One a day
Hi DFM, no problem for me about advice on my thread. I am open to everyone’s opinion but always make my own mind up in the end. Regarding betting place only, then yes with above 10 bets I would have made profit of 3.28 pts at Betfair SP, but it’s only a small sample and I am hoping I will get more winners than 2nds in future.
3:10 Ayr - 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle (4, heavy)
Calivigny has a good record here with 4 wins, and won easily over fences last time, but he has never won from a mark this high, at age of 11 and a couple of unexposed rivals he will do well to defy this mark so not for me. Leostar also won very easily (14 lengths eased down) last time, his first win, has been raised 14 lbs for that and this is a much better race.
One that interests me most is, You Name Him, Tom Lacey’s runners first time in a handicap are always worth noting. He has 11 wins from 54 runners (LSP +19) when running them in a handicap hurdle for first time, with those that had placed on previous start and were stepping up in distance by 3 furlongs or more on handicap debut the record is 11721 (7th was a big price) for LSP of +16.50. Judging by pedigree, this one looks sure to be suited by step up in trip. Heavy going is one question as I generally don’t like backing young horses on heavy going, but Proclamation’s progeny has a good record on it - 8 wins (with 6 different horses) from 55 on heavy in NH races, 7 from 24 (+16 LSP) if you only include those priced under 10/1.
Although he has been beaten by 9 lengths or more in all his races so far, form of those races is pretty good. Beaten 20 lengths in 5th at Southwell, but the first 3 between them have since then won 7 races from 13 and are rated 131, 127 & 140. 2nd race he was 10 lengths behind the winner, who has since then won a couple more and finished 2nd in Grade 2 at Chepstow and is rated 141. No winners from his last race yet, but it probably wasn’t a bad race either as there were 125 and 122 rated horses that were well beaten and the winner went close in class 2 last time. So there is enough form to suggest he can be competitive from opening mark of 114.
One negative is that despite this being a long way to travel, Lacey’s record at Ayr is not great - he sent 4 runners here at last meeting couple of weeks ago but could finish no better than 4th with any of them. But this time the jockey is Jonathan Burke, who has only been to Ayr couple of times before (for the Scots National meeting), they have a few runners today so we might get a clue from how the first couple run.
Doyen Breed is another unexposed runner, he finished 2nd on handicap debut last time. That looked a weak race though, so he needs to improve but there is every chance that he could improve as it was first run for trainer and first after a break last time.
You Name Him, 0.6 pt win @ 5/1, 0.4 pt to finish in 1st two @ 7/4