BEST of the BETS

Bet #138 - 12:00 Chepstow - Minella Blueway @ 11/8

Short price but still better than I expected especially after Check The Score, who I saw as main danger, is out of the race. There are a couple of expensive buys in the race, Broughshane at £150k and Largy Poet at £85k but neither of them placed on debut despite being fancied in betting. There is every chance that either one of them could improve but that expectation of improvement is reflected in the prices particularly in case of Largy Poet. Minella Blueway already sets a fair standard having placed in both his hurdles starts, including here on debut, and could make good use of his experience.

In 17 previous runnings of this race, 13 winners from just 68 runners that had placed on previous run. In contrast, horses who were unplaced last time are a poor 1 win from 138 runners, newcomers are 3 from 24. Minella Blueway is the only one of market leaders with placed form. Admittedly, this does look a weaker race than past runnings of this race.

There is a slight worry that selection was beaten at odds on last time, but form of race seems fair. Although the winner Itseemslikeit disappointed next time it was in higher class and he had previous good form, and the 3rd had an OR of 118. This looks a weaker race on evidence of form so far.

Pedigree looks ok too, half-brother Priory Park won couple of handicap hurdles (OR 103 & 111) in Ireland.