BEST of the BETS

Bet #124 - 1:30 Fairyhouse - Dragon Rock, 0.5 pt e/w @ 10/1

Late decision to bet, might regret backing this after a huge drift from 3/1 this morning to 10/1 now, but I don't think it would have backed it at earlier price but now feel it's worth risking e/w. He was out of his depth when finishing last in Grade 3 last time, but this is a big drop in class in a handicap where he is top rated on 112.

My main reason for backing him is that I think he might be suited by these testing conditions, he is yet to race on ground this soft but pedigree suggests it will suit. His sire Shantou has highest strike rate on soft worse among stallions in this race, over last 1 year Shantou's progeny has 14.5% strike rate and 0.97 A/E from 291 runners on soft or worse, compared to 10.6% strike rate and 0.77 A/E from 416 runs on other going types. Reason I feel going could be important is that 3 of the current top 4 in betting, namely Broken Ice, Kilashee & Wild Caprice are 0 from 31 (4 places) between them in testing conditions. In

Selection also has the assistance of most experienced jockey in the race. On the negative side, he has a big weight to carry and there are concerns about his jumping as he has failed to complete on two of his last 5 runs. For these reasons I am not too confident but at the price I feel he has a good chance of finishing in first 3 in this company if getting around.