Comments

  • Top 10 courses for c&d winners
    Unlucky Maxh, for some time it did look like it might well hold on.
  • Top 10 courses for c&d winners
    Reveal
    Only 3rd in the end. Made the right decision not to bet, any system has to be followed to the letter, there will be more opportunities, will just need a lot of patience with this system.
  • Top 10 courses for c&d winners
    Very weak on exchanges, looks unlikely to go off favourite at the moment but there’s still over 10 minutes to go, so just watching the betting at the moment.
  • Barking Dog
    Lovely price, well done.
  • 5:10 Carlisle
    Tried to make all, but got caught close home, I was right about Sam riding one winner at least as he won on Arthur’s Gift earlier on the card.
  • Horrible
    I didn’t see the race, but yes it’s horrible when something like this happens. I understand how you feel, and I would be asking myself same questions do we really care and can we do anything about it? And to be honest, I would be struggling to find answers.

    I think Aypee has summed it up really well, and I will second everything he said.
  • Top 10 courses for c&d winners
    Thanks guys. There is a possible bet tomorrow under the beaten favourite system. Gowanbuster (8:00 Newcastle) currently meets all 4 conditions for the system. It was beaten favourite last time, is turning out quickly after running here on Friday, and is dropping from class 5 to class 6, and it is currently the favourite. It is priced 5/2 at the moment against 10/3 2nd favourite. I will wait till close to the off and will only bet if it looks certain that it will go off favourite.
  • My selections for today.
    Well done, Dodd.
  • Kempton tonight singles and doubles
    Very nice, well done Bodger.
  • THE COOLERKING CUP 2019 FINAL
    Well done, Rockavon.
  • Couple of each ways
    Probably not. Smooth Stepper never really in it, but plodded on to finish 5th. Lizzie Langton placed 3rd @ 12/1, so only a small loss on the day.
  • AKD and Brian Pricing Analysis
    Winner, 3rd & 5th from your top 3, well done Brian.
  • 8:30 Dundalk
    Thanks, Dazzler, and Dodd.
  • AKD and Brian Pricing Analysis
    Hello, Calvert. Sorry I didn’t see this earlier, our race pricing thread got interrupted due to break in racing, but I also felt my results were not very good considering the time it was taking, but I might pick it up again sometime.

    So I haven’t done the pricing for this race, but next best thing I can do is post how all the runners are ranked on my ratings.

    1. Yala Enki
    2. Vieux Lion Rouge
    3. Ramses De Teillee
    4. Caroles Destrier
    5. Ah Littleluck
    6. Red Infantry
    7. The Two Amigos
    7. Chef Doeuvre
    9. Royal Vacation
    10. Impulsive Star
    11. Pobbles Road
    12. Robinsfirth
    13. Ballyarthur
    14. Bishops Road
    15. Ballyoptic
    16. Wakanda

    It’s a tight handicap as you say, my idea of the winner would be Red Infantry or Ah Littleluck, and I have had small bets on both these.
  • 8:30 Dundalk
    Thanks guys. A big rule 4 due to late withdrawal of the favourite, but still a good profit.
  • Top 10 courses for c&d winners
    Thanks, Calvert.

    Also a list of top 10 performing trainers when it comes to last time beaten favourites. But be careful with this as sample size is not very big, average of less than 200 runners per trainer.

    1. Ben Pauling
    2. Chris Wall
    3. Alistair Whillans
    4. David Lanigan
    5. John Balding
    6. Willie McCreery
    7. John Mackie
    8. Seamus Mullins
    9. Andrew Oliver
    10. Dean Ivory
  • Top 10 courses for c&d winners


    I have looked at the beaten favourite angle and they do tend to do a little bit better than average. There doesn’t seem to be much difference between UK and Ireland when it comes to performance of beaten favourites, very marginally better in Ireland but not enough for it to be a factor. Biggest clear factor, not surprisingly, seems to be class of race, those dropping in class do few points better than average, horses running in same class perform average, and those moving up in class perform worse than average. Note: I know they don’t use class system in Ireland, but it can be worked out by looking at difference between prize money. Another big factor, although sample size for this isn’t huge, is if the horse is running very quickly after last run. Those beaten favourites who run within 7 days of their last run show much better return than those with a bigger break. And when you combine these two factors of beaten favourites dropping in class and also running within 7 days, you have a system that has shown a profit over last 10 years, blindly backing these qualifiers has shown a profit of 4% at SP and 9% at Betfair SP, but you only get on average about 60 of these qualifiers in a year. You can further enhance this system by only betting horses who are favourite again, and I am actually going to use this as a system. Horses who meet all 4 of these conditions of beaten fav last time, dropping in class, running within 7 days, and favourite again, have returned a 30% profit at SP over last ten years. Only trouble is you only get about 30 of these bets in a year, another drawback is you have to wait till before the off to see if the horse will go off favourite. Record over last 10 years is 157 wins from 329 bets for a strike rate of 48% and +99 LSP, two qualifiers so far this year both won at 3/1 (Foreign Legion, who has incidentally run up a 4-timer) and 5/2 (Space Bandit).
  • Top 10 courses for c&d winners
    Thanks, Maxh, I will get back to you about beaten favourites.

    I should clarify my above post by saying that backing every c&d winner at these courses will not guarantee a profit. Course & distance form is just one factor, of course many other things have to be considered. Stats show that on average c&d winners have about 4-5% (no more than that) edge over horses who haven’t won over c&d in terms of profit/loss. But at certain courses that edge is a lot bigger than average, for expample at Hexham which has always been considered a specialist’s course that edge is nearly 20%, so that was the idea behind above list.