BEST of the BETS

Good luck, AKD.

Thanks, Ribot.

Year couldn't have got off to a worse start. Flagrant Delitiep (9/2 SP) ran no sort of race and was the first one beaten.

Look on the bright side - things can only get better
hoping to make a start myself tomorrow m8 :up:

Thanks, Malcolm, best of luck with your bets.

Bet #2 - 3:50 Leicester - Embolden @ 13/2

Winning form is quite thin in this race. Embolden is one of only 3 in this 13-runner field that have ever won a race, and from these three Invincible Wish has not won for more than 6 years, that leaves Embolden and Tara Iti as the only two that have won within last year. Tara Iti was 36 lengths behind Embolden when they met at Plumpton last month so it seems unlikely that he can turn it around.

Admittedly, 2 of Embolden's 5 wins came in claimers/sellers for previous trainers, but he has at least shown that he is able to win which is more than can be said for some of the others in the race. He is 2 from 24 for current trainer, one win on flat (OR 63) and one over hurdles (OR 93) last April. In 11 runs since that win, he has mostly been consistent, placing 5 times. Handicap mark has dropped to 88 now.

It wasn't an easy decision to back though as trainer Clare Hobson doesn't get winners very often, she has had just 7 wins (2 of those with this horse) from 365 runs in 11 years of her training career. That record improves a bit to 5 from 131 in jumps handicaps, 1 win in each of last 5 years. But that is also why booking of a top jockey in Sam Twiston-Davies catches the eye, Sam has never ridden for Hobson before but trainer's record in jumps handicaps improves to 2 from 18 when they are ridden by a jockey with 25+ wins in past year.

Hard to feel very confident given trainer's record but it's a very ordinary race and at the price I feel it's worth chancing.

Robber's Bridge is also pretty consistent, but is still a maiden after 15 runs and has failed to win off similar marks in past, and he was 6 lengths behind the selection at Uttoxeter in October off 2 lbs better terms.

Good luck, AKD.

Good Luck AKD :up:

Thanks, Ribot, Malcolm.

Another poor run yesterday. Losing when horses run well enough is ok, but when they run as badly as my first two bets of the year have then it does create some doubts, hopefully things will change soon.

No bet today. I had considered Doyen Ta Win (1:35 Clonmel) today, 8/1 outsider in 4-runner field but as she pulled up last time it would have been a speculative choice. She is the only one with course form (3/14 but that was in a 0-100), improved to win 3 handicap hurdles last season before being upped in class. She has a chance back down in class today but is up against a Mullins hotpot. I might have taken the risk if I was in better form, but will just watch now.

Bet #3 - 2:12 Naas - Lightkeeper @ 13/2

Price has made me take a chance on this as it has almost doubled in price from the 7/2 this morning. The favourite Tullyhill was turned over at odds of 1/8 on his hurdling debut, he is very short again at 1/3 and I wanted to take him on with something. There are a few other alternatives as well as the selection, like other newcomers Union Station and Spellacys Cross, and the once raced The Great Unknown who could improve, but Lightkeeper looked the most likely one to me on pedigree.

Lightkeeper's dam Our Victoria was a 5-times winner, winning on her first hurdles start and went on to win three times over fences, rating close to 130. 2nd dam related to top class chaser Our Vic, so pedigree is pretty good.

Lightkeeper has run in 3 point to points, finishing first last time before being demoted. He needs to improve on that IF the favourite runs to his bumper form, but booking of Jack Kennedy first up is a positive.

Best of luck, AKD.

Thanks, Ribot.

Lightkeeper (SP 10/1) ran ok for 2nd but could never get close enough to long odds on favourite, who made all to win, to land a blow.

Bet #4 - 1:22 Fairyhouse - Ballyadam Destiny @ 10/1

Risking another one that is weak in market. Ballyadam Destiny ran a good race when beaten length and half in testing conditions at Limerick over Christmas, form of that race looks ok, the 5th horse won next time. Selection being raised 3 lbs for that 2nd place makes things a bit harder as he is now 6 lbs above his highest winning mark, but there are no obviously well handicapped horses in this race, Where's Frankie who is much shorter price is 13 lbs higher than his last win, despite this I still see him as a danger. And the novices Mint Boy & Gortmillish don't exactly look thrown in from marks of 126 & 123 respectively. It's possible that one of the younger ones will improve but at current prices I am happy to take a chance on Ballyadam.

Selection has won one race in each of last 3 seasons, wins coming on 5th, 12th & 6th start of season, today is only his 4th run this season so maybe a bit early but he has improved each season with the wins coming from ORs of 96, 104 & 109.

Trainer had the 3rd Young Dev (btn 3 lengths) in 2022 running of this race, YD had followed same route having previously finished 3rd in the Limerick race, but he had been beaten 16 lengths at Limerick so there was significant improvement between two races. I am hoping for similar today but even some improvement will help.

Tongue tie has been left off today, not sure what effect that will have, hopefully it will be a positive one, he has won without it in past.

Good Luck AKD :up:

Thanks, Malcolm.

Ballyadam Destiny (SP 9/1) finished only 6th.

Search for my first winner of year continues.

Bet #5 - 1:25 Punchestown - Joyeux Vivo @ 11/2

Backing this more on potential than anything else as his last couple of runs in maiden hurdles have been disappointing despite being well backed last time, and even the 3rd last run wasn't anything special. But he is still interesting, now making his handicap debut from mark of 109 in a race with mostly exposed runners in opposition, and given his connections it wouldn't be a big surprise if he is better than that mark.

I wouldn't say his handicap mark is a lenient one based on performance in 3 maiden hurdles, but before that he had run well on debut to finish 3rd in 4yo bumper at last year's festival here. The 2nd horse is rated 125 and 4th 112 now, so that run showed he has ability. JP McManus' previous best in that race was 6th place with a horse that went on to rate 130+.

Selection was favourite in the morning but has drifted a bit despite there being an important non runner, so might need to keep an eye on market and hope he doesn't drift much more.

There are a few in good recent form, including Ricky Bobby & McGrath From Clune but this looks more competitive than the Cork race they finished 2nd & 4th in. The Grey Falco can be considered based on his British form but he finished tailed off on stable debut last time. Derby Le Thaix is very well handicapped on his old form for Joseph O'Brien but that was a long time ago and although I think he could run well but the fact is this French bumper winner is 0 from 32 over hurdles.

Wait for a winner continues, Joyeux Vivo ran well but found one too good. The winner wasn't on my shortlist but the market got it right again as he was very strong in betting.