:25 Huntingdon - Go To War @ 5/4

Short price, but was progressive for Fergal O'Brien winning 3 of 6 starts including last two in novice hurdles, switch to Nicky Henderson looks a big positive. Henderson is 11 from 25 (+12 LSP) in handicaps with horses joining him from other stables when priced 7/2 or shorter. Stable is in good form, from 58 runners in last 30 days, 35 were making their seasonal debut and from these 11 won for LSP of +5.08 including 7 from 12 that were priced 7/4 or shorter.

Henderson's record in this race is not great, last winning it in 1997, he has had seven runners in this since then including a couple of favourites, but 2nd fav Rock House trainer Dan Skelton is also 0 from 5 in this. Hobbs and Lavelle are only other trainers in this race that have won it before but both are represented by outsiders today.

Thanks Malcolm. Last bet was a loser.

Back after another short break. LSP after 30 bets YTD is -10.32

5:50 Newcastle - Parisiac, 0.5 pt E/W @ 10/1 (4 places, 1/5th odds)

Parisiac is 0 from 7 on all weather, and has not raced at Newcastle before but 6 of those 7 AW runs were in higher class, in only AW run in class 5 he finished 3/12 @ 33/1 (Wolv, 6f). That was in a similar race to this and off same mark (75) as today. 5f shouldn't be a problem here with a strong pace likely. Has mostly run well on turf since joining Iain Jardine this summer and won impressively in class 4 at Nottingham last time, up 6 lbs for that but now drops in class on return to AW.

Thanks Malcolm.

Yesterday's race went according to the market and Penzance (9/2) was only 3rd of 7.

Bet #30 - 3:09 Redcar - Red Mirage, win bet

Feeling quite positive about this one's chances today but that's not always a good thing. Red Mirage has won off as high as 90 (Chester) in the past but even his form this season gives him a good chance in this class 5 event, a class he has rarely been able to drop down to. Only previous time he was rated low enough to enable him to drop down to class 5, he won at Catterick at start of this season (OR 77). Despite not running too badly in some of the races since then, his mark has now dropped to 76. Distance and going are fine, and although first run at this course I don't think it will be a problem.

The two at top of betting (Temper Trap & Ey Up It's Jazz) are both consistent types, so both have chances but neither of them is a frequent winner at this level. TT has not won above class 6 for over 2 years, and EUIJ is still on a higher mark than his last win which came 18 months ago. So, I feel this is a winnable race for my selection.

Good run from Kotmask (9/1), but just came up a couple of lengths short.

Bet #29 - 2:20 Kempton - Penzance, win bet

Highly progressive last winter, winning four 10f handicaps in succession on polytrack and tapeta. He is of interest now returning to all weather after 4 unplaced runs on turf (is 0 from 6 on turf). His rating of 95 looks a bit low, in 18-year history of this race the lowest rated winner has been 97, but he was rated 100 before running on turf and I feel he can at least run up to that level back on AW.

That may still not be enough be as top two in betting here are rated 108 & 105, but both are trying artificial surface for first time. So, not a lot of expectation but I am hopeful of a good run and could win if other two fail to run up to their turf mark.

Bet #28 - 2:05 Ascot - Kotmask, win bet

Competitive race, so not expecting a lot but I have taken a chance on Kotmask. Booking of Caoilin Quinn has played a big part in my decision to back this. Quinn has a 16% win rate over the past year and is good value for his 3 lbs claim, a claim he is close to losing and my thinking is Gary Moore will be looking to make use of it to land a good prize somewhere.

Kotmask's last win came under this jockey at Plumpton in February. He does need to improve a little bit as he is still 2 lbs higher than that win, and also all his winning form so far has been on softer going than this. He is still lightly raced though, having run in just 9 handicap chases so there is possibility of improvement to come.

Moonhall Church (25/1) finished 5th of 16, not a bad run considering the price but no returns.

No bet today, I had been considering one in 2:44 Dundalk but the price doesn't make it worth risking now. Zabeir was heavily gambled last time from 25s down to favouritism but failed to place, finishing 7/14. The money has come for him again this morning (15/8 from 11/2), he is certainly handicapped to win and this is an easier race but with a record of 1 from 18 it would seem crazy to get involved at such a short price now so i will just watch. At bigger prices, one of the handicap debutants Profit Surge could have place chances but not too confident of that either.

Thanks Malcolm.

Kapability won @ 10/3.

Bet #27 - 2:00 Galway - Moonhall Church, win bet

A risky one today, and it's a much bigger price, but I am hoping it will run well. Moonhall Church is one of only 3 in this nursery to have ever won a race. That win came in a claimer at Fairyhouse last month. She has contested 3 strong handicaps since the, first two were higher class and she finished down the field. Even last time out at Dundalk that was a stronger race (0-83) than this, and although 6/14 she was only beaten a length. This 0-72 where she is the top weight, looks much easier race and should go close providing she handles the testing conditions.

Her sire Churchill gets good results with his 2yo s, and has had 17 2yo winners in last year at a good strike rate. Don't know a lot about the trainer as he has only been training for a year, this was his first 2yo winner. Hopefully the quick turnaround of 10 days since her last run won't be a problem.

Last selection Souffionne (14/1) finished only 8th of 10.

Bet #26 - 4:08 Aintree - Kapability, win bet

Newcomers take up top 3 spots in the market, and it's one of these that I am siding with. Kapability's sire Authorized has a 24% strike rate (19 from 78) on NHF debuts for LSP of +12. Among all stallions with 150+ runs in NHF races, Authorized has one of the highest win rate for individual winners.



Owners, the Cheshires, have had some good horses (all of them with Chris Gordon) including 2 winners (Leave Of Absence & Presenting A Queen) and 2 placed (20/1 & 40/1) from just 10 debuts in bumpers in last 5 seasons. As far as I know, this is their first runner with Anthony Honeyball, who has a better record than Gordon in bumpers, and booking of Cobden looks a positive.

2 of the 3 runnings of this race with 1 lb wfa allowance have been won by the 4 year olds. The race won by 5yo only had three 4yo s in it. Claim Du Brizais, another 4yo, also has a good chance, but I feel Kapability offers better value.

Last two bets, Charlatan (5/1) finished tailed off last & Lovely Spirit (7/2) finished 2nd of 5.

Bet #25 - 6:00 Wolverhampton - Souffionne, win bet

A risky one as the selection does need to improve having been beaten 6 lengths here three weeks ago in a weaker race. But with the original favourite out, it looks an open race and at a double figure price I feel Souffionne may represent a bit of value.

Hopes for improvement hang on the first time blinkers, trainer's horses often improve for them. And although Ali Rawlinson has never ridden a winner for Palmer (0 from 4, all priced 18/1 or bigger), I still feel it is an interesting jockey booking. Overall, Rawlinson has quite a good record when riding horses for the first time, and also he has a good record in head to heads against most of the jockeys in this race.

Selection's form is nothing special but at least he is still unexposed, and has run well at this course (over further) from 15 lbs higher earlier in the year.

Short of time today, so just a short write up.

Bet #24 - 2:20 Haydock - Lovely Spirit, win bet

Made her debut on soft going, and ran well to finish 3/10, so today's testing conditions should be ok. Yet to finish out of first 3 in any of her 5 races, and although gone up 2 lbs for finishing 2nd last time, that looked a stronger race. Down in class, I am hopeful of a good run. Trainer does quite well in nurseries and had another winner 3 days ago.

Thanks Malcolm.

Clongorey (12/1) finished only 4th of 11.

Bet #23 - 5:45 Chelmsford - Charlatan, win bet

The favourite Bold Suitor looks way too short now, so I think there is value in opposing him, and Charlatan is one of those that look capable.

He won 3 weak class 6 handicap/classified stakes start of year. He ran four times on turf during the summer without success but was not fancied in market for most of those. He still placed 2nd last twice and from 3 lbs lower than at start of summer, so interests me on this return to all weather (3 wins from 5 races on AW compared to 0 from 7 on turf).
.
He hasn't had a lot of exposure to this course, just one run here finishing 3rd of 8. Although he needs to improve on that as that was off 8 lbs lower it was his handicap debut and first run after 8 months off, I think he will like this course.

Course & distance winner H Key Lails looks a danger.

Thank you Malcolm, Calvert, and Doubler.

Moodofthemoment won @ 17/2 for profit of 8.5 pts.

Bet #22 - 5:20 Punchestown - Clongorey, win bet

Taking on another odds on shot, but this time it looks even harder because it's not just the Willie Mullins' favourite to worry about but the 2nd fav Lau And Shaz also has a good chance. The race looks between these 3.

My selection Clongorey, a 4yo, has had two runs, both in maiden hurdles and now runs in a bumper for first time. She finished 4th both times, last run looks poor at first glance as she was beaten 40 lengths but the clear winner may turn out to be decent. Clongorey's time was only 1.9 secs slower than the winner of 0-95 handicap hurdle on same card, so I don't think the run is as bad as it looks. Having said that she still needs to improve, but I am hopeful.

Form of debut run worked out well, with the 2nd & 7th horses winning maiden hurdles next time, and there have been 3 other winners come out of the race.

I am not sure about the conditional jockey as he doesn't have a great record, would have preferred Jack Kennedy to stay on it, so that's a bit of negative.

Thanks Malcolm.

Rhoscolyn (4/1) 2nd, so just a small loss of 0.1 pt. After 20 bets, numbers for year to date are -14.15 pts.

Bet #21 - 2:00 Hereford - Moodofthemoment, win bet

Taking a chance in going against what may be a good thing, but it's a silly price imo, let's see.

Moodofthemoment has shown improved form in 3 runs since joining this stable, finishing 2nd on each occasion. All 3 of those runs coming over 16-17f at Worcester. Steps back up in trip to 2 miles 5 now, which I think is a positive, has placed form over 2 and half miles, and although yet to win under rules, he is 4 times winner in point to points. Drops down in class from class 4 last time, and I feel this slightly bigger field than last time will also help.

He was initially given a rating of 107 over hurdles which may have been a bit high, but from this mark of 96 he should remain competitive.

Thanks Malcolm. It was back to normal yesterday.

Bryant (9/1) finished 4th of 7.

Gone for an obvious one today, but not too confident that's why I have gone each way despite the price being only around 5/1.

Bet #20 - 4:45 Goodwood - Rhoscolyn, 0.5 pt e/w

Rhoscolyn has such a good record in these conditions here, winning 5 of 6 races he has contested on soft or heavy at Goodwood, 4 of them in this class. Also 7 of his 9 wins have come when running within 20 days so quick return is not a worry.

Ed Greatrex rides for first time, he has been a different jockey since coming out of retirement, 31 winners at strike rate of 18% for LSP of +164, even if we take out the 125/1 winner these are still healthy returns.

Rhoscolyn has never won off a mark this high though, 2 lbs higher than his 1 length win over CD last month, and there are potentially improving 3yo s like Marcella & Arkhalia Flynn (not much between those two based on their run at Epsom two weeks ago), that's why I am cautious and taken the seemingly safer option of betting each way.

3rd place for Higher Leaves (12/1) for just a small profit of 0.7 pt, but I will take any returns at the moment as it's been a while.

Bet #19 - 3:55 York - Bryant

Not very confident about this as the front two in betting have both shown enough to suggest they could win a race like this, but the prices have made me take a chance on the newcomer Bryant. Selection's sire Wootton Bassett produced his best performance on very testing conditions to win the Grand Criterium, and his progeny's record is also slightly better than average on soft going, so I believe today's conditions will suit if he has enough ability. His dam Steip Amach was a consistent performer at Listed/Group 3 level, and won two Group 3s over 7-8f including as a 2yo so pedigree looks good.

Bryant cost 220,000 guineas as a yearling, nothing special about that price tag as it's still below average for a WB colt, but owners Amo Racing have done very well with this sire's progeny. 4 of the 5 2yo WB colts to have raced in Amo Racing colours won on debut for LSP of +15.50. A word of caution about that stat is that in all those races at least half the field was made up of newcomers, unlike in this race where Bryant is the only newcomer taking on experienced runners which makes things that much harder.

So not a lot of expectation, but hopefully he will run well. Market drift is not a problem as owners' horses often run well despite drifting in betting. Only 2 places on offer and front two in betting both having good chances too, each way isn't really an option so just gone all or nothing.

Thanks Malcolm.

Vivid Pink (11/1) ran encouragingly to finish 2nd, unfortunately I didn't do it each way but better than finishing last as with previous day's selection.

Bet #18 - 4:45 Newmarket - Higher Leaves. 0.5 pt e/w (most bookies paying 4 places)

Risky in opposing the very strong favourite Dance Sequence for Godolphin, that's why I have gone each way with this one hoping it will finish in first 4 at least. Won a Dundalk maiden over 10 and half furlongs at start of season, beating a horse who has since gone close at Group 3 level.

Big price and only 8th of 12 in the Ribblesdale (Gr2) but seemed to show improvement last time for an easy win in a Listed race in France. Stepping back up in class but manner of that win suggests she should be capable. Last time she beat another Godolphin favourite in Rock'n Swing. Both Rock'n Swing & Dance Sequence had run for Godolphin in Prix Diane and betting (13/1 & 10/1) suggested there wasn't a lot between them so I see it as a positive that my selection has beaten one of them already.

Higher Leaves has stamina so should be staying on at the finish, hoping that she will also have the speed to stay close enough.

Rodeeve would have won by a street had the contest been to find the horse that could run backwards fastest. I am not giving up though, not yet anyway, back for more punishment today.

Bet #17 - 2:30 Huntingdon - Vivid Pink

Vivid Pink is trying this two and half miles trip for first time, and that is the angle I am taking into this race hoping that the step up in trip will bring some improvement. She has run over further than this once (UR) but that was in a maiden hurdle where she was 125/1, so I will ignore that. Her dam Pink Diamond is yet to produce a winner but she herself was a winner on flat over 10f and related to a stayer on the flat, which makes me think that this mare will stay this trip.

She doesn't have many miles on the clock, having run just 7 times for Alan King, she still has time to get her first win in a weak looking race with a few exposed ones in there. Handicap mark of 93 looks about ok.

Arguably, her best effort so far came here at Huntingdon when finishing a close 2nd (28/1) in a maiden over 2 miles, behind an odds on winner now rated 117. Her sire Sea The Moon has had a winner at the course this year from just 4 runners, with form figures of 2102 (the 0 was a 125/1 shot).

So I believe the course will suit, and I hope the distance will too. But the way my selections are running, I should be thinking about laying it.

Thanks Peregrine. Back after another short break, this time trying a longer priced one.

Bet #16 - 2:55 Killarney - Rodeeve, 0.5 pt e/w @ 16/1 (most bookies paying 4 places)

Rodeeve finished down the field (12th of 13) on Dundalk debut in the spring when starting at a big price, with a similar performance 2nd time. But notably put in an improved effort on 3rd start when encountering heavy going (7f) for first time to finish 3rd of 16 @ 250/1. Her two runs since then in maidens at Gowran and Fairyhouse have been ok, finishing within 4 lengths of the winner on each occasion, the favourite in last race Declaree (2nd) is a very consistent type so form looks reliable.

Trouble is Rodeeve has appeared to weaken at finish over 7f so I am not completely sure she will stay the mile. Having said that, pedigree suggests it shouldn't be a problem, and also this is a weak handicap that she is starting off in from a mark of 65 and last 3 runs in maidens suggest she should be competitive at this level, so at the price I am prepared to take the risk.

Help Me Rhonda finished only 5th, so yet another loss. It's been a stop start year for me with only 15 bets so far producing just the one winner at 9/4, only positive from that is that at least I haven't had too many bets.