BEST of the BETS

On a losing streak of 8 now, last two bets the previous month and 6 straight losers this month, I am comfortable enough with it so far but don't like them to go on for too long, so hopefully start getting winners over next few days.

Bet #80 - 4:25 Downpatrick - Foxfire Glow @ evens

Short price, which maybe slightly risky given he has been beaten a couple of times at short odds already in his 4-race career, but overall he has shown enough ability.

I liked his 3rd at Punchestown two starts ago, although he was a long way behind the long odds on Horantzau d'Airy from Willie Mullins stable, it was still a good effort. That earned him a rating of 114, which has been revised to 113 after the slightly disappointing effort over 3 furlongs shorter here last time. This ought to be more than good enough to win this, especially considering that he gets the 8 lbs allowance for never having won a race, a situation that leaves him getting weight from the mare (Howaya C D And E) who is actually rated 6 lbs lower than him.

HCD&E finished 3rd in this race last year behind the winner who is now rated 119 but he wasn't getting the weight allowance. 2020 & 2021 winners were both rated 111 and again no allowance, earlier winners of the race have been rated below 110. So with Foxfire's rating of 113 and the 8 lbs allowance it will be considered a huge disappointment if he can't win this. I think the possible dangers could come from newcomers to Rules from Colm Murphy and Gavin Cromwell yards, Scorsese & Kalko Blue, but they will need to be quite good as selection has good placed form.

Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 7 runnings of this race, including in 2018 with the JP McManus owned Touch Base who was only rated 106. Incidentally, Touch Base had also been a beaten favourite in same 19f maiden at the course on his previous run that Foxfire was beaten in this year.

So plenty of positives, chance looks good but of course nothing is certain in this game.